In an encounter with LET Terrorists that started around 9 am in Bazi Mal Upper forests in Kalakote, dist Rajouri, refer map, five soldiers of Indian army died while fighting the terrorists during an operation that started on 22 Nov.

Those who laid down their lives fighting terrorists were Captain M V Pranjal (63 RR) of Mangalore area of Karnataka, Captain Shubham Gupta (9 Para) of Agra of Uttar Pradesh, Havaldar Abdul Majid (Para) of Ajote in Poonch, Lance Naik Sanjay Bist of Halli Padli area of Nainital and Paratrooper Sachin Laur of Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh.

Lets go through the article that was published in May 2023, because the aspects involved then are still applicable.

Background.

The recent attack in Beembhar Gali (BG) near Poonch in which 5 army men lost their lives must make the Govt sit up and take cognisance of the security situation in a holistic manner.

Surely, in these last 9 years that this Govt is in power, it must have realised that Kashmir imbroglio can certainly not be resolved merely by unfurling TIRANGA at Lal Chowk or by revoking article 370. There is still a lot has to be done.

The attack on Indian army vehicle was not just a grenade attack by one odd terrorist but was a well-planned ambush, carried out by several terrorists who fired armour piercing bullets at the vehicle from many directions and thereafter escaped taking away the weapons of the dead soldiers. Perhaps for all we know that those terrorists were waiting for a bigger convoy and it did not turn up.

 This was the second major terror attack this year in Pir Panjal region, earlier in Jan, seven civilians lost their lives and thirteen others were injured in indiscriminate firing by the terrorists in Rajouri.

Why should we be taking this attack seriously?

National security is often understood as the capacity of a nation to mobilise military forces to deter or defend against military aggression by rival states and non-state actors, such as terrorists.

However, we must not overlook the impact of Non-Military dimensions on security. These include; economic inequality, political marginalisation, political exclusion and so on. Very often, when Govts over look or undermine these Non-Military dimensions, it causes frustration, alienation and become a root cause of militancy in the region.

With this as a back drop, we now examine the seriousness of this attack.

One. This incident shows that ISI’s terror infrastructure is still intact, and it could be made operational as and when required. The ISI has been able to keep it live despite all the pressure that India could exert all these years.

Two. USA is now once again reviving its relations with Pakistan and has got them out of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) Grey list, thereby opening the doors to IMF funds in order to bail them out of economic turmoil. Even Russia is improving relations with Pakistan.

Three. After the ambush, the terrorists could easily melt away into the thick forest, taking away the weapons of the dead soldiers. It implies that they had the knowledge of the area. This brings us to the point that there must be locals who might have helped them. This is an indicator that the local militants are now once again growing in confidence and have started assisting the Pakistani terrorists. The attack on Hindus in Rajouri this year substantiates this.

Four. Abrogating article 370 through manipulation, was although appreciated by many but I had written earlier, its success would largely depend on how fast the Govt can restart the democratic process in the state and bring in fresh faces in Kashmir politics who could replace the Muftis and Abdullahs. But this has not happened as yet and so these attacks therefore are a reminder to all of us that in the absence of a comprehensive political settlement that involves all parties, one cannot claim to achieve victory.

Five. The communal environment in the country has given rise to a wide spread sentiment amongst the muslims, both in Kashmir as well as in rest of the country and including amongst those who were considered to be Pro India, that in 1947, they should have gone with Jinnah. This disengagement of Muslims can cost the society dearly in times of crisis. Omar Abdullah’s statement aptly describes this sentiment –“Present day India is not the country that Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had acceded to, the decision "would have been something else" if people had known that the Muslim community's religious rights will not be protected in this country”. Pakistan can exploit these sentiments to its advantage and spread terrrorism in this Rajauri-Poonch area , where it had failed earlier (even at the peak of militancy in Valley).

Six. In such an environment, the Govt might be finding itself in a dilemma; whether to hold elections in Kashmir or not, Because, if the Muftis and the Abdullahs emerge as a power then it will make Central Govt’s task all the more difficult, both within and outside. More so, if there is a surge in terror attacks.

