Approximately half a century after the Yom Kippur war of 1973, where the Egyptian army unexpectedly over ran the supposedly impregnable Bar Lev line in under two hours, Israel has once again been taken by surprise, once more reminding that – No defense is impregnable and the stability in the Middle East is still elusive.

On the morning of October 7th, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an unprecedented assault, in terms of scale and scope - infiltrating 22 Israeli towns and army bases and launching thousands of rockets towards cities, including Jerusalem. This event is likely to have a profound psychological impact on Israelis, akin to the shock felt in the United States after the September 11 attacks.

Reports have indicated that at least 1,200 Israelis have lost their lives, with an equal number wounded and nearly 150 taken hostage by Hamas. Predictably, Israel responded forcefully and brutally, for which it is known, causing collateral damage to civilians, as emphasized by Israeli President Netanyahu's vow to bring a mighty and unprecedented fight against the enemy.

The magnitude of this terrorist attack and Israel's retaliatory actions are expected to have significant military and geopolitical repercussions.

Its important to go through the various aspects of it :

1. There is a possibility that Israel may invade and temporarily occupy Gaza to rescue the hostages, which would be a departure from past practices. This could escalate the situation, as Hezbollah, a Lebanon based terror group might also try to open the second front.
2. When nations who were once Israel’s sworn enemies were signing peace treaties with Israel , including Saudi Arbia which was in the process of doing so, due to the diplomatic efforts of US President, such an attack is likely to derail this move.

          Recently even the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, had gone public with affirmations that some sort of deal with Israel seemed plausible. In an interview with Fox News last month, he said that talk of normalization was “for the first time, real.”

          It is to be seen as to how long this incident can derail this deal. In my opinion, it will depend on how long this conflict lasts and how many Palestinians die and the damage caused by Israeli forces. 

     3. Russian President Putin's response to the Hamas attack is not sympathetic to  Israel, possibly due to Israel's lack of support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Rather Russia has blamed the western world and Israel for this terror attack as they have failed to resolve the root cause of this conflict. Putin will also get some relief as the world’s attention will now be drawn towards Israel rather than Ukraine war. This event may divert global attention from the Ukraine crisis.

   4. India has issued a cautious statement, considering the fact that it has been facing a similar challenge back home, expressing solidarity with Israel while advocating for the resumption of direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine. India emphasizes the universal obligation to observe humanitarian law and combat international terrorism, considering its own history with terrorism.

  5. Hamas' goal may be to take hostages to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, a tactic they have used in the past. This issue is deeply emotional for Israel and has led to significant concessions, with the government having paid a high price in the past for the return of its citizens. In 2006, Gaza militants seized an Israeli hostage — and held him for five years until he was exchanged for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, many of them convicted of deadly terrorist attacks against Israelis.

 In 2006 , Hezbollah group has launched a cross-border raid and abducted two Israeli soldiers. The remains of the two soldiers were returned to Israel in 2008 as part of a prisoner exchange, including some convicted hard core terrorists, in exchange for the soldiers’ bodies.

  6. The European Union briefly suspended development funding to the Palestinian Authority but reversed its decision under pressure from certain member states – Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

  Lastly, but the most important, How could such an attack take place and the iron wall as it is called could be breached by militants. It could not have happened without months of planning, recce and rehearsals by the Hamas terrorists. What was the Israeli army and its intelligence respected all over the world for its professionalism doing?

For the answers to these questions we need to look within the country.

For last two decades Far Right leader Netanyahu has been thriving on divisive politics, its defence minister and even army chief had been warning the Politicians about the consequences of the divisive politics on the socio -political front and security but their warnings were mocked at by Netanyahu publicly. Netanyhau created a make believe world where Israel could manage the conflict and prosper rather than finding a solution with Palestinians.

Offcourse the Palestinain leaders after Arafat and Hamas are equally responsible for non resolution of conflict.

Although, the opposition in Israel has stood firmly behind Netanyahu and has for the time being cancelled its protests against Netanyahu, but this is the first time after a decade long rule that his reputation stands tarnished that had been carefully nurtured - tough administrator.  This will  also give much needed reprieve to Netanyahu as he was facing a tough challenge from the public against curtailing the powers of Judiciary. 

