Although Russia and India signed a flurry of trade and arms deals during President Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently, including the production of Kalashnikov assault rifles. But it is unlikely that their relations will ever be of the same level as they existed prior to USSR’s disintegration.
Almost around the same dates, US organized a virtual summit of almost 100 Democratic Nations including some of them where democracy is being stifled, in order to redeem its leadership status that got dented post Afghanistan debacle. But, whether the summit will ultimately live up to its worthy mission, only time will tell for instance; European Union is slightly reluctant about the return of U.S. global leadership and it wishes to build its independent relations that are not tied up with USA.
The geo political environment has undergone a change and we need to understand the relationship not only with Russia but also with other nations including China in that context.
The two countries India and Russia despite the old relations, their trade has not crossed 10 billion dollars whereas, with China with whom India has fought a war and has a border dispute that recently led to a skirmish on the border, the trade has crossed 100 billion dollar mark this year.
During the recent meet the two countries (Russia and India) having set a very modest target ; to boost annual trade to $30 billion by 2025 is an indicator that the private sector is not very enthusiastic with trade and business with Russia as it is with China.
Two. The Growing India-US relations are an irritant that has loomed large over Delhi-Moscow ties. Mr Modi even held a big rally for Donald Trump in 2020 when he visited India.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chose to speak openly when India joined Quad – and said that the Quad is an attempt by West “To engage India in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies.
Three. China's deteriorating ties with the US also appear to have pushed Beijing and Moscow closer. Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the US-led West also seeks to dominate the region.
Four. Russia and China openly supported the Taliban regime and the Russian Foreign Minister did not even include India in the talks. He invited Pakistan, China, USA, Iran etc including Taliban representatives but not India. Although, their Security Advisor was recently present at the meeting organized by Dobhal on Afghanistan but prima facie Russia’s goals in Afghanistan are largely aligned with China and Pakistan and that leaves India with very little influence in the region.
International Politics; My Country First.
The rise of “my country first” politics in the world’s advanced industrial democracies has had a spillover into the international sphere.
The corona virus further exacerbated this: the immediate reaction of nations was to look inwards, and engage with the international community only for self-serving purposes. Some blame globalization and rise of social media for this political mayhem. Whatever the reason—or more accurately, the combination of reasons—the end result has been extreme political polarization in almost all democratic nations.
We are therefore entering a new phase in international affairs, leaving behind the geo politics of Balance of power and Bi polar world. Although there are two major powers USA and China competing with each other but there are many other regional powers without whom the two major powers will have little influence.
The countries now cannot be placed in straight jackets implying that the world cannot be now arranged into two or more Blocks or alliances.
This is best exemplified by following;
India has a serious border dispute with China but its trade with China has been consistently increasing and might exceed even 100 billion dollars this year, indicating, that Security issues need not be mixed up with business.
So, when the world is no more divided into Blocks and permanent alliances, some have described this new phase as a new Cold War between two major powers, but, as a matter of fact, we are now living in a world where countries’ policies and relations are being largely dictated by their own interests rather than the group’s or alliance’ interests. For instance;
Many of the EU members are a part of NATO alliance led by USA but now EU is the largest trading partner of China. India, US, Israel and UAE can form an economic cooperation platform, which was unthinkable a few years ago. The Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020 between a collective of Arab states led by the UAE and Israel underlined the need to normalize their relations after decades of conflict.
So, there are two essential elements that would be guiding the international relations.
In the realm of economic affairs, we may have a multi-polar world And as seen through the lens of the security ; cyber security , artificial intelligence, territorial issues, we may be approaching a new Cold War between Russia, China on one side and West on the other.
Both of these elements are part of a new geopolitics, where major players will be competing with each other on both these fronts; geo economic and geo security.
However, despite the competition and the cold war situation the economic relations will continue thereby providing enough opportunities to other countries and private actors to actively participate and have multilateral trading and Business relations. One can safely presume that Modern geopolitics therefore shall be increasingly influenced by geo economics and geo-technology but geo security will also remain an important factor.
For instance, India has thriving trading relations with China as well as USA despite the fact that the two of them are also competing amongst themselves and India is an important memeber of Quad , ( that has been primarily formed to contain belligerent China) and it also has a serious border dispute with China which is an all weather friend of Pakistan; India’s arch rival.
Implying that the security aspects do not impinge the trading relations, but at the same time India is also investing heavily on modernization of its armed forces and is equipping its armed forces to fight a war on two and half front (China, Pakistan and militancy).
This situation gives India a unique advantage because of its strategic location, huge skilled manpower, strong armed forces and a reasonably strong technology base, although it may still be far behind to play a leadership role in global technology.
The current geo political situation therefore allows India to build and sustain its relations with nations which might be inimical to its interests; Russia- which sidelined India on Afghanistan, belligerent China as well as USA which is in competition with China and the Arab world despite the Kashmir issue and relations with Israel.
The world now cannot be viewed in Black and White shade( Friend or Foe), there will be lot of Grey and over lapping. This implies that nations are free to build their relations based on their respective geo economic interests and geo security interests and more often the two may not be inclusive, for instance India can be a member of Quad – which is quintessentially a group to contain belligerent China’s behavior but at the same time be a part of Shanghai Cooperation group and continue trading relations with China as well as Russia (Friend of China).
This crucial geopolitical shift allows India more elbow room in the geopolitical arena despite the presence of belligerent China as next door neighbor.
India can make use of this situation to its advantage, if it is able to harness its strengths ; keeping its human resource highly Skilled, improving its technology base by focusing on cutting edge technology, keeping its armed forces modern and well equipped and become a role model for political and social harmony.
It would therefore be good for the nation if it pays heed to what Mr Brahma Chelanny many years ago had written;
In spite the economic progress, India can neither wait half a century to be heard with respect internationally nor can rising prosperity by itself bring power and respect as exemplified by todays Japan, which faces a dwindling international profile inspite remaining the worlds second largest economic power house. There is hence a need to project national power through an integrated approach, which utilizes the military, economic, cultural, social, political & technology levers.
Notwithstanding the above, many in India misunderstand the essential elements of Soft Power(cultural and social environment) mistaking it as an outcome of religious Shastras rather than Governance . In this regard refer to article ; The Presstitutes; Why are they quiet on India's Declining Soft Power.