Seven. The ISI might have taken a cue from Imran Khan’s speech at UN Gen assembly a year ago wherein, Imran Khan called Indian Govt as Fascist and hence the ISI named the off shoot of JEM as People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF). This is the same group which has claimed the responsibility for the ambush on the army vehicle. This also gives us an indication about the likely strategy of Pakistan’s ISI and the Pak Govt in near future.

Eight. The Govt today can not take the actions that it took Post Uri and Pulwama incident. It is unlikely that Indian Govt will carry out a surgical strike or an air strike against Pakistan now. This would further embolden Pakistan establishment and mentors of terrorists. The Indian Govt has already come to realisation that more the Pakistan is drawn towards a failed state , the more irresponsible it may become, so they are fooling around the masses that Pakistan may break and POK may join India, on the grounds that India is likely to be more economically prosperous.

Lastly, When we look at all these non-military dimensions in their entirety, including the fact that Indian Government is now increasingly becoming infamous for its Hindutva agenda, for stifling democracy, suppressing freedom of expression, targeting minorities particularly Muslims by its right wing supporters, the rising clamour for Khalistan ; both in India and abroad , there is hence a strong probability that the cumulative impact of all this may have serious repercussions on country’s security.

Conclusion.

Although the muscle power got us some success and it appeared to be serving the National interest initially but geo-political situation can never be static and therefore, it is imperative, we take a holistic and a dispassionate view of all that is happening in the country.

If we do not take corrective steps now particularly on Non-Military dimensions and alter the course, sooner or later, we may find ourselves entangled in a trap of our own making. And one such indicator is right in front of us;

This time, after the recent ambush, in which five Indian soldiers got burnt in the truck and their weapons taken away by terrorists, the Govt could only express its anguish for the terror victims and it is unlikely that it may resort to aggression which it did after the Uri and Pulwama attack. This would only embolden the perpetrators to plan for something big soon.

With Nations increasingly pursuing the foreign policy that serves their national interest, if these non-military dimensions are not taken care of, we may perhaps find ourselves in such Catch 22 situations as we find ourselves now; whether to strike or not.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANIs) which for last so many decades were lying dormant despite China taking numerous measures to strangle us, are suddenly seeing a surge in development activities after the visit of PM in 2018 ; under water fibre optics project, GPS motion sensors, automated weather stations, solar plants energy, tourism, military bases etc under the NITI Aayog’s Holistic Development Program for the islands. This has also invited global players to invest in a wide-ranging sector, for instance Japan has given a grant of $3.42 billion (¥4.02 billion) to stabilize the electricity supply in strategically located Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Hence, the current Govt’s determination to develop ANI and investing thousands of crores in development of ports and building a holistic maritime base need to be applauded.

However, before embarking on what it may achieve and what it may not, we should first look into its strategic importance.

One. The archipelago of Andaman and Nicobar Islands comprises of 572 Islands stretching over an area of 450 nautical miles. The northernmost point of the island chain is merely 22 nautical miles from Myanmar, while the southernmost point is only 90 nautical miles away from Indonesia. Hence this should help India counter China's 'String of Pearls' strategy due to its closeness to the 'Strait of Malacca' chokehold.

Two. The islands also dominate the Bay of Bengal and the Six Degree and Ten Degree channels, which are used by over 60,000 commercial ships each year. The Malacca Strait and the Six Degree Channel (also called as Great Channel has a width of 163 Km (88 nautical miles between Indira Point in Great Nicobar and Rondo Island of Indonesia’s Aceh Province) are two of the nine primary bottlenecks that govern access to this region. Even submarines, reportedly, surface when passing through this choke point to avoid accidents. So, this development lures even those powers who are getting sick of China’s growing belligerence to this strategically located archipelago.

Three. Reportedly, nearly 70,000 out of the 1,20,000 ships sailing through the Indian Ocean pass through the 'Strait of Malacca' and the neighbouring Six Degrees channel. This is today the world’s busiest trade route - Around 80 percent of the world’s maritime oil trade passes through the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Hence, if one has a major naval base in its vicinity(Strait of Malacca) imagine what colossal strategic and tactical advantage one would derive vis a vis adversary.

