During the entire course of transition of power in Afghanistan, last month, the two embassies that remained operational were; Chinese and Russian. Pakistan is happy that it has placed a Govt in Kabul whose strings are firmly in its hands. The world may overlook that but for India it means trouble. The ISI has created scores of Jehadi tanzeems (groups) who apparently look to be different but they are all hand in glove and are firmly controlled by ISI. They can be rightly termed as Pakistani deep assets which serve its foreign policy objectives.
China and Pakistan together are likely to fill that vacant space in Afghanistan and also in Central Asia and Russia is also trying to hook on to this congregation.
India is now frantically looking around to salvage the situation as recent developments in Afghanistan impinges on its security. But as a matter of fact it's not only Afghanistan that's a cause of concern but our lackadisical approach towards our security as a whole, which is now troubling us.
Aggressive China a Cause of Concern.
A belligerent China, on the other hand, has now announced new maritime rules in order to control the entry of foreign vessels in what Beijing calls “Chinese territorial waters”. The move is expected to have far-reaching consequences for passage of vessels, both commercial and military, in the disputed South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. It will take effect from 1st September.
Australia and China post covid have got into a trade war wherein China has imposed ban on many items that it imported from Australia.
Srilanka an Indian ocean island has gone into an economic turmoil which is likely to further drive this island nation into Chinese lap.
China is fast catching up as the largest trading partner of Bangladesh and Srilanka replacing India. China is also fast emerging as the major bilateral donor to these countries including Nepal .
China and India are engaged in a tug of war as far as influence in Maldives is concerned which can always shift in favour of China with the change in power in Maldives.
In 2019, Bangladesh gave China access to two of its largest ports—Chittagong and Mongla, China already accounts for around 70% of arms imports between 2010–2019, it has entered into crucial sectors of Bangladesh like communication, defence manufacturing and infrastructure development.
SriLanka has already leased out a sea port to China which is being used by Chinese navy.
Myanmar has already provided China a few ports.
China has consistently shown keen interest in engaging with South Asian countries as it provides them an entry to the Indian Ocean as well as it helps to strategically constrain India.
Russia Redefining its Strategic Interests: Getting Closer to Pakistan
Russia recently did not invite India for a crucial Russia-sponsored meeting to discuss the political situation in Afghanistan, despite decades of strategic and military ties between Moscow and New Delhi. It was attended by Pakistan, China, and the US. Its relationship with Islamabad has remarkably improved leading to high-level visits and arms sales. In April 2018, the two have even set up a Joint Military Commission. The recent geo-political changes have brought the two together. In view of these changes Russia feels that Pakistan is a very important country in the emerging geopolitical situation in this region. Notwithstanding the handicap of perpetual asymmetry vis-à-vis India, Pakistan leverages its geophysical location, strong military with advancing nuclear capability, and considerable influence in the Islamic world. Russia, in view of US withdrawal from Afghanistan is finding new opportunities in South Asia and Pakistan is attempting to influence its geo-economic significance, boosted by the fast-developing China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—touted as a flagship of China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). The lifting of the embargo by Russians a few years ago, was a clear signal to Pakistan and India that a new Russia had emerged, and Moscow was redefining its strategic interests in the changing geopolitics of South Asia. It has also signed a pact for construction of 1,100-km gas pipeline from Karachi to Lahore at an estimated cost of USD 2.5-3 billion by the end of 2023.
India Being Challenged in its own Backyard.
With all this happening in our own backyard it is pertinent to ask the question: Is India not hemmed in from all sides? Is it not left all alone without any reliable ally?
Is the Quad of any help?
In response, to Chinese belligerence, the US continues to build partnerships with other nations that serve as a bulwark against China. One such group is the Quad, comprising of US, Japan, Australia, and India. The meeting of all four Quad-nation heads on 24 Sept at the White House for its first-ever in-person, leader-level gathering is happening at a crucial juncture when the politics of the region has taken a serious turn to India’s disadvantage with the fall of Kabul into the hands of the Taliban.
Although , It was formed in 2007 as four countries— the US, India, Japan and Australia — came together. However, it did not take off initially because till then China was not a factor to fear upon but in 2017 after almost a decade, as China grew belligerent in South China sea and against India at Dokhlam, there was a sudden convergence among countries, thereby increasing significance of the Indo-Pacific region, rising threat perceptions vis-à-vis China among others. From an Indian angle, the rising dominance of China is the new and emerging security concern.
Given the situation that India today finds itself in (in its own backyard) the QUAD is very significant for India.
If India is to assert itself in this Indian Ocean Region and maintain its dominance in the IOR, the QUAD provides India a platform to enhance security through partnership in the region because on its own India does not have the capabilities to contain China.
So, the Quad for India is primarily a platform to seek cooperation from like-minded countries to counter China and its belligerent activities against India. This is especially crucial in present times as relations between India and China have ebbed due to border incursions along Sino-India border at many places.
A few years back perhaps India would have given a cold shoulder to such an alliance. Even the string of pearls did not bother India but it was Dokhlam that woke India from a deep slumber. Till 2017 its decision makers were not accepting China to be an adversary, they were happy calling it a competitor.
Although many countries, after China started pursuing its foreign policy aggressively, are now willing to join the QUAD; even Taiwan is willing to be a part of it. However, the QUAD is neither an alliance, nor it has any collective security obligation but it is more a form of geopolitical assurance.
So what can be the future of the Quad ?
