The US retreat and subsequent invasion of Afghanistan and its capture by Pakistan using its proxy Taliban has not only exposed the inability of the world to comprehend the multi dimensions of the ongoing religious war but has also emboldened hundreds of Islamic organizations and also vindicated Pakistan’s policy of using terror Groups as a tool of foreign policy.
Many other States have Indulged in Proxy War
Although almost all the States have at some time or the other waged a proxy war. President Dwight D Eisenhower once called proxy wars ‘the cheapest insurance in the world’, while former Pakistani President Zia-ul- Haq deemed them necessary to ‘keep the pot boiling’ has proved to be an irresistible strategic allurement for nations and Pakistan has virtually succeeded in this.
However, these Proxies used by Pakistan are for a different purpose and motivation; they all are striving for establishment of Islamic rule through Islamic Shariat. The foot soldiers are indoctrinated at Madrasas by Maulanas located in Pakistan and sent to fight for Islam. They are challenging the global community in the guise of Religious freedom and destroying others religious freedom.
Essential Features of Proxy War
The proxy war has no clear boundaries, leads to conflicts between communities, encourages foreign interventions and grants legitimacy to violence and its difficult to prove. In this conflict non-state actors become a major force . Everywhere, be it Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq , Afghanistan this use of Proxies has led to a potential increase in the engagement of proxy strategies by states.
The Support for a proxy often leads other states to back their own favored horse, which worsens the overall conflict. For instance ; Lebanon, Syria and now Afghanistan where too many nations get involved and start meddling in and supporting their own horses/ factions. This, in turn, also increases the independence of the proxies as they could threaten to turn to other powers if they felt unsupported.
So, even if Pakistan due to its deteriorating economic situation may in future want to stop sponsoring proxies, it will not be able to shut the doors for all the terror groups that thrive on its soil. There is now a huge huge eco system that manages these hundreds of Jehadi groups, and if it tries to do that, it will be at its own peril.
Can The Sponsorer distance himself from the Proxy?
If the sponsoring state believes its proxy is no longer a useful military tool—because the proxy has shown itself to be an ineffective fighting force for the main military aim the state sponsorer—the sponsorer is likely to draw down its investment. In Kashmir many such Tanzeems who could not deliver fell out of favour of ISI.
However, Pakistan over a period of 40 years has acquired the ability of creating numerous proxy groups and Taliban has now emerged as a formidable Proxy group. It is also possible that the proxies may get disinterested and abandon their sponsors, refuse to continue receiving support from them, or distance themselves particularly when the relationship has shown itself no longer beneficial to the proxy or, more importantly, the war/ sponsorship appears to be a barrier to key goals the proxy wants to pursue,
This can be a possibility in India because India is amongst the top economies of the world and provides numerous opportunities of growth. It is also a vibrant democracy which does not stifle any ones voice/ opposition. The manner in which millions of Afghans tried escaping after the Taliban take over is an indication that even amongst the Muslims there is a large percentage of population who aspires to live in freedom and grow economically.
Hence, if the Communal environment remains healthy in India and it continues to grow economically the chances are that the local proxies may break that relation. For instance in Kashmir, where the locals are no more interested in fighting and as a result Pakistan has to create Proxies from within its own population. The LET, JEM etc are largely drawing its men from Pakistan and not from Kashmir.
The Unique Features of Religious war against India.
Pakistan over a period of 40 years fighting Russians, Americans and Indians using its proxies has created an eco system which has certain unique features. These have to be identified while preparing a strategy to deal with this Proxy war.
One. Choking is Impossible. There is no dearth of funds, with the Proxies and choking them is not going to serve any purpose. They can sustain themselves by generating enough funds using fake currency, through hawala market, through drug trade . One may make transfer of funds difficult but to choke them is going to be impossible, so hurting them economically may not be a sole solution, yes it can be a part of a holistic solution. However, Pakistan as a Sponsorer can be choked by International community and compelled to take action against these proxies. Moreover with Afghanistan now in its bag, opium trade is likely to flourish.