Three. China, being a bulk importer of Oil, its energy security is extremely vulnerable and is hugely dependent upon Indian Ocean Sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) that pass through narrow choke points including Malacca strait. Now with this ability to choke China at Malacca strait, China's Oil supply from the Middle East may be brought to a screeching halt and this implies we can now inflict damage to them where it hurts them the most i.e its economy. So, if they hurt us on Land we can hit them hard in seas.

The Flip Side.

It would be naïve on our part to believe that Chinese would not have taken steps to overcome its ‘Malacca Dilemma’ ( The fear of a maritime blockade at the Straits of Malacca Strait) that would grant India and the newly formed Quad group, a tremendous advantage, if blocked.

As a matter of fact, China, being the largest importer of Oil, has been consistently working to surmount the above challenge over the last few decades in order to ensure its Energy security.

It took steps towards modernising its navy and commissioned almost 80 ships in last five years. It tried strangling India by occupying a chain of islands in IOR, established a naval base at Djibouti (which controls access to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz) and developed China – Pakistan economic corridor, a 3000km long highway linking Gwadar to Xinjiang region in China.

Gwadar Port in Pakistan will provide China an alternative route bye passing the Malacca Strait, which we Indians are intending to choke. The shipping route from the Middle East to China, via the Malacca strait, is about 12,000km long whereas, this sea-and-land based corridor via Gwadar port is barely 3000 kms. It, thus not only secures and reduces the passage time for China's energy imports but would also provide a shortcut for boosting the trade between Europe and China.

Secondly, although developing a naval base at ANI will provide India an immense strategic advantage but it is unlikely that the same can be used to threaten China during a skirmish on the land border. Going by the recent trends India will avoid escalating a conflict by blocking the Malacca strait. If one cannot allow its ground troops to open fire at the intruders then its rather stupid to believe that the Navy will be allowed to block the choking point; Malacca strait.

Thirdly, India undoubtedly has taken steps to counter the growing Chinese influence in IOR. However, India cannot match the economic prowess of China, which has over the years emerged as one of the largest trading partners, largest investors. largest donors for all these neighbouring countries of IOR.

Expansion of Area of Influence & The Challenges.

The strategic importance of Andamans was although, realised long back when Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC), India’s first and only tri-service theatre command was established almost two decades ago, however, for some reasons it was not pursued to its logical end.

In this sense developing the archipelago as a holistic maritime base is a visionary step which may serve India’s long term strategic and maritime business objectives.

Two. India could also use these facilities for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Three. In future, ANI could also serve as a permanent base for Special Forces and long range all weather fighter and maritime recce aircrafts. This will go a long way in extending India’s military influence well beyond its Economic zone.  

Four. With the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific region and the need to check China’s growing belligerence, the international community is getting together into a collaboration to ensure conduct of safe trade through this region. The ANI therefore, will help India to occupy centre stage in the Global maritime strategy in the years to come.

Five. Any Strategy to identify and target Chinese vulnerabilities and sensitivities, is likely to help India in the long run to counter China, which is going to remain its formidable foe as India grows in stature.

However, notwithstanding the above, our challenges on the LAC, may still continue or may become stiffer, because;

One. China reportedly has the largest maritime force having 355 vessels on its inventory and is intending to enhance it to 460 by 2030. Although their quality and effectiveness may be a debatable aspect but even then, this is many times more than what India has. Therefore, despite having a base in vicinity of strait, it’s not easy for India to escalate the conflict to a level of blocking that on each such skirmish on land.

Two. This interest shown by other powers in the development of port and its militarisation will surely be viewed by China as a step to check its influence. Although, all this development is the outcome of China’s growing belligerence but this may have its own implications for India in times to come as it may get engaged in the strategic competition between the two rival powers ; USA and China.

Three. If this capability is not used to project India’s power against China’s belligerence and aggression on Land this may serve no purpose. We may therefore be spending colossal amount of money in developing military facilities in ANI but may fail to use that as deterrence. Rather in case of any conflict against this formidable enemy which is many times superior to us, we would be employing a huge force in defending those facilities.

