The 19th SAARC Summit was to have been held in Islamabad in November 2016 but was called off after India pulled out after the Uri terror attack that was blamed on Pakistan-based terrorists. Since then, come the winters , every year Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, blames India, as a ritual, for the postponement of the Annual summit of SAARC nations.
So, this year also, as expected, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi used the opportunity for India bashing. Qureshi while describing SAARC as an “important forum” blamed India for making this forum dysfunctional. He further added that : “Because of India’s obstinacy, this forum is suffering. If India does not want to come [for the Saarc Summit], then new means are available. I reiterate our invitation to all SAARC members and Pakistan is willing to host the 19th SAARC Summit in Islamabad. If India doesn’t want to come, they can attend virtually. but they shouldn’t stop others. They should let others come and not affect this forum.”
Although Pakistan by capturing Afghanistan with the help of Taliban has achieved its geo strategic objective but its International image has suffered a huge set back. And now forget about diplomats and ministers visiting Pakistan for a summit even cricket teams are apprehensive of playing cricket in Pakistan.
Even if we leave Pakistan’s dwindling international status and focus on SAARC, we would notice that it is of little consequence for India and is now not a forum for any cooperation. Although it could play an important role in bringing prosperity and growth in the entire region but for reasons, as enumerated below, it lost the direction ;
One. SAARC summit cannot be held if even one member decides not to attend and as India had raised the ante and refused to do business as usual after Uri terror attack, it is now unlikely that India will be able to come down from that position till Pakistan does not take action against terror groups operating from Pakistan. So till India climbs down from that Position it is unlikely that a summit can be held in Pakistan.
Two. For any regional organization to be successful, every member state of that organization has to have an international perspective in spite of the responsibility of its members towards their national interests and sovereignty. However, the South Asian Nations are still suffering from that colonial era hang over of Ultra Nationalism. A noted Indian journalist Mr Pran Chopra once remarked ; ‘Excessive nationalism among members is one of the major obstacles in SAARC’s slow progress.’
Three. Although,SAARC charter excludes bilateral and contentious issues from any discussion. But almost every state in the region has problems in its bilateral relations with India ; Nepal has on the water distribution of Mahakali River and disputed border regions like Kalapani, Lipulekh, etc, Bangladesh had river water sharing issue and Pakistan has many problems with India. Hence achieving mutual trust and cooperation is a difficult task . The smaller nations feel India will use this forum to extend its dominance and India’s fear is that these small nations may gang up against India and form an alliance against India.
Four. Earlier foreign states like the USA had pursued its strategic interests by encouraging the mutual distrust and animosity among the states of the South Asian region it is now China’s turn. The US had previously used Pakistan as a spearhead to reduce India’s influence in the region and now China is doing the same. China has set up its own alternative to SAARC by launching the China-South Asia Emergency Supplies Reserve and Poverty Alleviation and Cooperative Development Centre, which includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The five countries are also all participants in the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Chinese Foreign Minister had also hosted a virtual meeting of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in April this year to cooperate on Covid-19 vaccination and poverty alleviation in South Asian states. Taliban Govt in Afghanistan has already approached China for the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the BRI’s flagship project, to Afghanistan.
Five. The nations of the region have not been able to take advantage of the alliance like Free trade etc and reduce the suspicions that are so intense with each of the states. This has happened because besides the hostile India-Pakistan bilateral relationship and pursuance of ultra nationalism there are also inherent structural challenges, including geographic and demographic inequalities in terms of size and strengths of countries in the region, which limit the scope of cooperation.
Six. Unlike the EU and ASEAN, South Asian countries are relatively less industrialized, the intra-regional trade is primarily either agri-commodities or relatively lower valued manufactured goods; Jute, tea, Rice, Cotton, Coffee, spices, garments etc and as a result they are basically competitors even in international market. For strong and sustainable trading relations one of the essential element is the complementary demand and supply and in the absence of that the potential for trade in the region is not very encouraging.
Seven. Moreover, India given its size and economy is still not a role model for these countries. The corrupt system of governance, the sham democracy, the religion based politics, ultra nationalism are not going to help India to rally smaller nations towards cooperation.
Future
Although SAARC might not have lost its relevance but looking at the ground realities, the regional cooperation in South Asia is poised to remain limited AND the summits may just be rituals without any serious actual impact.
And with what has happened in Afghanistan, it is unlikely that India is going to recognize the current dispensation in Afghanistan and oblige Pakistan by allowing it to hold a SAARC Summit at Islamabad with Taliban representatives sitting by its side, and so it is quite likely that SAARC is finally buried at Islamabad.
Although, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened a video conference of regional leaders inorder to join hands against Covid but the mess created by second wave at home took the wind out of this initiative. Apart from such minor engagements, SAARC has virtually become redundant.
In view of all the above, India has already developed regional arrangements to live without SAARC.
India launched the South Asia Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) after Pakistan blocked the regional transport deal in 2014 ; Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal (BBIN) have signed it. In 2017, India launched a South Asia communication satellite for joint use by Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. And is now focusing on the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand. Given its composition, BIMSTEC in the last few years has emerged as an alternative to the SAARC platform for regional cooperation in the South and South East Asian region.