With US forces largely gone from the battlefield and Biden’s tactics of fighting the Taliban without Boots on Ground has enabled Taliban to capture more than half the number of districts, out of 421 in Afghanistan. The US Def secy has to concede that strategic momentum is with Taliban and intelligence sleuths of USA have predicted that the capture of Kabul is, if not weeks than just a few months away. The Taliban are largely dictating when and where they will fight the government forces with multi-pronged thrusts and the authorities are struggling to halt that movement.
One day the militants are on the verge of capturing a provincial capital in the northwest, and the next day they are encircling Kandahar in the south -- all this while dissipating Afghan armed forces, seizing valuable border crossings and population centers. The strategy appears to be -- exhausting the country's overstretched air force and army, and depriving Kabul of much needed revenue and finally force them to crumble.
Taliban used a simple tactics, Rapid movement and surround the provincial capitals and population centers bypassing the over stretched afghan forces,
as a result at most of the places the afghan forces just panicked and ran away withought giving a fght. Thus they will be able to choke money and supplies to Kabul, which is the seat of Afghan Govt. With barely 100 odd districts left under its control and encircled and choked by Taliban, The Govt at Kabul will have no teeth and no authority to rule the country.
The Taliban seem more geared to push the government to collapse after battering the morale of the security forces in the countryside.
It has also cut the central government off from the traditionally anti-Taliban strongholds it relies on for backing. "The most surprising thing about the Taliban's offensive is its focus on the north and west. The Taliban is taking the fight to the doorstep and living room of Afghanistan's power brokers," said Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
If the warlords and other influential leaders are denied their base of support in the north and west, the Afghan government is lost." He commented.
It is clear that the Americans had not visualized this and expected that they would have to leave the Battle zone in such a precarious situation, where they will find Taliban closing in at their heels.
All this happened at such a fast pace in a span of just two months that it has left many bewildered . This rapid move to grab Afghanistan points ;
One. Pakistan is the Life Line of Taliban. The vulnerability of the Afghan security forces against the Taliban has been a surprise, as few expected them to crumble, even partially, this fast," said retired Afghan general Atiqullah Amarkhail.
A force mainly of irregulars in this long war of 20 years would have got disorganized, tired, weary and lost the zeal however on the other hand Taliban appears to be absolutely fit, organized and rejuvenated. This is only possible when someone must have been keeping the organization over hauled and fighting fit despite all the setbacks that it received from the NATO forces in these 20 years. Who can be doing this other than Pakistan. No wonder the Vice President of Afghanistan recently said ; Taliban is an alliance of LET, Al Quaeda and Madrasa volunteers who use the ISI trail to infilterate. While explaining as to how Taliban is able to sustain this war , he said ; they sustain it through Pak Army GHQ and ISI supply trail. Without them they will lose in a matter of weeks.
Anyone with common mil knowledge and fought insurgency would understand that such a force of irregulars could not have sustained to this level and carried out this blitzkrieg without a consistent logistic supply in terms of fuel, funds, arms and ammunition, constant supply of trained recruits and leadership. Hence till the time this Life line is not choked Taliban with all its network will continue to breathe.
Two. Possibility of Saving Afghan Govt. Reversing the Taliban’s momentum will be crucial for the Afghan government, with several months still left before cold weather curtails major combat operations, if Afghanistan Govt has to be saved. This is going to be an uphill task, unless USA uses its Airforce extensively in support of Afghan forces.
Three. Military Victory will lead to Political Power. Taliban sees battlefield dominance as path to political and, diplomatic power. The land-grabbing offensive is clearly aimed at forcing the Afghan government to just crumble and seek peace on Taliban’s terms or suffer complete military defeat. Thus any delay in gaining this military advantage, may not only jeopardize its political objectives but also leave this force of irregulars exposed to the more organized Afghan force which will get time to reorganize itself and cause extensive damage to Taliban, may be the US Airforce will also pitch in as commented by US Army Chief.