Four. With China developing an alternate route via Gwadar Port, China’s dependence on Malacca would be greatly reduced.

In view of the above, therefore we need to ask ourselves;

Are we over extending ourselves militarily and playing into enemy’s hands who is compelling us to do so? We have been compelled by China to deploy more forces on LAC , almost three times more than what existed a few years ago and now in a bid to counter China we have extended the battle field, little realising that China has very deep pockets and militarily many times superior.

Are we therefore not stretching our resources? India is although a Three Trillion economy but has one of the lowest per capita incomes, even Bangladesh, which is barely a One trillion economy, is catching up with us, therefore it needs to spend its money more judiciously and sensibly on military.

Are we not falling prey to the allurement of becoming a world power before improving the condition of our human resource? We are already at a stage where we may miss taking advantage of demographic dividend.

We have seen in last few decades many nations crumbling under their own weight. One of them was USSR who was forced by its adversary to stretch itself beyond its means.

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 Pakistan’s founder, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, was convinced about the strategic importance of Pakistan. In an interview a month after independence in 1947, Margaret Bourke-White of Life magazine painted a vivid picture of Jinnah’s expectations: “‘Pakistan is the pivot of the world, as we are placed’ — Jinnah revolved his long forefinger in circles — ‘on which the future position of the world revolves.’”

He was not very wrong in his assessment as the west has always remained interested in it and hardly anything has changed. USA and West despite being aware of Pakistan’s duplicity with terrorists and what it is upto, still prefers to walk with them.

Although, President Joe Biden had abandoned Afghanistan two years ago, it was a matter of time that Pakistan would use its strategic leverage to once again win concessions from the U.S as has been happening for past 70 years.

It took just One Year

It did not take great brains to predict as to how things would move, after US senator Ms Ilhan Omar, from Biden’s Democratic Party, visited Pakistan , a year ago and commented "Kashmir should get more attention from the United States." Thereafter, US invited Bilal Bhutto , the young foreign minister of Pakistan to US where he met the US Secy of States, Mr Blinken when the Indian PM was busy in Quad summit at Tokyo. Then came the news that Pakistan has met all the conditions of The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and will probably be out of the Grey list and then it was followed up with the F 16 deal, giving a stupid justification, that it is being done to bolster Pakistan’s ability for counter terrorism. And now a year later of start of this cozying up process, the US Ambassador to Pakistan visits POK and calls it Azad Kashmir.

Although the Indian Foreign minister Dr Jaishankar, expressed his sentiments as strongly as he could, but it is not likely to make much difference to the US-Pakistan relations. He said “ For someone to say I am doing this because it is all counter-terrorism content and so when you are talking of an aircraft like a capability of an F-16 where everybody knows, you know where they are deployed and their use. You are not fooling anybody by saying these things."

Thereafter, when asked about the US-Pakistan relationship he once again without mincing his words said "Very honestly, it's a relationship that has neither ended up serving Pakistan well, nor serving the American interests. So, it is really for the United States today to reflect on what the merits of this relationship are and what do they get by it."

 So, despite all the noise of isolating Pakistan, once again, we are back to square one, where we began. UK is playing cricket with them these days in Pakistan and Australian team had also just finished their tour and Pakistan has cleared its backyard – Afghanistan- and has acquired , what it always desired ; Strategic depth. On top of that, when asked about the opposition by Indian Government on the F16 deal, the U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said ; “ The United States had independent relations with India and Pakistan. The relationship we have with India stands on its own; the relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own, we also want to do everything we can to see to it that these neighbours have relations with one another that are as constructive as can be possible."

In view of the above, when we look at the US-PAKISTAN and US - India relations, there are a few aspects that stand out ;

1. International politics is all about interests, after all we are also supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine, because of our national interests. So, it’s pointless to speak harshly against USA because, US also has its own strategic interests. The Pot ( We) cannot call the kettle black.

