Although the leaders of four nations in 2007 conceptualized the Quad, but could not formalize it, till 2017, as the Chinese threat could not be visualized then. So once China started pursuing its foreign policy objectives a little more aggressively and bulldozing its way in South China sea that the world woke to up to the threat imposed by the Red Dragon.
As regards India, it also felt the need after Chinese entered Ladakh region and threatened India at Dokhlam. In addition to this, India now finds itself being challenged by China in its own backyard as China has either replaced or soon going to replace India as the largest trading partner of Bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka etc and has a much stronger Naval fleet, atleast in numbers than what India possesses. China in last 20-30 years has modernized and equipped its armed forces to such a level that its hard for India to challenge China militarily, all by itself. Although on land it may be able to do so but surely in waters it cannot, China is churning out ships in hundreds and even US cannot match that speed.
All this has not happened over night , but this realistaion that India needs to act on it has dawned in last few years, as all this while, the Indian policy makers were gleefully happy trying to resolve Border dispute with China diplomatically.
Despite China nibbling India's territory inch by inch, it is still reluctant to name China and ally itself with a Group whose sole agenda is Anti China, perhaps because it has a roaring business relations with China worth 77 billion dollars and it also does not wish to antagonize Russia. China today, despite all the border tensions, is the largest trading partner of India.
Need For an Alliance
The pandemic has also helped China to expand its influence to regions which were once under US sway. Undoubtedly, China in last few years has been challenging USA’s influence in many regions, but the pandemic has catapulted China to a superpower league, wherein it has replaced USA from number one position, in many areas.
There are two ways of beating your rival, one is by developing your own competencies and through a fair competition defeating him. But there is another way often taken by rascals and that is PULL YOUR RIVAL DOWN and then occupy his position. The pandemic has just enabled China to do that ; pulled down USA.
Now one can argue endlessly whether China used virus as a weapon or its spread was a genuine mistake but the data and the events that have unfolded in 2020-21 will not lie.
US and China who were battling for influence in Latin America till recently, the pandemic has helped China immensely to gain a Very strong foothold in USA’s backyard and USA will have to do something extraordinary now to regain its lost status in Latin America.
A Feb21 report in Times says that ; As countries in the region grapple with a cascade of challenges to their developing economies, they increasingly look not to the North but to the East i.e. China
The report says that ; China has now emerged as the top trading partner of South American countries.
When the world was grappling with covid , By late October’20, China had provided over 179 billion masks, 1.73 billion protective suits and 543 million testing kits to 150 countries and seven international organizations around the globe. The vaccine itself is now being increasingly used by all for geo political purposes. China is using it to further its influence in various regions. It is using vaccines to build bridges where it feels most valuable. In September’20, Brazil’s agreed to buy 60 million doses of vaccines from China, Peru’s President Francisco Sagasti announced the purchase of 38 million vaccine doses from state-run Chinese firm, Mexico had also signed an advance-purchase agreement with another Chinese developer, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister also revealed that China agreed to provide his nation with half a million doses of vaccine free of charge.
Admiral Craig S. Faller, who leads the U.S. military’s Southern Command, told a video meeting with members of the Defense Writers Group in December that China is actively making “deals to try to get the vaccine deployed and employed” around the globe.
One can easily assess the importance of this humanitarian aid. This is not simple geopolitics, but an indicator of the emerging world order. The countries were jostling with eachother to realign their strategic relationship. While all countries were looking inwards focusing on domestic corona virus problems, China was looking outward and pushing its agenda agressively.
Quad Summit ; Salient Aspects.
China’s unrelenting pressure on countries, its role in the pandemic crisis, its attempt to hijack global institutions like the World Health Organisation (WHO), its territorial aggression on India and using coercive trade practices to target Australia, occupying islands in South China sea against maritime laws and its overall hegemonistic behavior, has forced other countries to unite to address the situation they find themselves in.
So, the Quad was formalized in 2017 and its leaders met for the first time in person on 24 Sept 21 in USA . This delay or so to say , the time taken to arrive at a decision ; the need to meet, by itself speaks about its need and the discord/disagreements amongst the members.
