Its been now two days since Defence Minister Rajnath Singh announced the Agnipath scheme for recruitment and career opportunities in the Indian armed forces.

Its now high time we analyse as to what this scheme is all about and how would it impact the armed forces.

Before we analyse lets have a look at what it entails ;

One. The soldiers recruited through this scheme will be called as AGNIVEERS. They would be between the age group of 17.5 and 21 years . THIS SCHEME IS NOT FOR  OFFICERS .

Two. They will undergo a training of SIX months and thereafter serve for three and half years.

Three. Out of these only 25% will be retained and rest will be discharged.

Four. On completion of tenure they will be paid Rs 11.71 lakhs which will be tax free and given a priority in employment in Central reserved Police etc.

Five. The Army's recruitment process for the Agnipath scheme will be the same as it was earlier and no compromises will be made in educational and physical standards .

Six. The recruited persons will be paid a monthly remuneration of Rs 30,000 with a fixed annual increment.

Seven ," Lieutenant General KK Repswal, Chief of Staff Eastern Command said. “, the recruitment for the Agniveer programme in the Indian Army will start in the next three months, after which they will go for a four-year service .

Eight. Agniveers would form a distinct rank, different from any other existing rank and will be assigned tasks based on the organizational requirement.

Nine. Recruitment will be done on All India basis.

Ostensibly the serving officers called this as a fabulous initiative and a 'transformative' induction programme, But the retired Officers have been skeptical about it. Some calling it absolutely rubbish and some been careful in their remarks. So, one can understand the compulsions of the SERVING officers. 

Former Army chief General (retd.) Ved Prakash Malik thanked Union Home Minister Amit Shah for the announcement that the recruits, after completing their four-year tenure, would be given priority for induction in the Central Armed Police Forces and Assam Rifles. He tweeted: “ Agniveer induction has to be based on the annual number of retirees plus deficiencies, if any. This is a small number at unit level. It will be a slow induction process.”

Air Vice Marshal (retd.) Manmohan Bahadur said: “The Agnipath scheme has been the subject of animated debates about its pros and cons. One only hopes that its implications have been thought through well beyond just the issue of cutting down the pension load on the defence budget. There would be many operational fallouts that would need to be tackled without compromising the deterrence and fighting capabilities of the forces”.

Former Northern Army Commander Lieutenant-General (retd.) D.S. Hooda told The Hindu: “Obviously, like any other scheme, there are some advantages... Junior leaders would get better, the government will save on the budget expenses. There are certain challenges as well, of people having apprehensions about the training period; whether the ethos would be strong enough; morale, motivation would be as strong as that of those who serve for a longer period of time.”

“We have to see how to make the scheme a success, let's wait for the first four years, then review, and go back to the government with recommendations. There is a need to adopt a balanced approach,”

Major General (retd.) G.D. Bakshi said: “Was flabbergasted by the Agniveer scheme. I thought initially it was a trial being done on a pilot basis. This is an across the board change to convert Indian armed forces to a short tenure quasi-conscript force like the Chinese. For God’s sake, please don’t do it.”

Lieutenant-General (retd.) Zameer Uddin Shah described the Agnipath scheme as a “retrograde step” and “the most detrimental measure inflicted on armed forces”. “With a year spent on training and six months on pre-release formalities, the soldier will get only 2.5 years to serve which is inadequate to inculcate regimental ethos, affiliation, and discipline,” said the veteran, who retired as the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff (Personnel and Systems). On the view that it could offer employment opportunities, he told The Hindu, “You can’t choose welfare at the cost of the Army’s discipline and regimentation. It is these qualities that have helped us in winning wars.” He recalled an Army maxim, “If it works, don’t fiddle with it.” The veteran said the bulk of retired officers felt that the “step was taken without adequate forethought and consultation with the stakeholders.”

Lieutenant-General (retd.) Vinod Bhatia, the former director of Joint Warfare Studies, described it as a “death knell for armed forces”. He said, “No pilot project, straight implementation. Will also lead to militarisation of society.”

Having read through the above comments we get a sense of the scheme and so following emerges ;

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With the Russian troop buildup near Ukraine’s borders causing anxiety in Western capitals, of imminent war between Ukraine and Russia reminded me of a comedy Hindi movie ; Hungama in which two heroes vying for the heroine had a coincidental encounter in a restaurant , the heroine was also there and both threaten each other ; The dialogues are something like ;

No cricket lover would have forgotten the above Pic which exposed the betting racket in Pakistan's cricket. Cheating as a habit is ingrained in Pakistan's policy makers. Hence, Pakistan since the capture of Afghanistan with the help of Taliban a few months ago has been doggedly pursuing a global campaign to garner support for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, its senior officials including the Foreign Minister and PM made all out efforts to ensure that Taiban Govt gets global recognition.

The gist of Pakistan’s plea has been that ; failure to engage with the Taliban will lead to humanitarian disaster. Even Imran Khan In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, said, “There is only one way to go. We must strengthen and stabilize the current government, for the sake of the people of Afghanistan.”

They expected that world sooner or later on the excuse of humanitarian crisis will fall in line and they all will go laughing to the banks. Unfortunately their calculations went astray.