2. Symbolism does not work, it may help in domestic politics to get votes and few applauds on Whatsapp, but in International politics, it may cause more harm. In order to negotiate your way, through the rough waters of International politics one needs to use the oars sensibly, as one scholar had put across wisely ; The oars give power but also teach humility. What it actually implies is - one does not have to be blunt to an extent of insulting others publicly  or in a condescending manner, tighten your jaws, clench your fists and show off your muscles, inorder to prove that You are a tough leader. Even a most mild-mannered guy can be a tough leader and a tough negotiator. In this modern era, courtesy all the intelligence gathering capabilities, nothing is hidden from your adversary, so its futile to show off.

3. Pakistan‘s efforts to use its leverage as a US ally, to resolve Kashmir conflict might not have been successful but it will be foolish to believe that after the abolition of article 370, the Kashmir dispute is over, rather it might have just taken a new turn .

4. It would be wrong to consider that US- Pakistan relationship has neither served Pakistan well nor served the American interests. As a matter of fact, had it not served their interests they would not have been cozying up again ;-

A. US and Pakistan compelled Russia to withdraw from Afghanistan and Pakistan has successfully used US as leverage against China.

B. The United States has long been Pakistan’s largest export market.

C. The United States has also been a leading investor in Pakistan for the past 20 years. In recent years, U.S. direct investment in Pakistan has increased by 50 percent. Major U.S. investments are concentrated in consumer goods, chemicals, energy, agriculture, business process out-sourcing, transportation, and communications. Undoubtedly, United States would like to deepen commercial ties with Pakistan.

D. Pakistan is located at the door step of most disturbed areas and oil rich countries hence, indisputably it will play an important role towards attaining global peace and also safe transit of crucial resources.

Conclusion.

Despite, the cordial relations between USA and Pakistan, since last 70 years the successive Indian Governments, had to never compromise with the national interests. We might have been weak economically but still carried out nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998, did not sign NPT and MTCR, we continued developing our missiles programme, we continued fighting terrorists in Kashmir, fought the Kargil war and all this we did without any clamor, self aggrandizement and bragging.

So, there is no reason to get upset with US-Pakistan getting close again. If the US feels that its relations with Pakistan have its own merits so are ours. However, we must refrain from this temptation of displaying superciliousness and arrogance publicly; it may fetch us some applause on Social media but is not likely to help our cause in International politics.

Just a few months ago I had written India in 2024 may find itself in a tight spot ; https://www.bharatamrising.com/latest-in-geo-strategy/india-in-2024-may-find-itself-in-a-tight-spot

US manipulated the Pakistani establishment and got Imran Khan out of the way, sent  Ilhan Omar, a senator from Biden’s Democratic Party, who visited POK and after her visit said "Kashmir should get more attention from the United States." Thereafter, US invited Bilal Bhutto , the young foreign minister of Pakistan to US where he met the US Secy of States, Mr Blinken when the Indian PM was busy in Quad summit at Tokyo. Then came the news that Pakistan has met all the conditions of The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and will probably be out of the Grey list and then it follows it up with the F 16 deal, wherein, US will be supplying F 16s , which they claimed is being done to bolster Pakistan’s ability for counter terrorism.

Dr Jaishankar , the Indian foreign minister on his visit to US very rightly answered when asked by a reporter about US selling the F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan to meet its current and future counterterrorism threats.

He said ' For someone to say I am doing this because it is all counter-terrorism content and so when you are talking of an aircraft like a capability of an F-16 where everybody knows, you know where they are deployed and their use. You are not fooling anybody by saying these things."

Thereafter, when asked about the US-Pakistan relationship he once again without mincing his words said "Very honestly, it's a relationship that has neither ended up serving Pakistan well, nor serving the American interests. So, it is really for the United States today to reflect on what the merits of this relationship are and what do they get by it."

The International politics is fluid and its all about National interests - today you might be a center of attraction but tomorrow you may become redundant. What counts therefore in the long run is; How is your country performing.

If we do well, there is no fear, let US bloody give F 16s or any war machine to Pakistan and let any senator visit Pakistan and rake up any issue , however, if you are not performing then all this hurts.