The great German statesman Bismarck had aptly remarked, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise learns from the mistakes of others.”
So in that sense, General Naravane has rightly commented;
We should be ready for a Conventional war and learn lessons from the Ukraine war.
However, we can only be ready and prepare ourselves provided we derive Right lessons from this ongoing Russia – Ukraine war and execute them EARNESTLY.
At no stage we Indians must forget that We Have Two Rogue Nations as Neighbours To Deal With. Though war is the last option adopted by Nations after all other measures have failed to achieve the Foreign policy objective but it still remains a potent option for a rogue state/ ruler and this fact must never be lost sight of, that we have two such Rogue states adjoining us. The Indian military therefore must be prepared to fight a two front war and also keep in mind that Pakistan is not likely to remain weak forever and we may in future have to face a resurgent Pakistan. If we undermine these lessons as enumerated below , we may find oursleves in a tight spot.
One. The War Has Finally Changed the Mindset. This war thankfully has changed the mindset of many security experts serving and retired who have been writing and speaking that the current geo political situation does not allow a conventional war to take place. Last year also we were on the verge of a conventional war with China, but as it ended in disengagement through negotiations, this further lent to this mindset.
The Invasion by Russia has brought back the reality of conventional war. The military commanders are aware as to how this mindset has impacted the training and planning aspects over the years and they must address those at the earliest.
Two. You are alone. UNO, USA and no other country or Alliance will help you out when you are attacked. Yes, they may provide you weapon systems and financial help and also impose sanctions on the invader but that also depends on many factors. For instance, if China attacks India, China may not face the same kind of stringent sanctions as Russia is facing now. So, if the invader has done his homework well and insulated his economy from initial shock, the current geo – political situation emboldens rogue nations to take such steps as has been taken by Russia.
Three.
Even Cities thousands of Kms away from Border can face destruction. If India has to face a conventional war now it will not be restricted to only border areas, unlike it happened in 1962, 1965, 1971 and in Kargil war. Now, Even our Cities, Hospitals , schools located thousands of kms away from Border can be targeted and can come under enemy’s fire. Hence, besides being geared up administratively to control the destruction and sufferings in depth areas we need to gear ourselves up; Emotionally and Mentally. We don’t see many breast beating and wailing Ukrainians despite the colossal losses and destruction. Even at this time of crisis most of them appeared to be disciplined. Take our minds back to Kandhar Hijack and how disgracefully we conducted ourselves.
Four. Integration of information and intelligence systems with Fire Power. The US must have surely helped the Ukrainians with early warning and surveillance but their integration with long range weapon systems and with troops on ground has enabled the Ukrainians to bring down effective fire on Russian advancing columns and slowing down their advance. However, we are nowhere near this. Last year the Chinese took us by surprise in Ladakh as we once again failed to gauge the Chinese concentration and intentions and as a result suffered casualties at Galwan.
Mountains offer us this opportunity provided we are able to show urgency on this aspect and integrate our intelligence and surveillance capabilities with the fire power. We can surely turn any Chinese adventure into a misadventure.
Five. A small force, if appropriately employed and even if it is not carrying sophisticated weapon systems, it can still stop the powerful invader. The Ukrainians have just done that;
The hand held portable air defense systems and hand held anti tank weapon systems deployed in large numbers have proved to be very effective and have been able to deter superior air force and powerful armored columns. An Ukrainian commented “If Russians have more tanks we have more anti tank weapons “.
Six. Propaganda War. Both sides have resorted to propaganda war and as a result both sides are accusing each other for deaths and misery , and the end result is - the truth gets buried and people want to believe what they wish to. However its importance can never be undermined and state must keep its people always informed with facts instead of them coming to know through enemy sources.
Seven. Integration of Politico-Military Plan. For Russians it appeared to be a simple politico-military plan - Hit Ukraine hard, Topple its government and Establish a puppet regime which would help in regaining the lost Russian superpower status. But it did not go the way it was conceived, because ;
Firstly. It was out rightly a Political plan which was not linked to the military plan.
Secondly. A Political objective must be such which can be easily translated into a military objective. Did the Russians deliberate on the issue as to which military objective if captured would lead to the fall of Govt and Has the Ukrainian Govt lost local support. For instance ; Capture of Dacca in 1971 was a military objective which led to the liberation of East Pakistan - which was a Political Objective. It happened easily because
Alpha , Dacca was the Political capital of East Pakistan and also its nerve center.
Bravo. The Indian military had the local popular support.
Therefore, Even if Russian military is able to capture Kyiv at some point of time, governing Ukraine with alienated local population will become a herculean task.
Last but not the Least, The Political Leader must be wise enough to understand the character of his Officers who are responsible to feed him information, Care must be taken to keep sycophants away or else they will feed the Political Boss the kind of information that he wants to hear. It is quite likely that Putin must have been repeatedly told that the Ukrainian leadership will flee to Europe like the Afghanistan President escaped when attacked by Taliban. If you keep sycophants near, they will surely lead the nation to disaster.
Now when we look at these lessons that can be derived from the ongoing war in our context we notice that ;
One. Our current expenditure on defense is awfully low, given the kind of threat we face. To build a strong military capable to fight two rogue nations simultaneously on two different fronts, one needs a strong economy and no nation can have a strong military without a strong manufacturing base. All the three go hand in hand. India’s expenditure of 2 % of GDP is pea nuts, when compared to our adversaries and with this budget also we are ranked as the largest importer of def equipment, it conveys the whole story ; WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG MANUFACTURING BASE. Clearly, we have a long road to travel; forget about emerging as a superpower even to achieve self reliance in def manufacturing.
Two. Hence, we need to scale up the def expenditure but right now we are stuck in a VICIOUS CIRCLE ; - Poor economic condition - Poor manufacturing base – High Imports of weapon systems- Low Def expenditure - Minimal expenditure on Research And now the sanctions on Russia and rising oil prices will further adversely impact our military operational efficiency.
To overcome this challenge, the following lessons from the Ukraine war can help us out temporarily ;.
One. As a short term measure till our economy does not permit to equip its military with top of the shelf and state of the art weapon systems, it must SERIOUSLY think of managing a fine balance between Quantity vis a vis Quality, Number of sophisticated weapon platforms vis a vis their cheap counter measures.
What it basically implies is - Its not necessary that we spend huge amounts of money in buying latest fighter aircrafts and interceptors to scare away enemy’s aircrafts if the same task can be done by deploying large number of portable anti aircraft missile systems , similarly enemy’s huge military column can be stalled by the use of unarmed and armed drones and other surveillance means if they are effectively integrated with the long range missiles and artillery fire.
Hundreds of Bees can easily kill even a Lion.