Four. With the peace talks between the stake holders not making any head way the mentors of Taliban know that there is a limited window of opportunity. If the offensive loses momentum or the world powers decide to take stern action against Taliban it would then become difficult to negotiate peace at their terms.
Five. So no wonder Pakistan is in a hurry to achieve the military objectives because once the war stagnates and Kabul is able to find its feet , Pakistan’s political objectives may take a serious knock.
Six. USA had just given up. NATO members joint statement suggesting that the military intervention had achieved its goal to “prevent terrorists from using Afghanistan as a safe haven to attack us.” Conveys the whole story, that the West was just not interested to carry on with this war, any further. Otherwise, how can they be so gullible to believe this assurance given by Taliban to US in a negotiated peace agreement last year, it sounds so stupid. The US has gone to such ridiculous extent to justify the withdrawal that According to the ‘bipartisan and independent’ Afghanistan Study Group Final Report of February 2021, “The Taliban are not an international terrorist organisation and there is no evidence that they have any intention to attack USA. Astonishingly, The killings of journalists and others who opposed Taliban is not an act of terror for them. US President Biden’s statement further cemented this . He said ; Its for the Afghan people to decide what kind of Government they wish to have.
Under the current circumstances, therefore , it is more than likely that those who were hand in glove with Jehadis and spreading this Jehad to neighbouring countries on one pretext or the other, including to India, will once again use Afghanistan as their launching pad. This will surely be a cause of conern in varying degrees and aspects for all its neighbouring countries.
Seven. USA Lacks Skills and Resolve. The US today lacks the moral resolve and the political skills to lead. The zeal that sustained it for almost half a century has gradually eroded and there is a total loss of direction. It is bewildering as to How can they be so sure that US interests elsewhere will not targeted/ attacked by these Jehaids who are all hand in glove. India therefore must be careful to rely on such a partner and also capabilities of QUAD group when it comes to dealing with China .
Eight. Taliban is a Huge asset for its Mentors. Having defeated two super powers in succession, Taliban militants have acquired a belief in their own invincibility grounded in Islamic theology. If it succeeds in overthrowing the regime in Kabul in the coming months, a self-confident Taliban will then seek to safeguard its future by forging an axis with two strategic neighbours — China and Pakistan. And there is a point to ponder ; How will these two powers utilize this asset ? Pakistan has always considered these Jehadis as their strategic assets.
Nine. Proxy war is the new strategy. After the Nations went on a spree to develop a stockpile of nuclear warheads and their delivery systems, it became amply clear that these weapons are not for USE but are meant for only deterrence. Now when the wars have become too costly and a realization has dawned upon nations that there will be MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION, it has become a kind of necessity for countries like Pakistan to wage Proxy wars using such Jehadis inorder to pursue their foreign policy objectives. Thence, such assets like Taliban, LET etc will be of immense strategic importance for these nations in waging Proxy wars in pursuance of their Foriegn policy objectives. Proxy wars or Covert wars are now likely to be in vogue.
Conclusion.
Pakistan’s founder, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, was convinced about the strategic importance of Pakistan. In an interview a month after independence in 1947, Margaret Bourke-White of Life magazine painted a vivid picture of Jinnah’s expectations: “‘Pakistan is the pivot of the world, as we are placed’ — Jinnah revolved his long forefinger in bony circles — ‘at the frontier on which the future position of the world revolves.’” In 1947, the world was just entering a cold war. Bourke Bourke-White explained that Pakistanis expected the United States to pay handsomely for a strategically located ally’s development — and to fund its military as well. Half a century later, sadly hardly anything has changed. USA and West despite being aware of Pakistan’s duplicity with terrorists and what it is upto, still prefer to walk with them.
As President Joe Biden has taken his Nation on a dangerous path of abandonment of Afghanistan, Pakistani leaders are over joyous that they can use their leverage over Taliban to once again win concessions from the U.S as it has been happening for past half a century.
Only time will tell, whether this time around Pakistan will be able to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
As regards, India , it has lost an opportunity to act like a leader and catch the bull by its horns, it instead preferred to react to situations as they emerge in future.