The Quad is an outcome of frustration with Chinese behavior that had reached a pitch where all four countries overcame their past reservations to join hands. The reality is aptly explained in an article titled 'The Quad Finally Delivers; Can it be sustained', published in The Interpreter and later by Brookings.
The author Ms Susan says, But so far, the topics discussed in the Quad grouping have little to do with governance, human rights, or strengthening democracy or the rules-based system, and few believe that like-mindedness on these issues was the decisive factor in pushing India forward at last. Without an alternate rationale for what this particular four-country grouping can do, its salient identity will be as a nakedly anti-China bloc. India in particular will be uncomfortable with this, as was demonstrated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s insistence that that group “stand for something and not just against something”, and by the non-mention of China in the summit’s joint statement. She further adds “This brings us to the final point: if China continues to show its teeth and bully others, the Quad is more likely to be sustained. If, on the other hand, China demonstrates restraint, it will be harder to keep it going.”
Thence, it is quite likely that in future if China, US and Australia settle their problems, Quad may die its own death or else it may get restricted to an annual ritual ; Malabar Naval exercise. The US is not likely to be interested in the local Border issues of India – China.
And India’s predicament is that it wants an alliance which can help putting pressure on China to mend its ways but at the same time fears that it should not be an anti-China block.
So, how does this group enthuse the US, Japan and Australia if it is not anti-China?
Given the manner in which the US retreated from Afghanistan and Biden’s policy of NO BOOTS ON GROUND, it does it not appear that the Quad will have much impact as it is an alliance with No Charter, no clear aims and objectives and a reluctant partner, who comes with a regional baggage/ compulsions.
As a result, the US perhaps has formed a new working group with the UK and Australia. The US President said, "The trio, now known by the acronym AUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems, and long-range strike capabilities".
The joint statement read, “This is about investing in our greatest source of strength, our alliances and updating them to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow”. "We must now take our partnership to a new level,” said Morrison Australian PM and British PM Johnson stated that “we're adding a new chapter in our friendship”.
Obviously, the threat these Nations are contemplating is from China, otherwise what would bring them together to form another alliance?
Is AuKus, therefore, a more cohesive group of more like- minded countries ?
What was the need of creating AUKUS when these members were already part of Quad?
Was it made to accomodate UK also in this region?
Wrong to state that India May Have to Face a Two Front War.
Quad or No Quad, India’s problems will continue because on one hand China is nibbling away its territory feet by feet, it is also assisting belligerent Pakistan (which is waging a proxy war in India), and on the other hand it has already made great inroads in the IOR as well as Arabia Sea as Pakistan has also offered Gwadar Port to them.
We should have woken up long back when perhaps Deng Xiaoping said, It is Indian Ocean and not India’s Ocean.
This is what happens when one sets smaller targets. We were contended with being termed as South Asian power which comprised of nations like Srilanka, Nepal, Mynmmar, Bhutan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and in just a decade plus China has virtually usurped us from our own backyard. We were happy maintaining some superiority over Pakistan forces but look that same sizeable superiority has got largely depleted and we now have to face two rivals on many fronts.
It is once again wrong to state that We may have to face a war on only two fronts rather we may have to face it on many fronts; The Bay of Bengal, The Indian Ocean and in Arabian Sea. Have we forgotten our islands in these Oceans that form part of our country. We have a huge coastline of approx. 7500 kms.
Confusion: Is China Our Enemy or a Competitor.
Another predicament that creates confusion in the decision making while dealing with China is amplified by the example below ;
General Rawat in a lecture recently said, "we are seeing some kind of a jointman ship between the Sinic and Islamic civilisations". You can see China now making friends with Iran, they are moving towards Turkey… And they will step into Afghanistan in the years to come…. Is that going to lead to a clash of civilisations with the Western civilisation?” The world, he said, is in “turmoil”…. General Rawat further said ; “We are heading back to a bipolar or multipolar world… What we are certainly seeing is more aggression on the part of nations. Especially, the one that is trying to go into the bipolar world, and making its presence felt, that is China. They are becoming more and more aggressive and we share land borders with them. Therefore, it is time to start looking at our strategies, as to how we are going to deal with two borders, which are aggressive neighbors, adversaries. Pakistan on the western front and China on the north”.
Whereas, the external affairs minister immediately tweeted ; India does not believe in clash of civilizations , India and China have to deal with each other on merits and establish a relationship based on mutual respect. ….. Asian solidarity would depend on the example set by India-China relations.”
So, what do we take from this ?
Will the armed forces remain confused as ever regarding China: whether it is an enemy or a friend or a Competitor?
It appears prima facie that despite erring many times: First by not preparing ourselves to deal with China threat Post forcible occupation of Tibet, Second, by agreeing to calling Line of Control as Line of Actual Control instead of Line of Existing Control, and then sacrificing troops who were sent unarmed to check whether Chinese have left our territory or not. Fourth, while accepting to disengage recently, withdrawing our forces from features that were captured in retaliation to Chinese encroachment, our policies vis a vis China have by and large remained the same, ever since China occupied Tibet in 1950; non-committal and Ostrich like.
Author. Col N Bhatnagar is an alumnus of NDA, Prestigious Def Services Staff College and XLRI. He served in Indian army as an Infantry Officer in all parts of the country and also in Srilanka and has also worked with Reputed Companies - Power, Hospitality and Health Care sector . He has also worked as a National Assesssor of CII for its CII-EXIM Bank Award and HR Excellence award. He has also authored Three Books.
Disclaimer. The views expressed are of Author.