The speed with which Taliban has occupied territory and important cities one after the other, it has left many bewildered . The way things have unfolded in these few months, it is now amply clear that ;
One. Its an invasion by Pakistan and Pakistan regulars are involved in this like they were involved in 1947-48 when tribals attacked Kashmir at the behest of Pakis.
To capture such huge territory by a force mainly of irregulars that too, after a long war of 20 years in which they were pushed to a corner and many of their leaders eliminated, is just not possible. Instead, we find that Taliban warriors are absolutely fit, organized and rejuvenated. This is only possible when someone must have been keeping the organization over hauled and fighting fit and is backing it to the hilt. Who can be doing this other than Pakistan. No wonder the Vice President of Afghanistan recently said ; Taliban is an alliance of LET, Al Quaeda and Madrasa volunteers who use the ISI trail to infilterate. While explaining as to how Taliban is able to sustain this war , he said ; they sustain it through Pak Army GHQ and ISI supply trail. Without them they will lose in a matter of weeks.
Anyone with common mil knowledge and fought insurgency would understand that such a force of irregulars could not have sustained to this level and carried out this blitzkrieg without a consistent logistic supply in terms of fuel, funds, arms and ammunition, constant supply of trained recruits and leadership.
Two. The way Russians , US and China have held negotiations and turned a blind eye to what Taliban is doing, its clear that they want - Taliban to take over Afghanistan and Pakistan to play the main role in bringing peace to this region.
Although, it may so appear right now that Pakistan is nearing to achieve its strategic objective of occupying Afghanistan but with so many stake holders with different interests and concerns , it is quite likely that Afghanistan may soon become another Syria.
The notion that USA , China and Russia can goad the regional actors towards pre-defined goals in Afghanistan is an illusion. American abandonment of Afghanistan and the promotion of the Taliban by Russia and China will inevitably set in motion a chain of reactions that may spiral out of control . There are too many independent actors in the region with high stakes in Afghanistan. They will surely find ways and means to cope with the EMERGING situation in Afghanistan. India intensifying its efforts with the help of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose interests are threatened by Taliban’s religious extremism, are not going to sit back.
Before it is too late and things spiral out of control and this whole region starts burning we need to answer following;
One. Do the Taliban Leaders and their gun totting cadre, charged up with Islamic zeal have the vision and acumen to administer a country of the size of Afghanistan. If they do not have that vision and skills then what would they do? May be they will do what they are good at.
Two. As these militants grow in confidence after they occupy power in Afghanistan, it is certain that their mentor will use them against India and so Kashmir will surely be the start point. Is our Air force so technologically superior that it can take the war to Pakistan’s main land without any fear of reprisal? And Does India have the capability to wage an equally ferocious proxy war in Pakistan ?
Three. The US withdrawal which is interpreted by the Taliban and other Islamic fundamentalists as their victory is likely to embolden them. This will surely have its implications in India as well. Is India socially geared up to deal with this Islamic upsurge and will it not adversely impact the communal situation?
Four. Russia’s goals in Afghanistan are largely aligned with China and Pakistan and that leaves India with very little influence in a region which is likely to have immense influence on its security. Is India ready to face that challenge ?
Conclusion.
India floundered a golden opportunity to intervene in Afghanistan when Trump was in power, because after having once burnt its fingers in Srilanka India's leadership did not have the political courage to take a risk.
Taliban has close links with almost 20 terror organizations and some of them are already operating in India and have sleeper cells in many Indian cities.
If India has to win this proxy war it needs to enact a unified approach – military, political and economic – to ensure its own peace and to safeguard its interests. There will always be elements in the society who will try and link up this threat to Religion but the Political Leadership must ensure that it is treated as a threat to the Nation.
It is really agonizing that a Nation ( USA) which boasts of valuing human rights and has been preaching around the world to uphold them left Afghans at the mercy of cruel Taliban warriors and wanted Pakistan to play an influencing role in Afghanistan knowing fully well that entire terror machinery is based in Pakistan.
Although, it is not the first time that USA has made such mistakes, after all Osama Bin Laden was also its creations. Notwithstanding the above, it is in India’s interests to once again spear head a movement and garner support for Sanctions against Pakistan. It has to now show to the world that if they are serious about combating terror then Pakistan for far too long has been fooling around on this issue and it can now no more hoodwink the world.