In 1949, after Chinese took over Tibet and thereafter started claiming more land inside Indian territory the then Indian Govt thought that by waiting and watching and through diplomatic means they will be able to resolve the problem. But it did not happen in that way and finally India suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Chinese in 1962. It took 13 years for that to happen. We are once again waiting and watching the events in Afghanistan.
Our dealings with Pakistan have also been along similar lines. We waited for Pakistan to reciprocate our Good will gestures - signed Indus water sharing treaty, signed Tashkent agreement and returned all captured territory including Hajipir Pass, let them off the hook again by signing Simla agreement and returned PWs, Went dancing to Lahore with a troupe in 1999 and did not go beyond LC and capture important features during Kargil war to guarantee safety of the Leh Highway for ever.
I think we have behaved worse than Prithviraj Chauhan.
Despite all these good will gestures Pakistan relentlessly pursued with devotion - a policy of bleeding and dismembering India. Pakistan is a small country vis a vis India and so India could deploy all the resources at its disposal against Pakistan and defeat them. How long the God can be kind to Indians ?
However the situation has now changed.
One. Pakistan now has a trained force of thousands of battle hardened Jehadis led by Taliban who can cause heavy damage. They may not be good at conventional warfare but their ability to wage guerilla warfare cannot be undermined.
Secondly. No one is interested in Nation Building. Pakistan is not interested in creating a Nation state in Afghanistan, it is interested in having a safe backyard which will provide it a Strategic depth and an armed militant force which can tire India and get them Kashmir.
Third. Back to Square One. After fighting terrorism for more than three decades India is once again back to square one. Because USA and Pakistan are now hell bent to prove that Taliban is not a terror group but a Political party of locals , sons of soil who just want to establish Islamic rule.
It would increasingly become difficult for India to prove once again to the world that Terror is being exported to India. The following vindicate my point; Taliban, USA and Pakistan blaming other grous for the attacks at Kabul airport. Secondly, its been just two weeks since the Taliban captured power in Afghanistan, the United Nations Security Council has dropped a reference to it from a paragraph in its statement that called on Afghan groups not to support terrorists “operating on the territory of any other country”.
India, which is the President of the UNSC for the month of August, signed off on the statement and issued it in its capacity as the chair for this month. This is another signal by the international community that Taliban may no longer be a global outcaste.
Four. It may be matter of time. Inorder to garner leverage over Taliban the West particularly USA may soon start sending funds to Taliban Govt for the economic resurrection of Afghanistan. Biden Govt to save its face will just need some sort of assurance from Taliban that they care for women rights and that Taliban will not support other terror groups to target Americans and Western nations.
Five. Taliban an Asset. Although, while evaluating Taliban’s success it may not be prudent to compare the two situations - as they existed in Afghanistan and the one that exists along LC and IB but at the same time their ability to sneak in and cause damage in conjunction with Pakistan regulars can also not be ruled out. In case of a conventional warfare these terrorists will surely prove to be an asset for Pakistan army, no wonder, that Gen Mussharaf called them as assets.
Will Pakistan employ Taliban in Kashmir ?.
Only naïve will doubt this. Pakistan establishment already has a laundry list ready for Taliban to reciprocate for the military and political support it has extended to them for capturing power. The top most in the list will be Kashmir.
Kashmir is India’s problem and not Biden’s. Any increase in terror in India will once again be attributed to indigenous militants who are unhappy with India which has curbed their democratic rights. How will India prove to the world that they are Afghan Talibanis and even if some are caught the response from Pakistan and Taliban Govt will be - They are Islamic zealots who could not see injustice being meted out to fellow muslims in Kashmir. Remember How Pakistan had justified the move of thousands of Tribals from NWFP to capture Kashmir in 1947 and How it has been justifying the involvement of Pakistanis in Jehad in Kashmir ?.
Moreover, its a question that every nation concerned of its security need to ask ; Can Taliban govern Afghanistan even if they are provided funds? How would they deal with inflation, unemployment problems in Afghanistan ? Are they interested in producing eductaional institutions that will give them Engineers, Doctors and technicians ? Are they interested in setting business enterprises, factories and manufacturing units to provide jobs to millions of Afghans ? If not, then what would these Madrasa educated young men do?
