Restoring Peace in war torn Afghanistan seems to be one of the most complex problems, and, despite thousands being displaced, killed, injured and Afghanistan has turned into a rubble, one cannot see light at the other end of the tunnel.
The treacherous nature of the insurgency, the divided and ineffective Afghan government, clash of interests amongst different stake holders ; China, Pakistan, Iran, Taliban, USA, Russia, India, Afghan Govt , the tribal Afghan society are all contributing towards making it a complex issue.
USA has already suffered huge casualties and it appears in no mood to continue deploying its troops. Thus it decided to have an agreement with Taliban whom it bombed out of Kabul Post 9/11. It has been one year since the United States and Taliban signed a landmark agreement leading to a political settlement between Kabul and the Islamic insurgents.
Under the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban deal, the U.S. forces were to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021, while the Taliban have to provide security guarantees, cease support of al-Qaida, and deny safe haven to foreign terrorists. The deal also aimed to pave the way for a permanent ceasefire and direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghan leadership. However, the February 2020 Doha agreement and the subsequent negotiations have failed to bring
It would be naïve to believe that US Govt was not aware of the dangerous path it is treading as any withdrawal can set the whole region on fire like Syria. Hence, the fate of the so-called peace deal, hangs in balance as to how Taliban sticks to the terms and conditions of the deal. The number of attacks in and around the Afghan capital over the past year leaves no one in doubt about the Taliban’s intentions.
Pakistan is the Key Player.
As regards Pakistan, an important stake holder in this war, USA has tried everything Post 9/11 ; From making Pakistan an ally in fighting Taliban amounting to running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, threats about sending Pakistan to the “stone age” to raising it to the status of “non-NATO ally,” accusing its prime intelligence agency of supporting the Haqqani terrorist network,” cutting down its aid but nothing has worked.
From the age of SEATO and CENTO to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the emergence of the Taliban, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 2020 Taliban-U.S. pact, U.S.-Pakistan relations have although taken many twists and turns but the core object of this love-hate relationship has always stayed the same ;-
Pakistan expects the United States to compel India to compromise on the issue of Kashmir, force Afghanistan to accept the British-era Durand Line as a permanent border. It also wants U.S. help in reducing the Indian role in Afghanistan and continued flows of money and hardware for the Pakistani military. The United States on the other hand wants Pakistan to safeguard its strategic interests in the region, by controlling the Jehadis emanating from its soil and also an emerging China.
Pakistan, played its role in war against Taliban and Al quaeda smartly like the proverbial running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. And on China front also it has continued expanding its strategic relations with Beijing and currently the relations have become so deep rooted that the duo are operating hand in glove in almost all mischiefs in the region.
In view of the above, Both the United States and Pakistan have more suspicions than trust and their relations despite being half a century old have not yet been more than transactional in nature ; depends on give and take.
And given their defined national and geostrategic interests, and the values of the society it is not likely to be any different in the near future.
Pakistan’s core interests in Afghanistan, from the point of view of its military objectives, remain absolutely the same as they were in 90s – A subservient Afghanistan that does not pose challenge to Pakistan’s strategic interests in the region, provides Pakistan a Strategic depth vis a vis India , as well as, keeping India away from encircling Pakistan from the west. The Taliban were, a creation of Pakistan establishment for this above stated strategic purposes and it operates hand in glove with the Pak’s intelligence agencies and other terrors groups operating from Pakistan to serve that purpose.
Despite all the pressure by Bush, Obama, Trump, Pakistan has continued to support its Jehadis, whom they term as assets. The Taliban supported by Pakistan hence will remain a force to reckon with in foreseeable future.
US Study Group Report
Biden, the new US President who is an old hat must be aware of all this tricky past that any amount of military, financial, cold shouldering, and carrots are not going to work to bring peace and pull out the US Forces.
So, The congressionally mandated Afghanistan Study Group in its February 2021 report, suggested a regional diplomatic strategy that would focus on getting Afghanistan’s neighbors to use their influence to persuade the warring sides toward a peace process. They also recommended a hands-off approach by the regional powers towards Taliban, for the purpose of regional peace, stability, and economic development. This they thought may also help persuade China to come forward and play a proactive role for the sake of its huge investment plans in the region. China as of now is happy playing the role of a bystander, as its proxy –Pakistan is doing all that it wants.
Although, on papers it may appear to be good to involve local regional players and use their influence to bring peace in the war torn region but as a matter of fact finding common ground amongst all of them will be a herculean task.
Taliban Intelligently spread its Reach
Taliban also, Since their emergence from isolation have cleverly extended their outreach by first opening their out shore office at Doha, capital of Qatar, thereafter, they spread their reach visiting neighboring countries including Iran, Russia, and the Central Asia states ; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, apart from their already closer ties with Pakistan and China.
