Can We Learn Something from Putin’s War?

Will Putin be able to secure control over the annexed regions?Will he be able to win the war? If not, then will he be able to get his Nation out of this turmoil? When Ukrainians are launching counter attacks and regaining lost ground, does Putin has a Plan? Afterall, no one with basic military knowledge would support this idea that by bombing electric power projects Russia will win the war. Rather the chances are that such attacks on civilians can only strengthen the resolve of Ukrainians.

So, there are no clear answers and that’s the main worry; where will all this ultimately lead us all to? The whole world is facing the impact of this war in one way or the other but none has the answer.

This war has not only thrown up many questions but its outcome also is likely to have far reaching consequences for many Nations, besides Ukraine and Russia ;

1. Can smaller nations be left to fend for themselves when bullied by their big neighbours with powerful armies? If that is allowed and Big Nations look the other way, then Taiwan, Phillipines, Nepal, Bhutan even India may have to face its consequences in the near future.
2. Every society, including Russia, has their share of Ultra Nationalists, Nationalists, Religious fundamentalists, Seculars and Liberals, and the neutrals who are on no one’s side but just wish to live in peace and amicably. These groups or components of the society often operate at cross purposes and the influence of these groups on the decision making depends majorly on one factor: which group wields more influence over the ruler or in other words which group has helped the most to keep the ruler in power. Putin who has apparently retained power due to the Nationalists and Ultra Nationalists - who believed and carried out extensive propaganda that Putin will bring back the lost glorious days of Soviet era - still enjoys popular support in Russia, despite the setbacks in war and the military mobilization scheme not finding favour with the Russian population. Therefore, extricating the Nation out of war at this stage becomes all the more difficult. Ostensibly, the whole of Russia must have rejoiced when its army had almost reached Kiev.
3. What is Moscow’s Plan now as all its Plans till now have failed to deliver the objectives of war?The absence of clear answers is likely to push all these groups; Ultranationalists, Nationalists, Liberals into conflicting positions and many of them are likely to be pushed to look for better survival strategies. After all, no one wants to end up on the wrong side of history and also face punitive action from Putin’s henchmen. The easiest thing at this stage for the Putin supporters, therefore, is to blame the military for this debacle. This is what is happening in the Russian media and Putin is keeping quiet and as a result, his agents in media are now getting increasingly brave in criticizing the army.

All this must be happening in Russia regardless of the fact that the military has been the key institution on which Putin has relied in his war against Ukraine and push his Nationalist agenda. While ordinary Russians, fed on Nationalist agenda, remain behind Putin, there is no way the war is likely to end soon.

Putin’s decision to launch the war was opposed by its Liberals who were already marginalized. Some of them must have rallied around Putin with very different motives and opted to submit; the easiest and safest strategy to survive. Ofcourse the Nationalists and Utra Nationalists must have rejoiced every victory at the front; even the killings of hapless Ukrainians and their exodus. But, after Ukraine held its defences and launched its unexpected counterattack and started regaining lost ground those rejoicing in Russia must now be looking for scapegoats and the military is always the easiest scapegoat.

Last month, the bridge connecting Russia and Crimea was blown up. Russian troops appeared to be exhausted; afterall they have been fighting for months now and the mobilization is faltering, and people are resisting. It was obvious that Putin had to resort to something more cruel and devastating and so came the massive missile strike against Ukrainian cities and power projects.

Now that Iran has also reportedly jumped into this war by sending its troops into Crimea and helping Russia in this war with its lethal drones, this will likely impact the decisions of many nations who have been sitting on the fence, particularly Israel.

Conclusion.

If we look back and study the situation which led to world war II, we would notice a few glaring similarities:

1. It started with one nation and his leader trying to regain its lost glory.
2. Few nations, which played an important role in expanding the war were ruled by Nationalists, Ultranationalists and Expansionists: Nazis in Germany, Mussolini in Italy, Emperor Hirohito in Japan and the rest trying to avoid a conflict, initially kept looking the other way, till the war came to their door step. 
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4. Every nation, barring a few, got sucked into the conflict as the Ultranationalist Leaders from Germany, Japan and Italy kept pushing their agenda and reached a point where they could not revert their decision and brought miseries to their countrymen as well as the World.
5. Todays environment is the mirror image of the setting that existed some 82 years back prior to the WW II - the slogans , the public outlook and  the Leaders - who talked of “One Nation, One Culture”. “  Through Reason or by Force”, “One people, one goal, one faith”, “For God, for the people, for nature, and for the country”, “Nothing is ever won in history without bloodshed." “We belong to you".

It is said, that history repeats itself in one way or the other although the players may change and who knows we might be just on the brink of it.