Conclusion.

The recurring cycle of limited Israeli military operations in the occupied territories has not yielded lasting solutions. While there may be a pressure for a large-scale military operation, this is unlikely to address the root causes of the conflict. Hamas leaders are likely to have fled using underground tunnels by now, leaving the innocent civlians to face the Isreali brutality.

Is there really any difference between brutal Israel and a Terrorist organisation?

Someone rightly pointed out, “ In many ways this is a prestige strike by Hamas, to remind the Israelis and the world that we’re here and can hurt you in ways you can’t anticipate. The resolution of the conflict can not be left to only Palestinians and Israel, the Arab world also has a stake.”

If we consider this incident holistically, we may find a few lessons for India as well. Security is not only about Military its equipment and Intelligence , it has socio-political dimensions as well.

Will Putin be able to secure control over the annexed regions?Will he be able to win the war? If not, then will he be able to get his Nation out of this turmoil? When Ukrainians are launching counter attacks and regaining lost ground, does Putin has a Plan? Afterall, no one with basic military knowledge would support this idea that by bombing electric power projects Russia will win the war. Rather the chances are that such attacks on civilians can only strengthen the resolve of Ukrainians.

So, there are no clear answers and that’s the main worry; where will all this ultimately lead us all to? The whole world is facing the impact of this war in one way or the other but none has the answer.

This war has not only thrown up many questions but its outcome also is likely to have far reaching consequences for many Nations, besides Ukraine and Russia ;

1. Can smaller nations be left to fend for themselves when bullied by their big neighbours with powerful armies? If that is allowed and Big Nations look the other way, then Taiwan, Phillipines, Nepal, Bhutan even India may have to face its consequences in the near future.
2. Every society, including Russia, has their share of Ultra Nationalists, Nationalists, Religious fundamentalists, Seculars and Liberals, and the neutrals who are on no one’s side but just wish to live in peace and amicably. These groups or components of the society often operate at cross purposes and the influence of these groups on the decision making depends majorly on one factor: which group wields more influence over the ruler or in other words which group has helped the most to keep the ruler in power. Putin who has apparently retained power due to the Nationalists and Ultra Nationalists - who believed and carried out extensive propaganda that Putin will bring back the lost glorious days of Soviet era - still enjoys popular support in Russia, despite the setbacks in war and the military mobilization scheme not finding favour with the Russian population. Therefore, extricating the Nation out of war at this stage becomes all the more difficult. Ostensibly, the whole of Russia must have rejoiced when its army had almost reached Kiev.
3. What is Moscow’s Plan now as all its Plans till now have failed to deliver the objectives of war?The absence of clear answers is likely to push all these groups; Ultranationalists, Nationalists, Liberals into conflicting positions and many of them are likely to be pushed to look for better survival strategies. After all, no one wants to end up on the wrong side of history and also face punitive action from Putin’s henchmen. The easiest thing at this stage for the Putin supporters, therefore, is to blame the military for this debacle. This is what is happening in the Russian media and Putin is keeping quiet and as a result, his agents in media are now getting increasingly brave in criticizing the army.

All this must be happening in Russia regardless of the fact that the military has been the key institution on which Putin has relied in his war against Ukraine and push his Nationalist agenda. While ordinary Russians, fed on Nationalist agenda, remain behind Putin, there is no way the war is likely to end soon.

Putin’s decision to launch the war was opposed by its Liberals who were already marginalized. Some of them must have rallied around Putin with very different motives and opted to submit; the easiest and safest strategy to survive. Ofcourse the Nationalists and Utra Nationalists must have rejoiced every victory at the front; even the killings of hapless Ukrainians and their exodus. But, after Ukraine held its defences and launched its unexpected counterattack and started regaining lost ground those rejoicing in Russia must now be looking for scapegoats and the military is always the easiest scapegoat.

Last month, the bridge connecting Russia and Crimea was blown up. Russian troops appeared to be exhausted; afterall they have been fighting for months now and the mobilization is faltering, and people are resisting. It was obvious that Putin had to resort to something more cruel and devastating and so came the massive missile strike against Ukrainian cities and power projects.