Two. Human Resource will never be a problem. These Proxy groups draw their soldiers and leaders from a society which is not interested in producing Engineers, Doctors, Managers and scholars and they have little interest in setting up industries and business enterprises. Their sole purpose is to spread Islamic Sharia rule. They come from Madrasas and streets of Pakistan where modern education has little importance. Jehad itself has become an occupation. Therefore, there will never be any shortage of human resource to them. Astonishingly, even educated scholars have joined their ranks for the spread of Islam.
Three. One or the Other Big Power will always extend Support. Pakistan as the sponsorer will always be able to manage the support of one of the big powers ; USA or Russia or China which will allow them to hood wink the world community. The rivalry amongst the big powers will always help them to switch supporters. Earlier they became allies of USA and drove out Russians, thereafter allied with USA in the guise of a war against terror post 9/11and now with China and Russia to allow its Proxy to succeed. The concept of Good Terrorism and Bad terrorism, Religious Freedom will always be exploited to manipulate International support. It is the outcome of this rivalry amongst Big powers that prominent leaders declared by UNO as terrorists are roaming free in Pakistan.
Four. All are Hand in Glove. The number of agencies involved in this Jehad ; ISI, scores of terrorist organizations, Pak military, Pak Govt and other fundamentalist/ religious organizations like Jamait e Islami and Markaz al Dawat al Irshad, numerous Madrasas, NGOs, under world elements, although superficially look to be different and at times may appear to operate at cross purposes, , but in actual fact they all are hand in glove. They at times appear to operate in cross purpose inorder to ward off pressure. Therefore, it is not surprising that whenever the World started doubting Gen Musharraf’s commitment towards fighting terror, that Al Quaeda started issuing threats to Mussharaff and Pak Govt apprehended one odd terrorist of Al Quaida to calm down the nerves of International community. This is how the sponsorer of terror / proxy war in Afghanistan and in India has been sustaining itself all these years.
Five. The Sponsorer manipulates the world opinion using its Nuisance Value. USA after fighting Taliban and AlQuaeda for 20 years realized that No peace in Afghanistan is possible without involving Pakistan so they made sure India is kept away to satisfy Pakistan, the same goes for China and Russia. China is interested in keeping Taliban happy so that the virus of Jehad does not spread to its Xinxiang province, Russians are concerned that it should not reach Central Asian republics ; Tajikistan, Ujbekistan etc. The world is now scared of Pakistan’s and its Proxies nuisance value. Thence these proxies and their sponsorer will always be able to manipulate the opinion because of their nuisance value. For instance, they assured the western world that they are a key element in pursuing Taliabn to a negotiating table and when the peace negotiations with the Taliban were on they were using all their propaganda machine to project Taliban as a transformed, peace loving organization and as a result the US also played the same tune because they were keen to have a peace deal with Taliban and get out of Afghanistan.
Six. The proxy war has no boundaries. The form of conflict which has emerged is unstructured and fluid, the adversary is faceless and national boundaries have become defused. The battle space is undefined. It is now being fought within and beyond land borders, in the physical and psychological domains. Mind is used as a target so that perceptions can be managed . Mind is also used as weapon by creating a Perception of Just Cause. The Jehadi groups are capable of creating thousands of zombies. The advent of social media and IT revolution, has enabled them to cross land boundaries to spread their message. For instance. Many prominent citizens and learned muslims like Dr Zakir Naik, who once ran a huge organization, named Islamic Research Foundation publicly praise Alquaeda. he was a very popular Islamic scholar. Dr. Zakir Naik's satellite TV channel, Peace TV, claimed a global viewership of up to 50 million people in 125 countries. He reportedly said, "If Bin Laden is fighting enemies of Islam, I am for him," and that "If he is terrorizing America – the terrorist, biggest terrorist – I am with him. Every Muslim should be a terrorist. The thing is that if he is terrorizing the terrorist, he is following Islam.”
So a situation has arisen that even your neighbor who may appear to be docile might have been turned into a zombie by people like Dr Naik and there are millions of netizens in India.