However, now that, they have realised the necessity to meet and take the process ahead, its important to go throught the salient aspects of the meeting ;
Although, they still avoided naming China but its essence amply brings out that these leaders have met because Beijing was clearly top of their mind and they are concerned about China’s disregard to laws and rules. Hence the leaders ; Mr Biden(US President), Mr Modi, Mr Morris(PM of Australia) and Yoshihide Suga (Japanese Prime Minister) in their joint statement emphasized on this aspect. In the joint statement, that was released Post meeting, they said ;
" We stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and over flight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states."
Their statements made frequent mention on rules-based behavior in a region where China has been trying to flex its muscles. They further stated that ;
"Together, we recommit to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond," The Quad leaders also voiced support for small island states, especially those in the Pacific, in order to enhance their economic and environmental resilience.
Realizing the multi dimensional threat from China as it was observed, that it was not only exploiting the Pandemic situation to its advantage but also taking advantage of democratic norms of the Nations for its furtherence, The Quad leaders took steps to expand vaccines worldwide, Mr Modi announced that India would permit export of 8 million vaccine doses by the end of October. The Quad leaders also announced several new pacts, including one to bolster supply chain security for semiconductors and also rolled out a 5G partnership and plans to track climate change. They said ;
"Acknowledging the role of governments in fostering an enabling environment for 5G diversification, we will work together to facilitate public-private cooperation and demonstrate in 2022 the scalability and cyber security of open, standards-based technology,"
Why Indian Ocean –Pacific Alliance.
The globalisation of business can not be rolled back, ( even if few countries start looking inwards ) as it ensured the free movement of people, goods, services and capital, and brought the world closer. The Trading and Business relations can not be wound up now. Consequently, The importance of vast Indo-Pacific region that comprises approx 38 countries can not be overlooked. It shares 44 percent of the world surface area, is home to more than 64 percent of the world’s population, and it accounts for 62 percent of the global GDP with more than 50 percent of global trade traversing through its waters.
As regards India, The heart of India’s economic ties in the Indo-Pacific is rooted in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean is almost 20 percent of the world’s ocean area, touching the shores of 36 countries and connecting three continents (Africa, Asia and Australia), with a total coastline area of 66,526 km, or 40 percent of the global coastline. The Indian Ocean is home to major sea-lanes and choke points that are crucial to global trade, connecting major centres of the international economy in the North Atlantic and Asia-Pacific — 90,000 commercial shipping vessels form the backbone of international goods trade; and about 40 percent of the world’s oil supply travels through strategic choke points into and out of the Indian Ocean, which is also a valuable source of mineral and fishing resources.
So, India’s Foreign Minister while emphasizing the importance of this region stated ; The “Indo-Pacific construct signifies the confluence of the Indian and Pacific oceans that can no longer be handled as distinct spheres. It is a reiteration that the world cannot be frozen for the benefit of a few, the security, stability, peace, and prosperity of this vast region is vital for the world. The Indo-Pacific concept is not tomorrow’s forecast but yesterday’s reality. It captures a mix of India’s broadening horizons, widening interests, and globalised activities. The Indo-Pacific is central to India’s exports and imports.”
And all this trade and business, movement of Goods and People can not take place peacefully and gainfully if some countries flout the laws, act irresponsibily and resort to coercion and threats using their superior armed forces.
Conclusion .
China offcourse is observing the developments of Quad closely and immediately after the meeting its spokeperson announced that Quad will surely fail and can not be sustained. The critics also ascribe few reasons for its failure ;
One. The four countries that comprise Quad have different geopolitical interests and vulnerabilities and The region is highly heterogeneous with countries at different levels of development connected by a common thread of ‘the ocean.
For instance ;
Australia which is most vulnerable as its economy is highly dependent on China. Australia has had three decades of recession-free growth and that was possible because of its trade relations with China. In 2018-2019, 33 percent of its EXPORTS went to China, whereas only 5 percent went to the United States.
India also remains ambivalent about the U.S. agenda on China and is not likely to be a clear US ally .
A rapprochement between Japan and China can also be a reality, as Japan is not signing up to any program of containment of China.
So the alliance may just lose its significance, the moment each country’s strategic interests/ vulnerabilities are addressed piecemeal.
If that happens, It is quite likely that the alliance may be reduced to annual ritual of Malabar Naval exercise wherein few warships of four nations may participate.
Notwithstanding the above, The Alliance will atleast bring some pressure on China and may compel China to behave responsibily and adhere to International laws.Yes, before it does so, it is likely to test the Alliance' solidarity.