Video Link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVG7wZdvPY8
- Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi went to Russia - his first bilateral visit in the third term, He was there from 08-09 July 2024 and thereafter went to Austria 09-10jul. Now when the entire west is standing against Putin and has placed all kinds of sanctions , it is natural to ask why did PM visit Russia at this hour.
Perhaps ;
One. Russia’s Shift towards Beijing. Probably on the top of his mind was Moscow's gradual drift towards Beijing. Ever since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the consequent western sanctions on Moscow, President Vladimir Putin has become increasingly close to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
In May, President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing, and had also met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan ahead of this year's Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, which Prime Minister Modi did not attend. The recent meetings between Putin and Xi might have raised some concerns in India about Russia's increasing closeness to China,
Two. A Common -cause in the Changing geo-political situation. May be the two countries are finding common cause against the West - led by United States - in the emerging geopolitical situation following the Russia-Ukraine war.
Three. Russia is not cornered. Aleksei Zakharov, a Moscow-based expert on Russia-India relations, told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that "India wants to ensure Russia has alternatives and that it isn’t cornered and doesn’t have to put all its eggs into the Chinese basket."
Four. India’s ties are not getting diluted. Former foreign secretary and ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal said that PM Modi's visit aims to end any misgivings that India's ties with Russia are being diluted due to Western pressure.
Both the countries have been close allies ever since the days of the Cold War, with Russia being the top supplier of arms to India for many years.
Moreover, India also stepped up its purchase of discounted Russian oil following the Western sanctions, despite initial objections from US and some European countries.
According to WSJ, strong ties with Russia are imperative for India especially due to its deteriorating relations with China following the Galwan Valley clash of 2020.
Five. Difficult to Contain China in the Region. As Nandan Unnikrishnan, head of the Eurasia program at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank, told WSJ that if Russia becomes a "junior ally of China", it will be impossible to contain Beijing in the region.
Conclusion.
So, in view of all these India will have to tread a fine line as it tries to balance its ties with US, which has been leading the sanctions call against Russia since the invasion.
Finally , this visit has surely antagonised the US . US Ambassador Eric Garcetti, while addressing a press conference in New Delhi on Thursday, indirectly criticised the meeting saying that India should not take the US's friendship "for granted".
Meanwhile, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan cautioned New Delhi that a "bet on Russia as a long-term, reliable partner is not a good bet" and Moscow would side with Beijing over New Delhi in case of a conflict
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2. Terror attacks in Doda, Kathua, Poonch, Rajauri . The recent surge in terror attacks in the Jammu region, south of the Pir Panjal range, has sounded an alarm among security agencies. Ground observations suggest a strategic shift by Pakistan's intelligence agency, ISI, shifting its focus from Kashmir to South of Pirpanjal, where it has never been successful..
The terror attacks in Jammu have been of high impact. In the past 32 months, 70 people, including 52 security personnel and 18 civilians have been killed in terror incidents in Jammu region. One reason for this shift could be the changing geopolitical situation. On 27 Jul One Pakistani Border action team even attacked Indian Post. BATs had become a thing of past
Lets examine why this sudden surge ;
One. Jammu, Doda, Rajouri, Poonch have diverse population and Jammu particularly has strategic significance, where these militant groups aim to exploit communal tensions and create discord. Reports indicate that at least 50 foreign terrorists have infiltrated into the forests.
Two. Lieutenant General BS Jaswal (retd), Gen Hasnain have pointed out that troop density south of the Pir Panjal range has decreased due to redeployment of forces to Ladakh amid the ongoing standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control, which the Pak supported terror groups are now exploiting.
Three. There are few changes that have taken place since Indian Govt had started thumping its chest after the two strikes across the LC. Those changes are ;
Alpha. USA is no more engaged and is bleeding in Afghanistan. It does not have to pressure Pakistan anymore and is out of this India- Pakistan saas bahu feud.
Bravo. So, like the Indian External minister often talks about India’s Strategic freedom and freedom of choice, so does the US also has. It helped Pakistan to get out of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and also helped secure financial aid from IMF to stabilise its economy. It does not want to leave that leverage that it enjoys over Pakistan and become totally dependent on China. That’s in India’s favour also.
Charlie. Russia’s attack on Ukraine further complicated the situation for India as our old ally started getting closer to China.
Delta. Our relations with China nose-dived post Galwan and threat to Ladakh . As a result the 3500 kms of LAC has to be guarded like LC wherein every inch is guarded. So, Chinese have succeeded in dissipating our resources all over . The more this threat grows on LAC the more difficult it will become for us to focus on LC and areas in depth in Kashmir.
Four. Given the fact that article 370 has been abrogated and the centre in its enthusiasm thought that it can bull doze and side line the old leaders of Kashmir and be able to bring in young ones in the main stream of Indian politics has perhaps antagonised even those who have been standing firm with India against all odds. One should not take lightly the statement of Omar Abdullah here , he had said ; had we known in 1947 that Indian muslims will be treated in this manner, we would have taken a different decision. Although he lost but lets not forget he lost to some one whose love for India is well known. Hence, taking a call to hold elections is going to be tough for the Govt.
All the above including the deteriorating communal situation in the country, we as a nation are heading towards tumultuous times as far as security is concerned.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
3. Tragedy at Hathras. On 02 July a tragedy struck at Hathras when a Baba’s congregation led to a stampede in which 121 people lost their lives mainly women and children. The tragedy at Hathras was unfortunately inevitable, much like it could have been during Char dham yatra in Uttarakhand this year when thousands crowded the place lacking the necessary infrastructure. It could have also occurred in Sehore last year when lakhs gathered at an Ashram near Bhopal.
Many are blaming the administration for being negligent and not making adequate arrangements for the devotees who came at the call of their Baba. However, few are questioning the Baba himself, who claims to have magical powers and deceives thousands.
The tragedy involving the followers of Bhole Baba underscores my point: religious faith often lacks rationale, logic, and is completely blind. Nehruji's effort to instil a scientific temper in society, as outlined in Article 51A, is now largely vilified.
Religion is NOW the corner stone of all our political and social life and there is no escaping.
When the educated class fails to question and is itself ensnared by what Marx described as the "opium of the masses," how can it lead by example and encourage rural folks to develop a scientific temper and question these Babas? The educated class has its own Babas who speak English.
The educated class therefore has lost all moral authority to question others on this path of religious intoxication.
Secondly, it is pointless to blame the Govt officials for the negligence because, the Ruling Govt has not left them capable to question the Babas, Swamis, Kanwarias and so on.
One can refer to my article of Feb 2023 , wherein I questioned the path we as a society are treading.
If we introspect dispassionately, we would notice that we are surely being driven towards obscurantism, orthodoxy by a nexus of swamis, politicians, and many other stake holders.
Finally, if we do not mend our ways even now, things would further slip out of our hands and we shall take India to medievalism. Instead of routing out the practices of medieval era we are, in the guise of culture and faith encouraging them. We have stopped questioning them and rather humiliating those who are questioning those medieval practices and irrational beliefs.