The Image shows the Areas under conflict in 2014.
Before we dwell into present crisis between Russia and Ukraine it is important we go back into history and try and find as to how Nations and its people reach a state where they have little control over the events and suffer innumerable miseries. Often the politicians prick the past wounds, do not let the people forget those wounds and cause more miseries.
Background.
Its important for all Indians to go through the Background and grasp its quintessential elements because they bear huge importance to our future as well. The scholars say that History often repeats itself.
WWI had radically altered the European map, It led to the defeat of the Central powers ; Austria- Hungary, Germany, Bulgaria and the ottoman empire i.e Turkey. Meanwhile in 1917 Bolsheviks had acquired power in Russia which led to the founding of Soviet Union, which brought Ukraine also in its control.
The allies who won the war such as France, UK, Belgium, Italy, Romania and Greece gained territory and new nation states were created out of the collapse. The impact of collapse of ottoman empire was felt all over world where muslims resided. including India where it led to Khilafat Movement against Britishers who dismantled the Caliphate of Ottoman empire.
Ostensibly , all these societies who lost territories or were imposed restrictions under treaty of Versailles must have had grievances to settle. Thus gradually , this led to strong racial movement led by those who believed that a HISTORICAL WRONG has been done to them and so they encouraged nationalism that was based on irredentism (popular movements based on correcting perceived historical wrongs) and revanchism (a policy of seeking to retaliate, especially to recover lost territory ). . This process started in Italy under Mussolini and in Germany under Hitler.
Post WW I The German Empire was dissolved and a democratic government, known as the Weimar Republic was created. Italy, although was an ally of UK in WWI and had made some post-war territorial gains; but the, Italian nationalists charged with the greatness of Roman empire were angered that the promises made by UK and France before the war were not fulfilled in the peace settlement.
So, from 1922 onwards a Nationalist movement led by Mussolini seized power in Italy and repressed socialist, left-wing and liberal forces, and pursued an aggressive foreign policy aimed at making Italy a world power and a promise to bring back the glory of ROMAN EMPIRE.
Thus Hitler who acquired power in 1933 and Mussolini espousing a desire to bring back the glory of their Past greatness and superiority inspired their population and led the world to a path of collision and WW II. Both of them first insisted on the cultural and racial superiority of their countrymen and started a modernization and rearmament process . This obviously led to violation of human rights of minorities and we now know what Germans did to jews. Once they felt strong they started invading neighboring countries with an aim to capture those areas which they believed were theirs in past and that finally led to WWII.
If WWI had an impact on Europe, the WWII changed the political alignment and social structure of the globe. The Soviet Union and the United States emerged as rival super powers setting the stage for the nearly half-century-long cold war. It also triggered a decolonization process of Africa and Asia. Most countries whose industries had been damaged moved towards their own economic recovery and this triggered a decolonization process of Africa and Asia.. The Allies established occupation administrations in Austria and Germany. The former became a neutral state, non-aligned with any political bloc. The latter was divided into western and eastern occupation zones controlled by the Western Allies and the Soviet Union.
Germany lost a quarter of its pre-war territory. Among the eastern territories, Silesia, Neumark and Pomerania were seized by Poland, and East Prussia was divided between Poland and the Soviet Union, The Soviet Union also took over the Polish provinces east of the Curzon line, north-east Romania, parts of eastern Finland, and the three Baltic states were merged into Soviet Union. Germany was divided into two independent states. West Germany and the East Germany were created within the borders of allied and soviet occupation zones. The rest of Europe was also divided , Most Eastern and Central European countries fell into Soviet sphere, , which led to establishment of Communist-led regimes, with support of the Soviets. As a result, East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia , Albania became satellite soviet states. It also led to a bipolar world ; the NATO and Soviet led warsaw pact countries.
In early 80s when Gorbachev became the President of USSR , he inorder to improve the economically burdened USSR launched a series of reforms popularly called Glasnost and Prestoirika which basically meant ; openness and reconstruction.
These reforms gradually, when percolated into the system which was managed by an iron hand of Communists, it set a series of events both within USSR and also in East Europe. Gorbachev’s decision to loosen the Soviet repression on the countries of Eastern Europe created an independent, democratic momentum that led to the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, and thereafter it led to the overthrow of Communist rule throughout Eastern Europe.
After the demise of Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, many east European countries and the Baltic States which were part of Soviet Union demanded independence from Moscow. In many such states ethnic violence also erupted because people were divided by the artificial frontiers drawn after the Russian revolution, WWI and WWII.
Another challenge that the world faced then was the vast nuclear arsenal that was deployed in the various states of USSR. All these states were now facing civil strife and in times to come the nuclear weapons could impose great threat to world peace as there was a fear that all this arsenal could fall in the hands of irresponsible rulers.
The Soviet nuclear arsenal was vast, as were Soviet conventional forces, and further weakening of Gorbachev could derail further arms control negotiations. Then happened the coup attempt in August 1991 against Gorbachev, by hard line communists which although failed but it sealed the fate of the Soviet Union. Planned by hard-line Communists, the coup diminished Gorbachev’s power and propelled Yeltsin and the democratic forces to the forefront of Soviet and Russian politics. Gorbachev resigned his leadership as head of the Communist party shortly thereafter and in December, Yeltsin and the leaders of Ukraine and Belarus met in Brest to form the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), effectively declaring the demise of the Soviet Union.
