US speaker Ms Nancy Pelosi, finally landed in Taiwan yesterday , despite the stern warnings issued by China, it is to be seen now, as to how things unfold in near future, in this region.
The events are likely to have implications not only in Taiwan or US or Pacific region, but may be in India as well.
In 1979, US President, Jimmy Carter strategically switched diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (ROC) i.e Taiwan to the People's Republic of China (PRC) on January 1, 1979, to counter the political influences and military threats from the Soviet Union.
The US Embassy in Taipei was 'migrated' to Beijing and the Taiwanese Embassy in the US was closed and it had been supporting Chinese claim of One China. However, it continued providing economic and military support to Taiwan stating that It does not support unilateral change of status through force.
What Next
After what China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said : The US side will bear the responsibility and pay the price for undermining China's sovereign security interests,". It will certainly leave Chinese President Xi fuming and embarrassed, if he does not act , Post Ms Pelosi's visit.
Xi Ping who was unanimously elected as a delegate for the once-in-five-year party Congress to be held in the next few months is looking for a rare third term for President, this meet is scheduled to be held in the second half of 2022.
One can assume that he would not like to appear weak and embarrassed by USA at this meet.
It appears that both were acting in accordance to the MAD MAN Theory.
And this is the danger of this theory.
More so, the above, also indicates that International politics is like India’s domestic politics where there are no permanent allies and foes.
As a matter of fact, USA was compelled to take this kind of action, because, its Global leadership is under Challenge from China and Russia, particularly, after its messed up withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These events found US allies in a precarious situation leaving them exposed to the bullies.
At this stage, we in India must not think that this will have an impact only on US – China relations , rather we need to look beyond ; Can China do to India what Russia did to Ukraine to prove that It is a World power , particularly we also irked China recently when Dalai Lama visited Ladakh. It may not launch an offensive but can surely carry out intrusions across the LAC like it has done previously. OR it may cosy up with India to win friends locally and satisfies India's security concerns by moving its troops back from Friction points in Ladakh region or may be something else.
Only time will tell ; this event may have long term implications on not only US- China relations but also in the entire region or US has finally called the Chinese bluff.