Seven. Any PERCIEVED political discontentment or grievance can be created / encouraged and targeted from within and outside.. No one can understand better than India, the political discontentment in Kashmir in 1990 gave Pakistan opportunity to step in and fill the gaps with its proxy war. The local politicans instead of warning the youth of grave consequences instigated them and acted as facilitators for their own vested interests. And this has not stopped as yet. It is also not difficult for any dispassionate observer to assess as to why so many from NE States, Kashmir, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand etc have joined separatist/ leftists movements against the Govt of India and if some have not joined the separatist ranks or Maoists/Naxalites they have become their sympathisers. The reasons; rampant corruption, poverty, illiteracy, lack of basic amenities, poor infrastructure facilities and unemployment. The existence of these conditions aggravates the sense of alienation amongst the people of these areas particularly when some of the fortunate ones find that India is developing at a fast pace and their States are being neglected .
It is the sense of alienation fueled by the lack of facilities that is responsible for the violence in these States. The young who have rebelled draw their strength from all pervasive hopelessness and the rage that this feeling of hopelessness continuously feeds. This rage does not die out because there is a wide spread feeling of helplessness and exclusion. Although huge sums have been spent under numerous schemes & plans, but the villages and towns in these regions remain poor. The reason is that most of the funds are siphoned of by a huge network of Govt and Non Govt players ; stretching from gram pradhans, block devp officer to zilla parishad, MLAs, MPs, Babus, NGOs who use these funds as the foundations of their power.
In short, ;
One. High levels of group grievance and a weak rule of law is correlated with terrorism across all countries.
Two. In developing countries, religious or ethnic ruptures, and corruption are more strongly associated with terrorism.
Thus, The sponsorer can easily pick and choose these disgruntled elements which are in plenty in India and use their rage or perceived grievance as its proxy to wage a war against India.
Seven. World Leaders are Shy calling a Spade as Spade. The world has to seriously take a note of this fact that Although all muslims are not terrorists but most of the terrorists are muslims. There is likely to be something in Islam which encourages violence. There are numerous such reports to vindicate this point. In 2013, according to the US Department of State, a total of 9,707 terrorist attacks occurred worldwide, resulting in more than 17,800 deaths and more than 32,500 injuries. In addition, more than 2,990 people were kidnapped or taken hostage. And of these 32 percent, , only three Muslim terrorist groups, namely the Taliban, ISIS and Boko Haram, were responsible for 5,655 fatalities, or for 31.76 percent! And there are almost 50 other muslim terrorist groups that exist which have caused the rest of the fatalities. Many of them like LET, JEM , HM etc are operating in India. The 2020 Report is also along similar lines and highlight the same facts.
This streak of violence is not only amongst illiterate or uneducated Muslims even large number of educated muslims have been found involved in terror activities. Even the British were surprised with the involvement of English educated Muslim migrants in terror activities. India Today 28 AUG 2006 article Young Angry Men revealed that one third of young men supported 7/7 UK Bombings. It said ; What has shocked the Asian community is that the suspects do not fit the classical description of a prospective terrorist-disgruntled youth, growing in dysfunctional families, bred in poverty and plagued by unemployment. Most of these young men came from respectable well-to-do families who were well educated and suitably employed. They were inspired by ideology rather than misled by ruthless political activists. At least eight suspects regularly went to Masjid-e-Umer in Walthamstow.
As usual Newspaper columnists, bloggers and radio listeners obsessively debated the question: How could young Muslim minds be so easily radicalised? Would they ever integrate into British society and become loyal citizens?
However, Muslim leadership continued to remain in denial mode accusing the government, media and Right-wing elements of anti-Muslim attitude. Labour MP Sadiq Khan said, "It is foolish to suggest or even expect us to go around defending government policy that is extremely unpopular in Muslim communities. Now this kind of a response from Muslim leadership is almost predictable now.
We in India also have seen few young educated engineers, IT professionals getting indoctrinated and joining or helping terror group and the Muslim leadership defending them giving numerous reasons.
