The visit of Pakistani foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto , to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to be held in Goa is making news these days.
Some feel that as this the first visit to India by a Pakistani foreign minister since 2011, there is something brewing or may be the two foreign ministers may meet on the side lines of the summit.
However, in my opinion Pakistan Bhutto Zardari’s visit is less an attempt to patch up ties with New Delhi than an opportunity to strengthen engagement with the SCO and advance its own foreign-policy interests.
China and Russia are the most dominant partners of this group and Pakistan is the closest ally of former and an important new friend of the later. As a result, Pakistan enjoys a better clout than India in this organisation.
Although, India currently chairs the eight-member group, established in 2001 but its clout in the SCO is limited by the presence of its arch rival China. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has also compelled Russia to be closer to China implying waning Russian influence.
Pakistan and Central Asia.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation comprises of members mainly from Central Asia who do not have direct access to India and with China enjoying a dominant position and Pakistan having land-based accessibility to these states it gives Pakistan an added advantage. Pakistan hopes to deepen engagement to expand trade and connectivity—and it is already succeeding: In 2021, Uzbekistan inked a deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan to develop a transnational rail system. The expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia and Pakistan is likely to open new opportunities for bilateral trade and investment cooperation, and facilitating regional connectivity. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the flagship project of BRI that can offer Central Asian countries, which are mainly Land locked, an access to the Gwadar seaport.
India and Central Asia.
Like Pakistan, India is also endeavouring to develop ties with resource-rich Central Asian states but it suffers a major handicap ; it has no direct accessibility. However, India has compensated by establishing new modes for regular meetings with governments in the region.
India’s close political relations with the erstwhile Soviet Union had helped India to continue old diplomatic ties with Central Asia. Post 1991, after the disintegration of Soviet Union and Due to increasing presence of China, India had to reinvent its Central Asia Policy. Thus in 2012 it formulated a broad-based approach called; Connect Central Asia Policy to develop political, security, economic, and cultural connections.
In 2016 it became a member of Ashgabat Agreement. It is a multimodal transport agreement between India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in order to create an international transport and transit corridor facilitating transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.
The Changing Geo-Political scenario.
Due to the changing geo political situation in the region after the withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan and also the Ukraine war, which has brought Russia closer to China, the Central Asian countries are increasingly becoming important and emerging as a battle ground particularly between USA and China.
Therefore, Pakistan’s Foreign minister visit to Goa may be because, Pakistan does not want to cede any ground to India when it comes to Central Asia.
India after the recent terror attack in Kashmir may not be wanting to revive the relations that too a year prior to the Lok sabha elections, that are due next year. Similarly, Pakistan also is unlikely to forge a dialogue with New Delhi when they are also due for elections and would not like to extend a hand because of India’s Kashmir policy and treatment of Indian Muslims. In Pakistan, there is already a feeling that Pakistan has not done enough for Kashmiri Muslims and now off course the rest of the Indian muslims who are under pressure of Right wing activists.
Conclusion.
Bilawal Bhutto’s visit is therefore a regional necessity for Pakistan and not a bilateral one. Bhutto would not have liked to skip the SCO summit, because not only it would strengthen Pak’s ties with China and Russia but it also allows Pakistan to cultivate deeper ties with Central Asian countries and ultimately limit India's influence in this region.