Our responses against both our inimical neighbours have been knee jerk and without any long term vision and considerations. They have been purely based on some vague idealistic utopian ideas ;
You can not change your neighbours / One has to learn to live with them/ Avoid behaving like a Big Bully brother / China is not our enemy but just a Competitor/ Peaceful coexistence/ Noninterference in each others affairs/ India has never conquered foreign territories but has won hearts…..
Little realisng that only an economically developed and militarily powerful country can sell its culture, a weak nation can not. (The Clash of Civilisations By Samuel Huntington). Asoka, the Great sold Buddhism to the World when he became the Emperor after the Battle of Kalinga and the Cholas could spread Indian culture to South East Asian nations because they were powerful Kings, and had strong navy.
Stephen Cohen in his book, Emerging Power: India says, “No other country has ever engaged in as lengthy wide ranging and intensive discussions as India did before it crossed various nuclear thresholds. This was when its neighbor with whom it had fought a war had become nuclear in 1967.
It is primarily these reasons as to why India has been taken by surprise repatedly and so often right from 1947, if we do not take the medieval history into account.
and so what happened in Ladakh again is part of the same long saga.
The reasons as to why Bharat decided to pull back from strategic heights that it occupied a few months ago are difficult to be explained.
May be we are still adopting the same old policies of Not antagonsiing our neighbors and so to attain peace we once again Compromised and agreed to withdraw troops from the Strategic heights that we had captured in response to Chinese intrusion into our territory.
Its our defensive mindset , that has compelled our decision makers to turning a blind eye towards Chinnese intrusions and calling it ; PERCEPTIONAL DIFFERENCE. Even if we go back a year ago, our Indian Army Chief described intrusions at Galwan as due to PERCEPTIONAL DIFFERENCE of LAC.
India was very fortunate that the VIOLENT scuffle that took place at Galwan , Luckily for the Govt, gave them some breathing space and honour but none can deny the fact that we WERE taken by surprise by the Chinese last year. Its not all over as yet, the next surprise can come in Sikkim or in Arunachal Pradesh if we do not wake up and do not pay any heed to the advises of army. There has been a long history of casualness with which army recommendations on external threat have been treated by the Govt, largely dictated by the Ministry of External affairs.
So, the Shekatkar committee’s projection five years ago about future conflicts was lightly received by the Govt. This was not only because it called for massive purchases, but primarily because it prescribed more focus on Mountains and LAC ; considered for long time as the domain of Ministry of External affairs, to an extent many say that ; “China threat would be handled by the diplomats.” Even a decade ago, the armed forces had warned of a ‘two-front war’ in which India would have to fight both China and Pakistan. But we did nothing.
In addition, it was once again the Govt of India in 1993 which accepted the Chinese terms and conditions and over looked the advise of Indian army and called it ; line of actual control instead of Line of Existing Control, allowing China to keep altering the ACTUAL CONTROL.
The Indian troops Got us into an Advantageous Position
Notwithstanding the above, and despite the lackadaisical attitudes of successive Govts towards National security, the valiant Indian troops not only thwarted the evil designs of Chinese army but once again placed Indian Govt in an advantageous position by occupying a few strategically important Heights in the Ladakh region, in Aug/September 20, before Chinese army could do so. The ANI report said ; The Chinese Army which was eyeing to sit on those dominating heights and now our troops have an edge over the adversary in those areas, Sources said this action led to using fire arms(claim is that the bullets were fired in air) also on at least three occasions from the northern bank of Pangong to the southern bank of the lake.
As a result of this action, Mr Modi found himself at the same position vis a vis China where Mr Nehru was in 1948 against Pakistan , Shastri in 1965 at Tashkent, Mrs Gandhi against Pakistan in 1972 at Simla ; A position of advantage at the negotiating table, wherein he was under pressure to offer some Face saving solution to the adversary so as to attain peace.
Once again the Lobbyists comprising of few Scholars, Diplomats and Army Generals began to suggest on various forums for the need of a face saving solution for China , inorder to attain peace.
They stated that China resorts to such measures of invading the neighbours only when the Chinese Govt faces problems at home . The 1962 war, the Vietnam war etc came when Chinese Govt was under pressure at home. And as India, under current circumstances cannot afford a war, it must give China a Face saving formula, so as to deescalate the tension. Their suggestion was – China must go back to their original deployment of March/April and thereafter we also move back implying that we also should reciprocate and leave the recently occupied strategic heights. Some of them, including an Ex Chief of Army Staff, started quoting our religious scriptures to justify the suggestion of offering China a Face saving solution.