Today, it may sound to be alarmist, but to be one is still better than those who recommended China be called as Competitor and compelled India to display so many goodwill gestures to Pakistan. There is HENCE, a strong probability that these fighters may start appearing on Line of Control and IB to help their muslim brethren in Kashmir. The targets can be numerous.
Why Go So Far ?
After China captured Tibet and started laying claims to Indian territory, the then Govt instead of preparing itself, instead of working out a strategy, instead of preparing its armed forces to deal with the emerging threat , allowed time to pass and relied on diplomacy to sort out the problems.
Why go so far, even few years back many security experts were suggesting that instead of calling China as a rival state it should be treated as a Competitor. There were top ranking Govt officials who went against the army’s recommendations and signed an agreement with China in 1990s terming Line of Control as Line of Actual Control, which is now allowing China to change the Actuality. The army wanted that Line to be called as Line of Existing control so that it could be frozen. There is no accountability and today we are facing the consequences of that decision.
Foreign Minister says India is adopting Wait and Watch Policy
Similarly, this wait and watch policy as enunciated by the Govt recently towards this emerging threat may prove to have disastrous consequences, if it is the same as it was in 1950s against China. Because in this precious time that is available now, we can reorganize ourselves, prepare a strategy, develop leverage over Taliban, create a situation wherein we take the fight away from our land, create intelligence and covert strike capabilities and equip ourselves for such covert capabilities, and be prepared to deal with the inevitable .Someone rightly said ; “Lost time is like a run in a stocking. It always gets worse”.
Once the time is lost, India will find itself in a tight spot and will only be reacting and may even suffer humiliation and the enemy may not be as kind as the Chinese were or We were in 1948, 1965 and 1971.
Do Not Get Into a Shell
This is a war that will sooner or later be thrust upon India, which must be won to prevent the barbarics from taking the mankind to medieval anarchism.
The tactics of fighting them at the LC and IB will not serve the purpose as this enemy will continue the pressure relentlessly as they believe in ; Death by thousand cuts. They took respectively Nine years and 20 years to make Russians and USA leave. It is said ; No defenses can be strong enough to break the will of a determined attacker. Sun Tzu’s advise In this regard is apt ; There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.
Therefore, we should avoid prolonging this war. We should be able to seize the initiative and the war must be fought on their land, we should be the attackers and they must be forced to defend. This can happen only when we create deterrence, leverage, incur on enemy a heavy cost of war not in terms of human lives as that does not matter to him.
In view of the above, India must during this period equip itself whatever it takes which can enable to take the war to enemy’s land.
It is a great opportunity that has come India’s way to prove its leadership in the world affairs. Americans ran away, Russians ran away but India must face this challenge steadfastly with full conviction and destroy these evil forces within and outside.
However, at present, the message we are sending out is one of retreat. This is not a message we can afford to send, when China and Pakistan are bolstering their power in the region, against India. Nor can we afford to have an estranged Taliban which has no deterrence and no fear of punitive action from providing sanctuary to anti-India groups. India needs to build that leverage and that deterrence instead of retreating and getting into a shell and let China and Pakistan gain ground.
A clever enemy is one who imposes his will on the enemy and does not allow enemy’s will to be imposed on him, said SunTzu again, in his famous - Book Art of War.
There can be hundred ways to do that. Pakistan may be having a Laundry list for Taliban but it can rot in its pocket the moment it realizes that Taliban and its allies can swallow a part of Pakistan.
Author. Col N Bhatnagar is an alumnus of NDA, Prestigious Def Services Staff College and XLRI. He served in Indian army as an Infantry Officer in all parts of the country and also in Srilanka and has also worked with Reputed Companies - Power, Hospitality and Health Care sector . He has also worked as a National Assesssor of CII for its CII-EXIM Bank Award and HR Excellence award. He has also authored Three Books.
Disclaimer. The views expressed are of Author.