Although South East Asia is becoming a major battle ground for India-China, US- China rivalry, with several small South Asian states been caught up in the strategic competition. However, it appears that USA is fast losing the field to China, not only in South Aisa but also in Central Asia. And the reasons are not difficult to find.
On 25 May Foreign Ministers of ASEAN nations gathered to have their first virtual meeting with Biden’s US Secy of State Bilken but due to some tech glitches it could not take place and thereafter within a week , all of them flew to China, got a red carpet welcome there and got a chance to meet individually with the Chinese foreign minister.
This sums up the whole story ; China is on a mission and Biden is confused with his priorities. Although Biden came with lot of good will and people hoped he would not be as erratic as his predecessor was but it appears he is utterly confused , lacks focus and so the goodwill is fast receding.
This whole region is an important frontline in a new era of geo political competition and A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia wrote James Crabtree, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia. Another analyst Kishore Mabubani wrote that Attempts to Build a New Anti-China Alliance Will Fail , because the Quad is not likely to change the course as all the four nations part of it, have different vulnerabilities and different geo political interests. Secondly, and most importantly, this off and on display of power by conducting military exercises and sending warships to South China sea is not going to deter China anymore.
If the credibility is questionable, it is certain that smaller nations may want to invest their time elsewhere. Like it has bulldozed its policies in Hongkong, occupied islands in South China sea, it may do so in Taiwan as well and the whole world may just keep watching as it did when Hitler’s forces went on a Blitzkrieg, capturing one country after another.
The events in South Asia are taking a dangerous turn which may well have serious security repercussions for the entire region in foreseeable future.
The Taliban are already on a rampage in Afghanistan. They have seized more than 50 districts since May and surrounded five provincial capitals. They have captured Afghanistan’s main border crossing with Tajikistan. Beleaguered Afghan soldiers are surrendering outposts and fleeing to neighboring countries. They have also reportedly captured hundreds of vehicles left behind by US Troops. The latest U.S. intelligence assessment says the Taliban could topple Afghanistan’s government within months.
And amidst this chaos, US President is adamant with the date of withdrawal i.e Sept 11. And he has the cheek to say ; “ He plans to fight terrorism without boots on the ground and so will reorganize the counterterrorism capabilities and the substantial assets in the region to prevent reemergence of terrorists.”
However, without any MILITARY base close to Afghanistan, its counter terrorism capacity will face constraints, and Biden’s assurances could ultimately ring hollow. Imran Khan also sarcastically remarked ; “If the United States couldn’t win the war from inside Afghanistan after 20 years, how would America do it from bases in our country?”
Imran’s statement clealry express the truth - that US withdrawal and resurgence of Taliban is an indication that US has lost the war. This will only embolden those elements in the entire region who support Taliban’s policies.
Even when Ghani and Abdullah met Biden recently there was hardly any assurance. President Biden reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to fully support intra-Afghan negotiations. The U.S. and Afghan leaders firmly agreed that although U.S. troops are leaving Afghanistan, the strong bilateral partnership will continue. This is typically a diplomatic response devoid of any commitment to a beleaguered country and its people who looked up to US for help and succor and who are now left to defend themselves against Taliban’s wrath.
This clearly is an indicator that Washington’s influence in Kabul is rapidly receding. Although it may appear that the United States is a critical player in Afghanistan, especially through its financial assistance and facilitation of the peace process, But the end of its military footprint will surely reduce this leverage drastically.
The other players who may enter the fray are likely to be Pakistan via its proxy Taliban, China via its proxy Pakistan, Turkey, Russia, Iran to some extent. Suddenly Taliban will be catapulted to be in a lead position which will embolden the Jehadis all over the world. You cannot make Jehadis responsible rulers. They will do what they are good at. This will also encourage and vindicate the view of the authors / the proprietors of policy - Death by Thousand cuts, Quranic concept of warfare and so on.
The attack on Indian air force base in Jammu is surely an indication of what is in store for India.
Myanmar, Srilanka, Maldives, Nepal, Bangladesh are all lining up behind mighty China with utter disregard to India’s security concerns leave aside the business concerns. The Chinese firms are all over the subcontinent now. It was surprising to learn that even the Nepalese Army Chief has a soft corner for Chinese.
The inherent inefficiencies of the Indian political establishment have allowed China to take a huge lead which is increasingly becoming difficult to be plugged. But, India is a resilient Nation, it fought the terrorists in Kashmir when Pakistan was a close US ally, so Pakistan and Jehadis will surely burn their fingers if the emboldened Jehadis try any adventure against Bharatam. However, If West continues to look inwards thinking that it has nothing to do with this dirty war, this war will soon reach their mainland, faster than what they have thought.
Besides the security concern the current violence in Afghanistan can also lead to a massive refugee crisis. And once again Pakistan will derive aid from world bodies and misuse those funds in proliferating terrorism.