Now that Iran has also reportedly jumped into this war by sending its troops into Crimea and helping Russia in this war with its lethal drones, this will likely impact the decisions of many nations who have been sitting on the fence, particularly Israel.

Conclusion.

If we look back and study the situation which led to world war II, we would notice a few glaring similarities:

1. It started with one nation and his leader trying to regain its lost glory.
2. Few nations, which played an important role in expanding the war were ruled by Nationalists, Ultranationalists and Expansionists: Nazis in Germany, Mussolini in Italy, Emperor Hirohito in Japan and the rest trying to avoid a conflict, initially kept looking the other way, till the war came to their door step. 
3. 
4. Every nation, barring a few, got sucked into the conflict as the Ultranationalist Leaders from Germany, Japan and Italy kept pushing their agenda and reached a point where they could not revert their decision and brought miseries to their countrymen as well as the World.
5. Todays environment is the mirror image of the setting that existed some 82 years back prior to the WW II - the slogans , the public outlook and  the Leaders - who talked of “One Nation, One Culture”. “  Through Reason or by Force”, “One people, one goal, one faith”, “For God, for the people, for nature, and for the country”, “Nothing is ever won in history without bloodshed." “We belong to you".

It is said, that history repeats itself in one way or the other although the players may change and who knows we might be just on the brink of it.

Ground the Common Factor.

The one thing that remains common as one graduates from tactical to strategic level thinking and planning is the - Ground.

At the sub unit level in army, it is important to identify the GTI (Ground of Tactical Importance) to plan the defensive/offensive operations, whereas at higher level it is the Vital Ground and at National level it is about the Geo-Political objectives and Geo- strategy .

Political objectives here do not mean Objectives of a Ruling party. For a layman it would mean ; The Geo-Political objective in 1971 was Liberation of East Pakistan where as military objective was Capture of Dacca which automatically lead to achievement of the Geo- Political objective.

In this regard, I will draw attention to my article titled ; US -Pakistan Cozying up Again !

In which I had mentioned about what Jinnah had felt about the geo-political importance of Pakistan. He had said, while moving his long fingers on the world map –:

“‘Pakistan is the pivot of the world, on which the future position of the world revolves.’”

So, the “Ground” always remains important and only its dimensions and the scope get enlarged.

Therefore, one can now try to define “geo politics” as the study or the application of the influence of political, physical and economic geography on the politics, national power, foreign policy of a state. Therefore, sometimes geo-politics is also used as a loose synonym for international politics, although it does entail its study as well.

In order to comprehend the meaning of Geo-politics, in its entirety, we need to further enlarge its scope.

Geo politics would entail - Area studies, Demographic studies, Political changes and systems, Military affairs, geography/ topography, , interstate relations, global institutions, regional integration, territorial control and Economy ;  energy, resources , trade routes, and so on.

The Scope.

Gen Dyal who had captured strategically important HajiPir pass in 1965 war with Pakistan(He was then a Major), When asked about his views on the returning of Pass to Pakistan as per Tashkent agreement. He curtly replied ; “ Indians do not know how to read a map”, implying that the then Indian Govt did not have the capability to analyze the geo-strategic importance of the Pass.

Geo strategy is a sub field of Geo politics. While geopolitics involves studying the geographic and political features of different regions, especially the impact of geography on international politics ,  geo strategy involves planning, direction of a state’s foreign policy, assigning means for achieving national geo –political goals,  concentrating military efforts towards achieving those national goals.

Geo-politics is one subject, which requires consistent study because it is dynamic in nature. There is so much happening at any given time in the world ; technological changes, political changes, economic changes that have an impact on geo-political environment . Even Covid had geo-political implications.

A Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, aptly described this. He said ; “ If Properly understood, geopolitics is descriptive which helps us understand the world as a whole, and prescriptive in that it suggests strategic courses of action” .

