In an encounter with LET Terrorists that started around 9 am in Bazi Mal Upper forests in Kalakote, dist Rajouri, refer map, five soldiers of Indian army died while fighting the terrorists during an operation that started on 22 Nov.

Those who laid down their lives fighting terrorists were Captain M V Pranjal (63 RR) of Mangalore area of Karnataka, Captain Shubham Gupta (9 Para) of Agra of Uttar Pradesh, Havaldar Abdul Majid (Para) of Ajote in Poonch, Lance Naik Sanjay Bist of Halli Padli area of Nainital and Paratrooper Sachin Laur of Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh.

Lets go through the article that was published in May 2023, because the aspects involved then are still applicable.

Background.

The recent attack in Beembhar Gali (BG) near Poonch in which 5 army men lost their lives must make the Govt sit up and take cognisance of the security situation in a holistic manner.

Surely, in these last 9 years that this Govt is in power, it must have realised that Kashmir imbroglio can certainly not be resolved merely by unfurling TIRANGA at Lal Chowk or by revoking article 370. There is still a lot has to be done.

The attack on Indian army vehicle was not just a grenade attack by one odd terrorist but was a well-planned ambush, carried out by several terrorists who fired armour piercing bullets at the vehicle from many directions and thereafter escaped taking away the weapons of the dead soldiers. Perhaps for all we know that those terrorists were waiting for a bigger convoy and it did not turn up.

 This was the second major terror attack this year in Pir Panjal region, earlier in Jan, seven civilians lost their lives and thirteen others were injured in indiscriminate firing by the terrorists in Rajouri.

Why should we be taking this attack seriously?

National security is often understood as the capacity of a nation to mobilise military forces to deter or defend against military aggression by rival states and non-state actors, such as terrorists.

However, we must not overlook the impact of Non-Military dimensions on security. These include; economic inequality, political marginalisation, political exclusion and so on. Very often, when Govts over look or undermine these Non-Military dimensions, it causes frustration, alienation and become a root cause of militancy in the region.

With this as a back drop, we now examine the seriousness of this attack.

One. This incident shows that ISI’s terror infrastructure is still intact, and it could be made operational as and when required. The ISI has been able to keep it live despite all the pressure that India could exert all these years.

Two. USA is now once again reviving its relations with Pakistan and has got them out of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) Grey list, thereby opening the doors to IMF funds in order to bail them out of economic turmoil. Even Russia is improving relations with Pakistan.

Three. After the ambush, the terrorists could easily melt away into the thick forest, taking away the weapons of the dead soldiers. It implies that they had the knowledge of the area. This brings us to the point that there must be locals who might have helped them. This is an indicator that the local militants are now once again growing in confidence and have started assisting the Pakistani terrorists. The attack on Hindus in Rajouri this year substantiates this.

Four. Abrogating article 370 through manipulation, was although appreciated by many but I had written earlier, its success would largely depend on how fast the Govt can restart the democratic process in the state and bring in fresh faces in Kashmir politics who could replace the Muftis and Abdullahs. But this has not happened as yet and so these attacks therefore are a reminder to all of us that in the absence of a comprehensive political settlement that involves all parties, one cannot claim to achieve victory.

Five. The communal environment in the country has given rise to a wide spread sentiment amongst the muslims, both in Kashmir as well as in rest of the country and including amongst those who were considered to be Pro India, that in 1947, they should have gone with Jinnah. This disengagement of Muslims can cost the society dearly in times of crisis. Omar Abdullah’s statement aptly describes this sentiment –“Present day India is not the country that Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had acceded to, the decision "would have been something else" if people had known that the Muslim community's religious rights will not be protected in this country”. Pakistan can exploit these sentiments to its advantage and spread terrrorism in this Rajauri-Poonch area , where it had failed earlier (even at the peak of militancy in Valley).

Six. In such an environment, the Govt might be finding itself in a dilemma; whether to hold elections in Kashmir or not, Because, if the Muftis and the Abdullahs emerge as a power then it will make Central Govt’s task all the more difficult, both within and outside. More so, if there is a surge in terror attacks.

Seven. The ISI might have taken a cue from Imran Khan’s speech at UN Gen assembly a year ago wherein, Imran Khan called Indian Govt as Fascist and hence the ISI named the off shoot of JEM as People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF). This is the same group which has claimed the responsibility for the ambush on the army vehicle. This also gives us an indication about the likely strategy of Pakistan’s ISI and the Pak Govt in near future.

Eight. The Govt today can not take the actions that it took Post Uri and Pulwama incident. It is unlikely that Indian Govt will carry out a surgical strike or an air strike against Pakistan now. This would further embolden Pakistan establishment and mentors of terrorists. The Indian Govt has already come to realisation that more the Pakistan is drawn towards a failed state , the more irresponsible it may become, so they are fooling around the masses that Pakistan may break and POK may join India, on the grounds that India is likely to be more economically prosperous.

Lastly, When we look at all these non-military dimensions in their entirety, including the fact that Indian Government is now increasingly becoming infamous for its Hindutva agenda, for stifling democracy, suppressing freedom of expression, targeting minorities particularly Muslims by its right wing supporters, the rising clamour for Khalistan ; both in India and abroad , there is hence a strong probability that the cumulative impact of all this may have serious repercussions on country’s security.

Conclusion.

Although the muscle power got us some success and it appeared to be serving the National interest initially but geo-political situation can never be static and therefore, it is imperative, we take a holistic and a dispassionate view of all that is happening in the country.

If we do not take corrective steps now particularly on Non-Military dimensions and alter the course, sooner or later, we may find ourselves entangled in a trap of our own making. And one such indicator is right in front of us;

This time, after the recent ambush, in which five Indian soldiers got burnt in the truck and their weapons taken away by terrorists, the Govt could only express its anguish for the terror victims and it is unlikely that it may resort to aggression which it did after the Uri and Pulwama attack. This would only embolden the perpetrators to plan for something big soon.

With Nations increasingly pursuing the foreign policy that serves their national interest, if these non-military dimensions are not taken care of, we may perhaps find ourselves in such Catch 22 situations as we find ourselves now; whether to strike or not.