THE ON GOING WAR AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

Now that India has avoided going against Russia publicly and abstained from voting in UN Security council on the proposal brought by US, its implications will surely be felt on many aspects. However, what would be the intensity of those will only depend on How things unfold in due course of time.

Notwithstanding the above, the following may feel the heat ;

1. Fissures in Quad. When other members of quad ; Japan, USA and Australia have unequivocally criticized Russia’s invasion, India is the only member which has avoided doing this. It must be noted that USA , Japan, Australia have already signed bilateral security agreements leaving India aside. India has also kept itself away from the sanctions imposed on Russia. So, this leaves India alone to face belligerent China both in Indian Ocean and on its land borders. India might be having its own reasons for not criticisng Russia but there is all likelihood that this may result in a rift in Quad. However, things would become clear once the next round of Quad meeting takes. Moreover, we must also need to remember that the members of Quad also need India as much as India needs Quad. 
2. Strategic Relationship with USA. The successive Govts right from the time India conducted nuclear tests nurtured a strategic relationship with US which in recent years brought the two largest democracies closer whose relations traditionally have remained estranged. USA was fast emerging as one of the major suppliers of sophisticated weapons but if this war prolongs and India remains firm with the same stance, it is quite likely that the relations may nose dive.
3. No one can miss a point why Putin called up Mr Modi just a few hours after meeting Pakistan’s PM who was on a Two day Tour to Russia. In recent times Russia and Pakistan are cosing up and Russia has declared that it does not have any inhibitions in supplying weapon systems to Pakistan. They have also signed a few bilateral agreements regarding developing an Oil pipeline. So, Putin has perhaps given clear indication.
4. India’s Make in India Programme may suffer a setback as it cannot become a success unless India has access to better technology. Can China and Russia provide that ?.
5. The sanctions imposed on Russia will have a severe impact on India’s economy, as well. Oil prices can shake up many aspects of our economy.
6. Russia accounts for almost 49% of our arms imports, although it has dropped significantly but over the years this has evolved into joint research , development and production. Thus there are many joint ventures that are underway ; development of stealth frigate, joint production of light utility helicopters, leasing of nuclear submarine, provisioning of 20000 assualt rifles etc , in view of wide array of sanctions imposed by USA , many of these may suffer setback.

Notwithstanding the adverse implications, the manner in which Biden has ditched its partners in recent past , India has realized that USA can never be a credible partner and hence it is better to adopt time tested NEHRUVIAN POLICY ; Strategic autonomy and take an appropriate stance based on NATIONAL INTEREST depending upon as to how things progress . As of now, India must avoid getting sucked into it and insist upon the warring sides to refrain from VIOLENCE and resolve their issues through PEACEFUL NEGOTIATIONS.