Therefore, Geo politics being dynamic as well as prescriptive and descriptive, it also indicates the links and causal relationships between various changes and developments taking place globally.  for instance ,

1. US President, Mr Biden has recently shown interest to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran Nuclear deal , It is likely to have implications on the relationship with Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries who have often displayed reservations on Iran possessing nuclear weapons.
2. Almost One third of world trade takes place through Indo-Pacific ocean region and so this region has recently gained geo-political importance. As the country’s economy grows in its size so its concerns to safe guard its trade routes. China which in last two decades has grown immensely has also emerged as the net importer of oil to meet the needs of its growing economy. However, bulk of its energy needs is met through this route. Thus to safeguard its economic interests it has taken steps to enhance its naval power in this region. This development has a causal relationship with Security challenges to many Nations, including India, who as a result will work out a strategy to cope with the future security requirements.  

Study of Causal Relationship Need a Holistic Approach

As the Prof said that Geo politics helps us to understand the world better , so, this cause and effect relationship is to be seen holistically and not in isolation or restricted to a small region. For instance ;

 USSR after it crumbled under its own weight and disintegrated in 1991, it gave rise to nationalistic sentiments based on ethnicity and religion and as a result it gave birth to 15 Nations. This led to wide spread violence in some East European countries which also as a result got disintegrated along ethnic and religious lines. This rise in ethnicity and religious sentiments, had a world wide impact and many are still facing it.

Post disintegration, Russia became a second rate power despite possessing huge stock pile of nuclear weapons and strategic missiles. Given the historical experiences many East European countries which withdrew from Warsaw pact and discarded Communism and even the break away provinces of erstwhile USSR, were apprehensive of Russia acting as a bully. So, they, started looking towards West Europe and US for their security. The same happens in Asia –Pacific where Philippines, Japan, Taiwan etc look up to USA for their security against China. In that sense, will the outcome of this ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine not embolden China to do the same with Taiwan or even India, what Russia has done to Ukraine.  

All these terms ; Balance of power, Bi polar , uni polar , multi polar world, Monroe doctrine, Nation state system and so on, need to be understood in their entirety and not in isolation.

For example ;

Is the Globalisation, Information technology and rise in Ethnic and Religious sentiments causing a threat to Nation state system that was first articulated in the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 after Thirty years war.

Post World war and during the Cold war the world was bipolar i.e the countries were divided into two camps. Identification of friend and foe was simple ; “ if you are not with me then you are my enemy”. But there were still a few countries who tried their best to keep themselves away from this power game between the two Big Powers ; USSR and USA.

However, after, Soviet Union crumbled under its own weight in 1991, the decades old Bipolar world order fell into disarray. USA, the economic and military power house became the sole superpower. Many nations who were then not in the US camp had to realign their geo strategic policies and India was one of them. The Look East policy, looking beyond Russia and the need to develop relations with Israel, became a necessity in 90s for Indian policy makers.

However, Russia still considers the breakaway region to be a component within its Sphere of Influence, and vital to their security interests. Like India feels about Srilanka, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and even Maldives. The concept is similar to the Monroe Doctrine, that US had conceptualized in Latin America, which is now being challenged by China now. China has successfully and systematically enlarged its tentacles right up till Panama.

Gradually, in a decade or so, the Globalization and economic reforms in China, India, Brazil , etc changed the world order. Many regional powers emerged who started challenging USA as it increasingly found itself extended. The set backs in Iraq war and the Afghan war , the rise of China and the increasing influence of regional economic associations like EU , ASEAN challenged the US sole power status.

The world has now moved from being UNI POLAR to multi polar. It is primarily this reason why international geo political environment is now so fluid that even the NATO countries are not accepting US decisions and regional powers like India, Japan, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, South Korea have started wielding much more influence in their respective Regions and the global affairs than they ever did before. Today, we have scores of such associations and groupings like BRICS, SCO, ASEAN where USA is not even an Observer.

As a result, US has still not been able to garner support for its sanctions against Russia as effectively, as it could do a decade ago . It had to form QUAD to check mate China but had to under pressure of India , change its objectives.

" The global order is undergoing changes " wrote India’s External Minister in his Book The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World , a few years ago. He wrote; " If it was largely bipolar during the Cold War and then briefly unipolar after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, there are now signs of emerging multipolarity. China is already the world’s second largest economy and a major military power. From Germany to Japan and India to Brazil, middle powers are playing key roles in the new order".

