After the Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics of the Biden administration, Daleep Singh, threatened India with ‘consequences’ for purchasing oil from Russia and setting up an alternate payment mechanism to circumvent US sanctions, it was expected that the tempers would run high.
So, not surprised when few supporters of the current Indian Govt ; The Hindu Sena went over board and defaced the US embassy name plate.
In the previous article; India tying itself in knots, I had just said the same. If the war continues for longer, India, given the stand it has taken, will find itself in a precarious situation. https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-security-concerns-challenges-3/ukraine-crisis-india-tying-itself-in-knots
Although many Foreign ministers of Quad countries and other nations including Russia and China have come and gone but India’s stand has remained unchanged and instead of towing the US line, it has increased its imports of Russian oil.
So, once again its time to ask following questions;
What kind of support would we expect from rest of the world incase a few years from now we face threat from China. Remember China threat has not gone.
On what grounds would we be appealing to the world community then?
What would happen in case in future China and resurgent Pakistan demand execution of UN resolution on Kashmir or jointly carry out a military operation against India?.
On what grounds would we be appealing to the world community then?
Will a poor and pauper Russia be in a position to extend help to India against China?
Do we realize how many border related problems we have with our neighbors.
How do we expect a rule based Indian Ocean region when we ourselves do not support such regimes elsewhere.
All these questions will have to be answered some day and we may find it difficult then to get international support particularly when we have border related disputes with almost all our neighbours ; Kashmir is still one of the most contentious issues lying pending.
These are the questions that are related to Values as well as our Security.
Unfortunately now, it appears that the Supporters of the Govt are dictating the foreign policy of India. It is Russia and Ukraine that are fighting, but far away in India we also stand divided; there are die hard Putin supporters as well as Detractors who feel he is a cruel DICTATOR.
Initially when the conflict started and India abstained itself from UN Voting the action taken by the Govt had to be justified by the party in power. and so A narrative was created that projected Ukraine and USA as villains and Putin as helpless.
The IT Cells of the Govt have done a good job on social media ; they made the Indians to believe that Ukraine is responsible for this war as it wanted to join NATO and Russia had no choice but to fight. Little realizing that in future if China does the same to us on the issue of Quad as Russians have done to Ukraine on the issue of NATO, what would be our stand then. They also fabricated stories like Ukraine voted against India in UN Security Council on the issue of Nuclear tests and on Kashmir.
Hence, the general perception in India is that Russia is a true friend of India and USA, a power seeker that has never helped India. The examples quoted are ;
One. During 1971 when USA tried coercing India by sending its 7th fleet in Bay of Bengal.
Two. US continued supplying sophisticated war machinery to Pakistan which Pakistan repeatedly used against India in wars . 1965 is a sure example of that.
Three. USA did little to isolate Pakistan on the issue of terrorism against India.
Four. It looked the other way when the Pakis were making the nuclear bombs and continued pressurizing India to sign NPT.
These are few incidents that are fresh in public mind and hence it was easier for the supporters of the current government to manipulate the perception of the masses. But the uncomfortable truth is ;
When China attacked India in 1962, Khrushchev the then President of USSR politely declined to extend any support. Khrushchev also suspended the sale of military aircraft to India on the eve of the war to demonstrate Moscow’s impartiality. An editorial in the state-run publication Pravda called the boundary favored by India is a colonial-era imposition. So, USSR, conveniently turned its back on India at this critical juncture, when India needed its help.
And it was the US President Kennedy who sent aircrafts loaded with weapons, ammunition and winter clothing for the armed forces fighting the Chinese army. U.S. planes also flew reconnaissance missions along the border.
If Krushchev’s USSR could not take a firm stand against China, Can we now expect a weak Russia to stand against China? It’s a point to ponder.
Since the 9/11 and also post nuclear tests, India and USA have inched closer towards a strategic relationship and boasted of shared values system as the basis of their relations.
But the fact is, there is little common between India of today and USA. Our idea of Freedom & Equality are different than theirs, the media is coerced and the current Govt and its supporters loath the idea of Values. The current Govt has acquired power with an aim to make India pragmatic, for them Values have no importance in real world.
what needs to be understood is ; It came to power when Pakistan had been bleeding India for many decades and the previous dispensation was found to be indifferent and seen by public as the legacy of Nehru-Gandhi value based foreign policy, which they believe has made India weak and meek. So, the National mood is now about pragmatism and values have no place in the society.
Hence, when the national mood remains firm with Russia, the Govt does not have to bother much with its stand.
Although in the short run gory pragmatism may appeal to the people but finally it’s the Values that decide the destiny of a society. Some one had rightly said ;
Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.”
The Ukraine –Russia war has finally tied India into knots and it is now extremely difficult for India to untangle itself from this sticky situation. The purchase of Oil might make Biden's efforts difficult but it also does not make India's situation any easier.
A very senior Indian diplomat recently commented ;
We are at a crossroad today … We must choose our friends and partners very carefully.”