Till as late as 2019 , whenever a terror strike took place in India, the discussions on media used to be very predictable. Pakistani retired Generals used to warn India of severe repercussions and boasted that in case they are pushed , they will not mind using their nuclear weapons. As a result, Many Indians also used to caution their fellow countrymen saying that - Pakistan is a rogue and irresponsible nation, if pushed to a wall, it may use nuclear weapons against India .
As a result we did nothing for almost 20 years.
Then came Mr Modi, with a rallying cry ; MODI HAI TO MUMKIN HAI. Two strikes against Pakistan one using land force and the other from air , he not only surprised the Pakis but also exposed their BLUFF.
Thereafter, the Pakis never boasted of their nuclear weapons and no arm chair military strategist warned us of Pakistan being irresponsible or crazy or mad.
All of a sudden Pakistan started behaving responsibly.
Perhaps because we had proved to them that we Indians can also become irrational, irresponsible and crazier than them.
This served our purpose as the external enemy now could not take us for granted, as we could do anything.
Putin is also using the same strategy of projecting himself as irrational and in my opinion the world could not catch on and in the bargain he has done so much of damage Not only to Ukraine but also the economies of many other nations.
Theory of Madman.
The madman theory is a political theory that has been commonly associated with Mr Nixon, the US President, when he and hhisadministarion tried to make the leaders of hostile Communist block nations think he was irrational and volatile and could do anything, thus forcing those leaders to avoid provoking the United States, fearing an unpredictable American response.
Nixon utilized the madman strategy in his first term in the Oval Office to solve the problem of the Vietnam War. His aim was to appear to be irrational and unstable, so as to convince Russia that he was moments away from pulling the trigger that would lead to an all-out Nuclear War. If his tactic succeeded, Nixon hoped that Russia would pressure the Vietnamese to capitulating.
Let me explain with an example;
Leader A employs the madman strategy and projects him self to be irrational and unstable. His opponent - Leader B might think that going to war will lead to destruction and much more economic losses. Now, with Leader A acting like a madman, Leader B stands down and talks of peace. This might be because with Leader A being insane, much more damage will be done if war happens. This shows how, in theory, the madman strategy might lead to a position or stance which the mad man wants.
Unfortunately, it did not work for Nixon.
Some have characterized former US President Trump's behavior towards allies and hostile states as an example of madman theory.
An example of madman theory has also been attributed to Putin. In 2015, Martin Hellman, renowned American cryptologist who has applied applied risk analysis to a potential failure of nuclear deterrence, stated that "nuclear weapons are the card that Putin has up his sleeve, and he's using it to get the world to realise that Russia is a superpower, not just a regional power." This use of the madman theory, Hellman argued, was something which the West had not "properly caught on “ .
In 1517, Machiavelli alsohad argued that “ sometimes it is a very wise thing to simulate madness" (Discourses on Livy, book 3, chapter 2).
Another military strategist and a futurist Herman Kahn in his book, Thinking About the Unthinkable, had argued that – to "look a little crazy" might be an effective way to induce an adversary to stand down.
This is a theory which is NOT ONLY USED BY nations in pursuing their foreign policies but also used effectively by anti social elements, criminals and extortionists who often use this tactics of MADMAN.
This strategy of being perceived by opponents as crazy or mad, if employed intelligently, can be beneficial in coercive bargaining, in certain situations .
The perceived madness being helpful in coercive bargaining can be illustrated using the examples of Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Gaddafi, Nixon , Trump and now Putin as to how they resorted to coerced bargaining projecting themselves as ; Crazy and irrational.
Does it really help ?
Some political, military strategists and scholars have been skeptical of madman theory as a strategy for success in bargaining. One study found that madman theory is frequently counterproductive, but to my mind, it can be an asset under certain conditions.
Political scientist Scott Sagan and the historian Jeremi Suri criticized the theory as "ineffective and dangerous," citing the belief that the Soviet leader Brezhnev did not understand what Nixon was trying to communicate, and considering the chance of an accident from the increased movements of U.S. forces.
According to political scientists Samuel Seitz and Caitlin Talmadge, "The historical record, both before Trump’s presidency and during it, demonstrates that madman tactics typically fail to strengthen deterrence or generate bargaining leverage." They cite three main reasons: One. target states fail to receive the message that the "madman" thinks he is sending, Two. Target states do not see the "madman" behavior as credible, and Three. Target states do not give into the "madman" because they believe the threat as the madman’s rhetoric, as the madman is perceived to be unable to make credible assurances of future behavior.
This strategy of being perceived by opponents as crazy or mad, if employed intelligently, can be beneficial in coercive bargaining, in certain situations , both in international arena as well domestic politics.
The perceived madness being helpful in coercive bargaining can be illustrated using the examples of Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Gaddafi, Nixon , Trump, North Korean President, and now Putin as to how they resorted to coerced bargaining, projecting themselves as ; Crazy and irrational.
So,, there is enough evidence that it may succeed in certain situations and may not succeed in some , so a Leader before using this strategy of MADMAN must carefully analyze the situation.
For instance, this strategy worked well against Pakistan but can it work against China ?
All leaders indulge in psy games therefore, we need to look into this ; If it has not worked against China, then why NOT ? and how can we make it work against China.
Can we learn something from Extortionists ? or Can Russia – Ukraine war teach us something as to how Putin is playing this madman strategy and ruined the economies of many nations to get the desired result ?