The major players that can influence peace in Afghanistan besides Pakistan and Taliban and elected Afgahn Govt are Iran, Russia and China who hve their own interests.
On January 27, after meeting the Taliban leaders Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, tweeted that: “In today’s meeting with the Taliban political delegation: I found the leaders of this group determined to fight the United States.” This ostensibly raised an eyebrow among Afghan officials. Who immediately retorted that the Iranian minister has no idea of the warfare, the Taliban is not fighting the USA, they are fighting their own people.
Russia, which has been a good friend of India is also an important stake holder in the peace process as it wants to prevent Islamic state from establishing its presence close to its borders of Tajikistan and hence in this regard one may see a shift here vis a vis Taliban. So, it was not surprising when Taliban leaders visited Russia. Russia has also now developed closer releations with Pakistan in recent years and recently when. Russia’s Presidential Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, visited Pakistan and, met Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. After meeting with Kabulov, Qureshi remarked that Pakistan and Russia share a desire for “an inclusive political settlement (to) the conflict in Afghanistan.” On the other hand, Kabulov said that Moscow would convene a meeting to create a mechanism involving the US, China, Iran and Pakistan, leading to the announcement of a ceasefire.
As regards, China, it has discreetly strengthened its presence in Afghanistan, by enhancing its diplomatic and economic ties with Afghanistan,. Chinese interests in Afghanistan are largely associated with economic interests as it hopes to integrate Afghanistan into Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The provisional government led by President Hamid Karzai in 2001, developed bilateral ties with China and thereafter,China began to explore commercial opportunities in resource-rich Afghanistan. However, it refrained from getting involved in the muddled politics of Afghanistan. Thereafter, since 2014, the National Unity Government (NUG) in Afghanistan, led by President Ashraf Ghani, has been advocating for greater Chinese involvement in the country, may be with a hope that it may be able to use the “Chinese Card” against its hostile neighbour Pakistan which has increasingly strengthened the ideological foundations in the Taliban.
China’s willingness to involve in Afghanistan is driven by its own security consrns related to Xinjiang Province where Uighur Muslims have been demanding for a separate state. China claims the Xinjiang region to be the breeding ground for terrorism, separatism, and religious extremism and Afghanistan poses a risk of being a launch pad to establish links with already vulnerable Uighur- inhabited areas of China. Moreover, China also fears that the ideological influence of pan-Islamic groups functioning in the tribal areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan can exacerbate separatism in Xinjiang. Many exiled Uighur fighters have found sanctuary in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and the southern and eastern provinces of Afghanistan. It is widely believed that the fighters are affiliated with other transnational outfits, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), ISIS, Al-Qaeda... AND MANY MORE.
In September 2018, the Afghan Ambassador to Beijing reportedly said in an interview that China is willing to train Afghan soldiers on China, in an effort to counter Islamic State (ISIS) and Al- Qaeda militants attempting to infiltrate Xinjiang through the northeastern border of Afghanistan, the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. If one goes by the media reports and intelligence organizations from across the world they are claiming that Chinese have established a military base in the Wakhan Corridor of the Badakhshan Province of Afghanistan. Please refer to the Picture.
Although China has repeatedly denied the claims, but there are all the possibilities of such a camp being established there to check the infiltration of terrorists to their XINKIANG PROVINCE. Owing to the geographically strategic location of Afghanistan, the country has immense potential to link the markets of South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, and China. Afghanistan is also home to a huge resource repository, ranging from rare earth elements to copper deposits, gold, iron ore, lithium and more.
In 2016, China and Afghanistan signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) which served as a commitment to jointly promote cooperation under the BRI and marked the beginning of Afghanistan’s integration in the transcontinental infrastructural development. China and Afghanistan are connected in northern Afghanistan via Sino–Afghanistan Special Railway Transportation Project and the Five Nations Railway Project, and projects to connect with Southern Afghanistan via the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in a mutually beneficial accord. The two countries have also initiated a fibre optic link via the Wakhan Corridor in the Badakhshan Province of Afghanistan. According to the Ministry of Public Works and AFRA, Afghanistan Rail Network will be beneficial in the transportation and industrial construction of goods and commodities. It will also resolve the problem of transporting Afghanistan’s mineral products to regional ports. Experts say that the network will facilitate the transportation of agricultural products and connect the provinces and economic centres of the country.
China has proved to be one of the most significant trading partners for Afghanistan; thus both sides continuing to show a tendency towards more commercial exchanges. The trade volume between both countries has increased significantly as China has realized how significant is the relations with Afghanistan seeking the strategic geographical presence of the nation-states in the region. According to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the bilateral trade volume between the two countries reached US $544 million in 2017.