Some times they blame Babri masjid demolition, some times RSS, USA for anti Muslim policies in Afghansitan or Palestine, Israelis, Myanmmar etc. A few years back, the muslim youngmen protesting against the atrocities commited in Myanmar on Rohingya muslims vandalised the Shahid Smarak in Mumbai. So, when one looks around one finds a pattern to this Muslim grievance everywhere and how their leadership justifies violence and perceptional disgruntlement/ aggrievement.
The recent one has come from Pak PM Imran Khan who justified the Taliban attack in Afghanistan saying ; They have broken the shackles of slavery and many muslim personalities in India have also justified the violence in Afghanistan calling Taliban as Freedom fighters and have rejoiced the take over. None questioned them what kind of freedom is this when Afghans are running away in fear. This also implies that this perception of Islam in danger can be created anywhere and these Liberators then will have the liberty to wage Jehad.
But the world leaders are shy of speaking out for the fear of criticism .
Eight. Therefore, these proxy groups will not restrict themselves to Afghanistan or Pakistan, emboldened by this victory they will spread to other places. They have no plans of building their nation, producing doctors, engineers, building educational institutions and eradicating poverty, all they are interested is in ; Islamic Rule And they are no short of supporters. Pakistan has also drawn its plans and declared its support for Kashmiris in a bid to stir sentiments, so they will keep the Pot simmering and continue to use its proxies.
Even in India many muslim leaders have publicly supported Taliban, Osama Laden and called them their heroes. The foot soldiers are already available.
Now What?
The recent drone attack at IAF Base at Jammu is an indicator what is likely to happen in future. Maulana Arshad Farooqi, Mufti of Deoband supporting the Taliban take over is an indicator how things can unfold. Imran Khans statement that Afghans had finally broken free from slavery."eulogizing Taliban as Freedom fighters is an indicator. All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) secretary Maulana Mahfuz Rahmani and national spokesperson Maulana Sajjad have come out in open support of Taliban praising the organisation for taking over Afghanistan "not with means and resources but belief and faith." He further added, "The victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan proves that wars are won with the help of God and faith and not by strength.” He also appealed to the Indian Govt that it should engage with Taliban to bring peace in South Asia. Mehbooba Mufti's, the erstwhile CM of Kashmir recent statement, warning Indian Govt for returning article 370 while drawing the attention to events in Afghanistan is an indicator how things may unfold in future and which side these Indians and millions of their followers may stand. These leaders are only likely to fan communal tensions and serve as facilitators of violence for their own political interests instead of counselling and advising the muslim youth to shun violence. They are also likely to serve as Proxies of Pakistan's religious war against India.
However, the millions of Afghans escaping from Afghanistan and from Syria have also given a positive signal ; All Muslims do not wish to live under Sharia and they want to live in peace with others. This must help in sidelining the Maulanas and Leaders who wish to use Taliban victory to achieve their political goals . The society as a whole must play its role with a sense of responsibility inorder to deny this ability of Maulans to emerge as a Rallying force of Muslims.
India’s Strategy to Fight the Religious war.
Before formulating the strategy, after having taken into account the quintessential features of this Proxy war as enumerated above, we must take into account following as well ;
One. It is easier to resolve conflicts arising out of misunderstanding, but Conflicts related to Values are the most difficult to be resolved. This is what Huntington emphasised in his Book ; The Clash of Civilizations. So to expect that the India - Pakistan will ever live in peace is next to impossible, Because theirs is a conflict of Values. Indians cherish Freedom of thought and expressions, Secularism , Women rights , Religious freedom whereas Pakistan is a theocratic state where Allah is supreme who has bestowed powers to the people to manage Pakistan as per his directions laid down in Holy Quran. So there can be no meeting ground as such atleast in any foreseeable future.
Secondly, Pakistan’s genesis was on anti India and anti Hindu sentiments and so Pakistan will continue to create discords even if they are none only to justify its own existence.
Thirdly and most importantly, this proxy war has both External and Internal dimensions. The statements issued in support of Taliban by Indian Muslim prominent leaders vindicate this . TO BE CONTINUED.