Restoring Peace in war torn Afghanistan is surely one of the most complex problems, as its not about finding solutions but because the parties involved in the dispute have little concern for lives. They can not think beyond their religion. So, despite thousands being displaced, killed, injured and Afghanistan turned into a rubble, one can still not see light at the other end of the tunnel.
After United States and Taliban signed a landmark agreement in Feb20 leading to a political settlement between Kabul and the Islamic insurgents wherein, it was decided tthat the U.S. forces were to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021, The new US President has now given strong indictaions that he would withdraw his forces by Oct21.
However, despite the agreement the peace has been elusive and Afghanistan has seen a horrifically violent few weeks. Nearly 400 security forces and civilians have been killed in April, according to New York Times, since November 2020. Nearly 200 people were killed during the first week of May alone, including students killed near their school recently in the worst attack in 2021 so far.
This violence is clearly an indicator to the various stake holders of what is in store and what Taliban is capable of, once the US leaves.
It would be naïve to believe that US Govt is not aware of the dangerous path it is treading as any withdrawal can set the whole region on fire like Syria and the increase in violence in and around the Afghan capital over the past year leaves no one in doubt about the Taliban’s intentions.
USA’s Justification.
President Joe Biden, despite the violence against Afghan Policemen, citizens and students has stuck to his decision and rather has justified his withdrawal decision by citing the diminished terrorist threat to the United States.
USA after having lost almost 2300 soldiers and 20000 injured is now no more interested in this war as it believes that it has weakened the terrorist groups and strengthened the security of its mainland to such an extent that no terrorist can ever penetrate that.
After having suffered so many casualties, it would be stupid on any ones part to blame USA for withdrawing its forces , even if USA is to be blamed for the creation of a monster because the conditions that existed then, that lead to its creation were entirely different.
Secondly, USA also feels that it should not be fighting a war in some one else’s back yard when its own security is not impinged. If at all anyone should be interested in curbing the menace of Taliban, it should be Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia and China. And if they not willing to take a driver’s seat, why should USA be ?
Lastly, one cannot blame the USA also for this because they did try to rope in India, China, Russia and Iran into it but they all preferred a policy of wait and watch.
Pakistan and China the Main Beneficiaries.
Pakistan’s close ties to the Taliban make it a key player in the peace process, despite all the pressure by Bush, Obama, Trump, Pakistan has continued to support its Jehadis, whom they term as their assets. The Taliban supported by Pakistan hence will remain a force to reckon with in foreseeable future. And even if Pakistan signs a peace agreement with Afghan govt brokered by USA , it would surely be broken once USA leaves.
China, has discreetly strengthened its presence in Afghanistan, by enhancing its diplomatic and economic ties with Afghanistan,. Chinese interests in Afghanistan are largely associated with economic interests as it hopes to integrate Afghanistan into Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Pakistan by now has already become a vassal state of China. So, Once USA leaves the field - China, Pakistan and Afghanistan under Taliban may emerge as a powerful entity in this region.
The Countries Who believe in Democratic Values Must Unite.
Although initially it will be the neighbouring states like Iran and India which may feel the impact as this victory of Taliban will be construed as a victory of Islamic fundamentalists Jehadis over the democratic values of modern world. India which is still far from achieving social and communal harmony may feel the heat. As Samuel Huttington in his Book ; The Clash of civilizations had mentioned – it is a conflict of values and so ultimately the impact of these emboldened Islamic fundamentalists will surely reach the US mainland and harm its interests elsewhere.
Instead of withdrawing from Afghanistan leaving it at the mercy of barbaric Taliban Jehadis, the nations whose security is likely to be impinged must put their heads together and ensure that such forces who nurture medieval values are weakened and if cannot be annihilated completely must be made redundant.
They must think twice before giving away the ground that was won after a tremendous loss of life because once this is lost, it will be very difficult to regain it.
Author. Col N Bhatnagar is an alumnus of NDA, Prestigious Def Services Staff College and XLRI. He served in Indian army as an Infantry Officer in all parts of the country and also in Srilanka and has also worked with Reputed Companies - Power, Hospitality and Health Care sector . He has also worked as a National Assesssor of CII for its CII-EXIM Bank Award and HR Excellence award. He has also authored Three Books.
Disclaimer. The views expressed are of Author.