So, one may notice that all the powers that have a stake in Afghanistan are courting Taliban as well as the Afgahnistan Govt and are likely to continue to do so inorder to to play a waiting game. Bringing them on board as suggested by the Study Group may enhance their responsibility and enhance the chances of US Withdrawla at the soonest. However, as USA has reduced its trop presence over a period of time , China has gradually increased its presence in the region…CPEC…Gwadar Port…trade etc.
This must be a cause of concern for USA also that it is quite likely that China may be gearing itself to to take advantage of the uncertainity that may emerge as a consequence to its withdrawal.
Although, President Ashraf Ghani and his team, had criticized U.S. Afghan envoy for a “bad deal” with the Taliban, and insisted that the existing deal needs to be reviewed but has shown his consent for a deal. He said that if “the objective of the Taliban is to dominate and give us the peace of the graveyard, then that will have very negative consequences.” Afghanistan’s ambassador to Washington, went a step ahead by warning that “the consequences of a false peace deal are as dire as no deal at all.”
The Ghani government’s key demand is an immediate ceasefire, but the Taliban are more interested in forming an interim government. Divisions within the Afghan government have also become ever more apparent as several key opposition leaders are not averse to the idea of an interim government.
Since the Afghan peace process began two years ago, India’s role in it has been peripheral. Although India has long chosen to refrain from putting boots on the ground in Afghanistan, it has however provided the Afghan security forces with critical operational training, limited military equipment, and capacity-building courses—assistance that was ramped up after the signing of the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement in October 2011. It has also contributed towards strengthening its democratic institutions and also in infrastructure development. India has always stood for an “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled” peace process.
Now that the new US State Department has announced the resumption of talks with Taliban as the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad is set to visit Kabul and other regional capitals for a durable political settlement in Afghanistan and the letter written by the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, to the top Afghan leadership has set new parameters of the Afghan peace process.
It clearly indicates that the Biden administration is seriously reviewing its Afghan policy, including the possibility of full withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by 1 May, a deadline stipulated by the US-Taliban deal signed in February 2020. However, as seen from New Delhi, the most important element of Blinken’s formula, is the role assigned to India.
The formula is based on setting up two mechanisms to end the war in Afghanistan. First, a regional conference under the banner of the United Nations with foreign ministers of six countries – US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and India – to discuss a “unified approach” on Afghanistan. Second, a dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government in Turkey.
Obvioulsy, India’s inclusion in the regional conference format would be a positive development for New Delhi and for Pakistan, it must be disturbing. However, the second mechanism is enough to please Pakistan given the latter’s warm ties with Turkey. In order to achieve its strategic interests, Pakistan’s security establishment continues to provide the Taliban fighters sanctuary in the tribal areas to counter India’s soft-power influence in Afghanistan, and control its foreign policies, Pakistan is fully backing Taliban and wants to install them in Kabul, which can pose a major threat to India's efforts in building democratic and development institutions in the war-torn country .
India has been trying to devise new diplomacy with the traditionally friendly countries. However, with Russia, China have been courting Taliban and appear to be close to Pakistan now, it is difficult to assess as to how India will preserve its interests in Afghanistan.
Will the Formulation work.
The US study group has worked on a premise that None other than Pakistan amongst the regional countries needs a boost to its economy, So, Certain assurances vis-à-vis its perceived or true concerns about Afghanistan, India, or the India-Afghanistan nexus may attract the Pakistani leadership to become a somehow responsible partner in the Afghan peace process.
But prima facie, once again, USA is getting it wrong by expecting Pakistan to be a responsible partner and secondly the strategy to please Pakistan may be at the cost of India will surely backfire. This kind of an offer by USA has not worked in past because Jehad is now a business in Pakistan and there are numerous non state actors who have become stake holders in this business and secondly none can please the Jehadis, the fundamentalists as they will always be able to create grievances.
India would not like Taliban to be playing a key role in Afghanistan because it knows that this will only be benefiting the numerous Jehadis supported by Islamic fundamentalists operating in this region including Kashmir. Afghanistan will in all perpetuity become a huge hub for terrorists if Taliban is allowed any key role to play in Afghanistan. India may not be directly connected to Afghanistan but it has great stakes in the peace process. It knows that a triumphant march of Taliban in Kabul, may embolden the Jihadis and fundamentalists elsewhere in the region and its consequences may be felt all over including Kashmir.
Although, the other regional powers have been courting Taliban leadership but that does not imply that they will accept or are not aware of the dangers of Taliban’s triumphant march in Kabul can lead to in their own countries.
In view of the above, despite involving the regional powers , these powers will most likely play a waiting game and will not be as eager to jump into taking any responsibility as US might be to withdraw.