So, in such a fluid geo –political situation where on one end we notice irresponsible powers like China and Russia bullying their smaller and weaker nation - states, we also find that there are no camps as such. If India that is facing threats from China is a member of Quad, which is primarily an Anti China group and at the same time, it is also sharing the table with them at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS .

Not only India, but even Israel, a strong ally of USA, in this ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has preferred not to take sides and the same goes for Brazil and Indonesia, who have shied away from taking sides. Indonesia, the host country has even invited Putin for the upcoming G 20 Summit at Bali.

 Conclusion.

So, Each country today in this multi polar world striving for startegic autonomy and freedom of action. In such a situation, as students of geo politics we need to enquire as to how suddenly the nations who once advocated Globalization , interconnectivity have started looking inwards and restrictive, BREXIT is an example. The effects of religion in the geopolitics of North Africa, the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent and indeed in the USA and Russia are undeniable and profound. What is it that occurred in the brief span of a few decades? And what would be its implications in foreseeable future Globally as well as to Individual countries, at different stages of development.

We need to remember everything that happens has a cause and effect relationship.

US President Mr Joe Biden had arrived in South Korea a few days ago. After a three-day visit including a summit with his South Korean counterpart, Mr Yoon Suk-yeol, he will arrive in Japan for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Mr Fumio Kishida.

Thereafter, In Tokyo, Mr Biden will attend a summit of the leaders of the Quad grouping and launch the Indo – Pacific Economic Framework an agreement that seeks to set standards on supply chains, worker protections, decarbonisation and anti-corruption.

So, Looking at the itinerary and the ongoing events at the world stage, the purpose of Mr Biden’s visit, can be summarized as follows ;

One. Showing that if US can respond to Russian aggression in Ukraine it can at the same time support its Asian allies to counter China’s growing economic and military clout in the region.

Two. If The Ukraine war is all about upholding the rules-based international order (RBIO), the US is capable to uphold the RBIO in Asia Pacific Region as well.

Three. Mr Biden might be wanting to send “powerful message” to China and others about what the world could look like if democracies “stand together to shape the rules of the road”.

Four. Finally, Building personal ties with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts.

What About India.

If isolating Russia and China are now key policy objectives for Washington, then India which opposed this move while discussing the Quad objectives will be seen as an important obstacle.

In response to these efforts, India has already begun talks with Moscow to explore ways to sidestep Western sanctions, including by trading in their own currencies. Prior to war, Russia was only a marginal energy supplier to India. But in March and April of this year alone, India has signed contracts to import more oil and even coal from Russia than it did in 2021.

The problem for Washington is that they thought that India would serve as a frontline state to checkmate China but over the years US is now facing an even more fundamental question:

Is India really a reliable ally against China?

Much of America’s rivalry with China is now a battle of norms to shape the world: human rights, rule of law, rights of self-determination and sovereignty, freedom of navigation in the seas, a free internet, free flow of data across borders, climate action responsibility, and so on, But on all these counts India is now being seen back sliding.

Off late, many analysts have  written that India’s democratic backsliding puts it more at odds with Washington and even on many other issues and in debates at various International forums — India has agreed more with China than with the U.S.

Recently during the Fourth Annual U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in 2022, when US had a tougher language when it came to China, a source revealed, India once again had a soft stance. One source described India’s stance “ China is our immediate neighbour. We seek to maintain good ties with all our neighbours, but at the same time we are also investing in strengthening our military, which is also very important,”

Conclusion

So, India will continue to remain a political dilemma for US and as a result when US president on his Asia visit meets South Korean President to build personal relationship, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on last Wednesday met Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who visited USA on the invitation of US President and both talked on regional security as well as strengthening bilateral economic and commercial ties.

A few months ago one Indian diplomat had said ;

"We are at a crossroad today … We must choose our friends and partners very carefully.”

Although the Indian external affairs ministry is displaying aggression while dealing with the West on the issue of Russia but given the difficult economic situation India is facing and China not relenting on Borders , it is advisable that we choose our friends and partners carefully.