This inability of Pakistan to get Taliban recognized by the world community and bring funds must have caused immense embarrassment to them and might have emerged as an irritant between Taliban and Pakistan. And it knows that from security point of view the region would become a headache for them rather than for rest of the world. 

Now they have played the last card that was available to them, rope in OIC ; The organistaion of Islamic countries and use their clout to get funds and global recognition for the regime. They are hoping that Islamic brotherhood may work .

Pakistan has many times emphasised that the lack of immediate response would lead to food shortages and create a massive humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Thence the Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said ;

"The OIC Extraordinary session in Islamabad would prove to be a stepping stone in finding solutions to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and this was also an opportunity for world capitals to know about ground realities from Taliban representatives." 

It has been reported that Special representatives on Afghanistan from the United States, Russia, China and European Union would also attend the event. Later a meeting of Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States and Germany, Japan, Italy and Australia would also be held in Islamabad to discuss the Afghan situation.

Ostensibly the aim is to exploit the influence of Muslim Nations collectively to compel the Global community to recognise Taliban.

The Pakistan media has also reported that a delegation from Saudi Arabia including Afghan affairs department head Prince Abdullah bin Khalid bin Saud al-Kabir and Prince Jiluwi bin Turki are attending the special meet.

But the fact is many Islamic countries themselves are wary of fundamentalism and do not wish to encourage such elements in their societies including Saudi Arabia. How far would they go to support the Taliban regime would be known only after the meet is over.

However, The Central Asian nations, foreign ministers have already skipped Pak's OIC meet and instead are attending India-led dialogue .

The future will only tell us whether Pakistan once again be able to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds and be able to dupe the West or this time its Bluff will be caught. 

President Biden said on Thursday that the United States was considering a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 winter olympics at Beijing,. Besides The US some of its allies such as the UK and Australia are also considering a "diplomatic boycott" of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. 

A boycott would mean that government officials would not attend the Games, which are slated to begin in February, though it would not prevent U.S. athletes from competing. This is to exert pressure on China on the issue of Human Rights violations.

Whereas, India participating in the 18th virtual Meeting of the Foreign Ministers of China and Russia  on Friday expressed its support to China to host Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

As New Delhi just a year ago, faced a belligerent China, its support for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games must have perlplexed many, that too when it is an important member of Quad. May be that India has come to a conclusion post recent Quad meet in US that Biden can not be trusted.

Now this leads the countrymen wondering what is Country’s foreign policy vis a vis China which has violated LAC on many occasions and is in occupation of territory in Depsang region, violently attacked our troops at Galwan. Not only that , China has always stood with Pakistan, it raised the article 370 issue in UN Security council, did not allow Hafiz Sayeed be declared as Terrorist at the UN and has displayed no concern for India’s interests in Afghanistan and did not recently attend the meeting organized by Dobhal on Afghanistan.

So, its worth questioning the Indian Govt as to why there is so much of difference in its karni and kathni?

1. Our Trade with China has increased manifolds since Dokhlam and despite Galwan where Indian army lost its gallant soldiers. Despite all the hype of   diluting economic linkages and reduce dependence, India’s merchandise trade with China is growing and may cross the $100 billion mark this year.
    
2. The Govt has no plans of boycotting winter olympics to be held in Beijing in 2022.
3. The Indian army was asked to withdraw from the heights that it captured in 2020 without any reciprocal action from the other side in Depsang.
4. It keeps negotiating with China to get back Depsang plains and blames previous Govt, while frittering away the tactical advantage that Indian army provided by capturing strategic heights.

If we view the above dispassionately, India’s policy vis a vis China has remained the same since China captured Tibet. Its been Confusing.

The Soldier on the front facing China still does not know WHETHER CHINA IS AN ENEMY OR A FRIEND, even after losing some 20 gallant soldiers who were sent by the Govt unarmed to check if the Chinese who have intruded into our territory have gone back or not.

We may not be shouting our lungs out now in favour of China as it was in 1950s but are behaving in the same manner.

India has already lost its status in South Asia, SAARC is almost dead, we have been literally PUSHED out of Afghanistan and no one listens to us in our own backyard ; Nepal, Bangladesh, Srilanka, Myanmar, Bhutan also has just signed a treaty with China. We have just surrendered ourselves.

If we do not use even the limited means at our disposal to express our displeasure at their belligerent ways , then even Quad will be of no use. It will soon get reduced to an annual ritual of Malabar exercise.

China has employed every means at its disposal to undermine India’s status in South Asia and today the situation is that India is left with no reliable ally in the whole world.

There is no harm in pursuing an Independent Foreign Policy but thats exactly what Nehru was trying to do some 70 years back.

If Mr Modi also after getting a huge mandate from people and in possession of colossal resources which were not available with Nehru still reacts like him then one has no right to criticize Nehru, as Nehru inherited a poor Nation and a poor army and could not afford to spend country's hard earned money on unproductive things.

One ersthwile Indian diplomat recently commented ; “The Chinese want global public opinion to be confused about us "

The fact of the matter is ; we can prevent the confusion only when we ourselves are not confused.