As the events have unfolded in last few years , it is now very clear that this world is now neither bipolar, as in the Cold War, nor unipolar, as it was after the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor it is truly multi polar.
However, one can still not miss the point that there are two major powers the US and China, who are locked in a rivalry and the rest of the countries are realigning themselves to this reality. As the relationships today are more intertwined because of the economic interdependence , it is very unlikely that this may ever deteriorate into a full fledged conventional war. Notwithstanding the above there is likely to be an intense strategic competition and also mistrust.
Given the hegemonistic manner in which China is operating , there is little doubt that its security profile will expand and that would encompass India’s neighbourhood as well. After the fall of Afghanistan, captured by Pakistan, a proxy of China, it is certain that a China-dominated Asian security and economic order may become inimical to India’s interests .
It is therefore, essential that India takes effective measures in terms of security and integrating its neighbors economically.
This integration is only possible when India itself is self reliant and strong enough to instill confidence amongst its small neighbours. A weak India will not be able to withstand this challenge.
The risk of China-Pakistan collusive action and Pakistan’s increasing significance in China’s global strategy is real , albeit remote. However, it requires our military strategy to plan and develop credible force that can deal with a worst-case scenario of a two-front war.
However, the rate at which China is manufacturing attack aircrafts and warships ,( it has even surpassed USA), it is unlikely that a conventional approach can ever help us matching China in terms of equipment holding.
Hence the following needs to be done ;
One. Tie down China at LAC . Mountains offer great advantage to the defender , hence use locals to thwart Chinese designs of occupying tactically important places on our side of LAC. If Chinese try to escalate it militarily , they as an attacker would always be on a disadvantageous position, however, be open to negotiations.
Two. Given China’s present attitude. The India-China border issue could at best be managed rather than solved, hence , it is pointless making any attempt to solve the impending issues. Thus instead of India waiting for negotiations, create a situation that China is also equally eager to negotiate.
Third. Give up this inhibition for Quality and instead focus on numbers also. Very soon China will be able to pitch 5th generation fighters that too hundreds of them against us, but if we are also able to deploy few 5th generation fighters in conjunction with hundreds of 4th generation aircrafts, that will also deter the enemy to bulldoze its way. Lets not forget, One can deal with a few strong Honey bees but if one is attacked by hundreds of weak bees accompanied by few strong bees, it would become extremely difficult to deal with their stings. Lets, therefore, create a swarm of frigates, submarines and fighter aircrafts at a faster rate and deploy them against China, even if they are of low quality. Yes a suitable balance of Quality vs quantity has to be maintained. To be fair, even China does the same thing. The appropriate role of these low quality frigates, submarines, aircrafts can always be worked out. If they keep coming in one behind the other even the enemy equipped with best of equipment will have a tough time dealing with the swarm of frigates, aircrafts and guns.
Lastly, Gear up to challenge and compete with China without breaking economic relations i.e. Do not involve economics and business with Politics. India must not be shy of taking steps that may hurt China's stated interests. India also must exploit its nuisance value ; like China, Pakistan and even Nepal often does it. For instance India also can claim that Janakpur , a town in Nepal belongs to India. As per India's democratic values Tibet and Taiwan have a right to free and fair elections and decide their own fate. India also should demand China to disclose the whereabouts of Missing tennis star Peng Shuai. India must not let any such opportunity go by just to please China.
Conclusion.
India must reconcile to the fact that a China-dominated Asian security and economic order will remain inimical to India’s interests and Second, China has gone so far ahead of India technologically, militarily and economically that India is now going to find difficult to challenge China even in its own backyard i.e South Asia.
Therefore , India must workout a strategy based on a combination of engagement and competition with China.
Second. Tie up with powers that have a concern with China’s growth i.e USA, Australia,Japan. Although, they can never be relied upon.
Three. India must go all out to transform itself into a strong, prosperous, inclusive country at peace with itself and its neighbours. In the longer term, if there is one country which, in terms of its size, population, economic potential, scientific and technical capabilities, can match or even surpass China, it is India.