Thence, On December 25, 1991, the Soviet union communist flag lowered and was thereafter replaced by the Russian tricolor. Mikhail Gorbachev resigned his post as president of the Soviet Union, leaving Boris Yeltsin as president of the newly independent Russian state. The former communist monolith finally disintegrated into multiple separate nations.
USA recognized all 12 independent republics and established diplomatic relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. ,Uzbekistan, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan and subsequently Georgia.
Ostensibly US led NATO and the many independent nations out of the clutches of communist Russia now wanted to charter their independent course and desired to become members of either EU and NATO . This was not easy as many of these states had Russian speaking ethnic population which felt insecure and had affinity towards Russia. This led to civil strife in Georgia, Ukraine etc.
Russia inorder to ensure its security needs formed a common wealth of indpenedent states and also supported such seperatist elements, basically Russian speaking population in these newly independent states to thwart the NATO to expand its tentacles closer to its borders.
As the violence erupted in Ukraine and Belarus , The Minsk Protocol an agreement inorder to end violence in Donbas region of Ukraine was worked out. It was written in 2014 by a Group consisting of Ukraine, the Russian federation and the organization for security and cooperation in Europe with the help of the leaders of France and Germany.. However, It failed to stop fighting in Donbas, and was thus followed with a new package of measures, called Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. This too failed to stop the fighting but the brokers of peace feel that this should remain the basic framework of bringing peace. This protocol lays down some 15 points which all sides should adhere to inorder to bring peace.
Minsk II sought to halt the conflict that began when Russia-backed separatists seized large territory in Ukraine following Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
Ukraine sees the 2015 agreement as an instrument to re-establish control over the rebel territories. It wants a ceasefire, control of the Russia-Ukraine border, elections in the Donetsk, and a limited devolution of power to the separatists – in that order.
Whereas Russians perceive that as per the deal, Ukraine should grant rebel authorities in Dontesk comprehensive autonomy and representation in the central government, effectively giving Russia the power to veto Kyiv’s foreign policy choices.
The Present.
As the earlier agreements Minsk II also could not contain the violence between the separatist elements within Ukraine supported by Russia , Russia perhaps thinking that this is the opportune moment to once and for all assert itself and take an advantage of the new geo strategic situation that has emerged Post Covid.
What might have prompted Putin to en masse troops and threaten Ukraine.
- Putin after what had happened in Afghanistan might have calculated that weak leadership in US , and internal divisions in the West make this an opportune time to test NATO’s resolve.
- The expansion of NATO in east Europe might have also prompted Russia to restrict NATO and its involvement in eastern Europe, and force a new European security architecture which would de facto recognize Russia’s sphere of influence over the States of the former Soviet Union.
- May be the frustration has prompted Russia to take this step as the eight years of conflict has not resulted into collapse of Ukraine. So inorder to halt Ukraine’s westward drift towards the European Union (EU), it decided to use coercive tactics.
The question then arises is will Russia invade Ukraine ?
The common sense says No, because Russia which is already under sanctions and its economy not in a healthy state, why would it further enhance its problems.
Secondly, although it is driving on this path of confrontation with the backing of China but An attack would leave Russia even more dependent on China, as it will get more isolated, which Russians may not like.
Three, This will also trigger a reaction from NATO’s positions in eastern Europe, which Russia may not desire.
So, it is unlikely that Putin is going to attack Ukraine when it already has proxies available which can do all the damage and achieve its political objectives. However, its proxies in Russian dominated areas of Ukraine like Donetsk and Luhansk may declare independence , making it easier for Putin to send his forces into these regions to help the Native Russians.
Conclusion.
However, the most important aspects that should be noted are ;
One. The entire region comprising of East European counties and the breakaway states of USSR are not monoliths, there are sizeable minorities in each state. Because, their Borders have been drawn and redrawn many a times. For instance, Kazakhstan where recent violence by Islamic fundamentalists was a cause of concern for the Russian speaking minority population. the same is with Ukraine and other break away Soviet states.
Two. Therefore any govt which thinks it can bull doze its way and suppress its minorities will have to face grave consequences. The Newly independent nations can not remain indifferent to the security concerns of Russia and therefore must refrain from joining any military alliances that may be a threat to Russia, .
Three. Historically as mentioned above, Europe has always been a region where wars have drawn and redrawn the boundaries of Nation states.
Three. USA must carry out some introspection ; What moral right does it have to lure these states into NATO when it does not allow any interference in the region which it considers its backyard ; Latin America.
Four. Till such time these states where democracy is still in a nascent stage, transform themselves into stable democracies , this civil strife is likely to continue and the various Govts will be using these proxies / separatist elements as a tool to serve their foreign policy objectives.
Five., Any Nation State that has ever tried to bring prosperity for its people thinking that the ideology based on racial or historical supremacy or achievements will cause resurgence, has always failed miserably. Such revanchist (correcting perceived historical wrongs or seeking revenge for acts that took place in past) and irredentist ( It means a political or popular movement that seeks to claim or reclaim and occupy a land that the movement's members consider to be a territory that has been lost in the past ) nationalism movements to acquire power have led its people and state to disastrous consequences ; Mussolini and Hitler did that and recent one is of Turkey, wherein its President Ergadon has ruined its economy.
Last but the most important aspect is Once the Leadership takes a Nation and its people on a path of conflict , it has a spiraling effect over which, neither the Leader himself nor the people have any control.