Appears that Indian External Affairs Ministry and the Military are working in Silos
This is not the first time that the External Affairs Ministry of the Govt of India did not bother to take the opinion of the military or if it all it took the view, it did not care for it and the Nation has to pay a heavy price for it.
One instance was way back in 90s when the Govt of India eager to have peace at its borders signed an Agreement with China. The 1993 agreement, that created the LAC(Line of Actual Control), signed by the two countries to maintain peace and tranquillity did not define where the line lies. As a result China in last few years has moved the LAC as India understood it after 1993 to well inside Indian territory. This ranges from 1.5km in some places to 4.5km in others. And as it has been happening since last 50 years, China has offered a legal argument to justify its new positions on the ground. It says ; The Line was not defined.
And why did it happen because the then external affairs ministry did not pay heed to the army advise which was insisting that the Line must be called as Line of Existing Control so that the positions could be frozen and there is no change hereafter. But the external affairs ministry wizards did not pay heed.
Once again it has happened , on the issue of Taliban.
While replying to a question in Rajyasabha on the issue of situation in AFGHANISTAN External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told the Rajya Sabha on July 29,
“We will work with the international community to ensure that political negotiations for settlement are pursued and we will never accept any outcome which is decided by force.”
Now, only a month later, when the last plane of USA has left the Hon’ble minister says ; We are Waiting and Watching.
One needs to go through this statement and the timings carefully to comprehend the issues behind.
When he made this statement on 29 July, Taliban had captured almost 200 districts, Kabul was almost choked, Its Govt was crumbling and its head the President on whom India was banking scooted 15 days later.
So, It was clear on 29 Jul that the Taliban had gained unstoppable military momentum.
Was it not known that with several months still left before cold weather that may curtail major combat operations, and with barely 100 districts left with the Afghanistan Govt, it is going to be an uphill task, unless USA uses its Airforce extensively in support of Afghan forces.
Was it not known to the external affairs wizards that Military Victory will lead to Political Power.
Pl refer to the article dated 27Jul https://www.bharatamrising.com/us-is-leaving-taliban-is-in-what-next.
If it was not known to the Ministry of External affairs then were the Indian armed forces and the Office of Chief of Def staff also unaware.
In that sense, Mr Jaishankar’s comment becomes all the more interesting because the Indian army had reached the conclusion by then that the Taliban would take over Kabul.
Gen Bipin Rawat Speaking at a think-tank, said: “From India’s perspective, we were anticipating a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.” He went on to add, “Yes, the timelines certainly surprised us. We were anticipating this thing happening a couple of months down the line.”
Now the issue is General Rawat has not been taken by surprise as far as Taliban capturing Kabul and taking over the Political power but the Indian Govt has been .
This happened because the Indian army must have carefully analysed the nature of the war in Afghanistan, the capabilities of Taliban, the level of assistance being provided by Pakistan army and also the potential of the Afghan security forces built up under the Americans.
So the next issue that comes up is ; Why did n’t the Govt seek an opinion from the armed forces, now that it has a branch headed by Gen Bipin Rawat, whose opinion could have been sought.
Is the office of Gen Bipin Rawat just a show window used by Govt to display that they are positive about reforms in the security set up of the country.If not then why could Ministry of external affairs not read the situation and was so confident on 29 Jul and is now, after Kabul has been captured, telling the country to have strategic patience.
Vivek Katju in his article in Indian Express writes: ‘Strategic patience’ cannot be an alibi for inaction.