Those talking about the offer were by and large the same guys who in their lectures and articles had been writing for decades that China is not an enemy country but in a Globalised economy , it should merely be treated as a competitor.
It was this reason that despite having fought a war with China and despite China always helping the powers inimical to us, we kept opening our markets for their products. It is again the same category of people who on earlier occasions went against the suggestion of the Indian army, and agreed to Chinese terms of calling it the LINE OF ACTUAL CONTROL instead of EXISTING LINE OF CONTROL . It was this mistake which allowed China to resort to mischief of nibbling our area inch by inch.
We Gave up the Advantage on Negotiating table
And exactly, as expected, and as his predecessors had acted on previous occasions, Mr Modi succumbed and frittered away the advantage by agreeing to disengage and leave those strategic heights. The Chinese on the other hand following Sun Tzu’s strategy , withdrew, quite likely to come back again at an opportune moment, may be after a few years, when perhaps India might be having a more submissive Government , like it had, when Depsang happened.
The Govt, after having accepted the terms of disengagement, has to now provide answers to following ;
1. Why have we vacated the strategic heights captured in Aug/September
2. What about Depsang? Are Chinese still building up at Depsang? If Yes, then, Why did we not link up the withdrawal of Chinese troops from Depsang to our withdrawal from those strategic heights.
3. Aren’t we willy nilly allowing the Line of Actual Control some kind of a Flexible Line which can be shifted again and again.
Lets move on to Pakistan now.
Last week, after years of escalating tension and strife along the Line of Control, the two sides again agreed to an indefinite cease-fire in the area. Since August 2019, when India revoked the special status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, violations of cease-fires had become common. According to a report presented in the Indian parliament, there were over 5,000 cease-fire violations last year alone.
It’s a known fact in army that Pakistan resorts to firing on Line of Control to push Jehadis into Indian side, under cover of fire.
In that case, why have they agreed to cease fire agreement. once again the reasons are not very difficult to find.
One. This cease fire agreement is never binding and can always be broken whenever Pakistan wants to push the Jehadis. As such, sending the Jehadis, through tunnels made along IB can always meanwhile serve as an alternative.
Two. After having cornered and remaining in Grey List by FATF for almost two years is hurting their economy and international image. No amount of Chinese assistance has helped them to overcome this hurdle.
Three. China's image during Covid Pandemic, has suffered a dent and Pakistan’s economy is also going through difficult times, Pakistan’s rupee has tumbled to hit record low of 164 / US dollar . It has therefore apparently felt that at this criticial juncture, mending relations with India, will help them to tide over this crisis situation ; Economy, Vaccines, removal from Grey list.
In my view when China and Pakistan are celebrating their 70th anniversary of their bilateral relationship, Pakistan as a matter of fact has been systematically, turned into a vassal state of China, these steps of Cease fire agreement and cosing up with India have been perhaps taken at the insistence of China.
India is currently surrounded by neighbors whose Govts are either taking instructions from China or are not willing to anatgonise China. India is not left with any allies next door. There are many incidents to prove this ;
One. Srilanka recently cancelled a 2019 deal with India to develop the East Container Terminal at its Colombo port, claiming domestic pressure.
Two. Nepal Govt laying claim to Indian Territory when the crisis with China in Ladakh was at its peak. Nepal in 2016 had abruptly cancelled all agreements with Indian construction firm Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services Ltd (ILFS) to build a $1 billion expressway project, connecting the Nepalese capital with the southern Terai region near the Indian border.
Three. Imran Khan recently visited Srilanka with a huge entourage of Businessmen, as China, after its Hembantota sea port sunk Srilanka's finances and turned the developing economy into China’s debtor is now finding the going in Srilanka not easy, thought of using Pakistan as its proxy.
Four, Seychelles, an Indian ally, refused India to build a key Assomption island project, whereas its President Ramkalawan warmly welcomed Chinese Foreign minister to Seychelles, calling China ; Generous. The Chinese regime is known to use tourism as a political weapon and has punished countries like Philippines and Palau when their behaviour was not to the liking of China. Coincidentally, for now, Seychelles has been receiving a large number of Chinese tourists. The number of Chinese trourists in this small island have gone up from 500 to 15000 from 2011 to 2016.
Five. The Govt of Maldives terminated Indian project of expanding airport at Male in 2012 and passed it on to Beijing Urban Construction Group Company Limited in 2014.
The role of China in Pakistan is well established now and its no more a hidden fact that Pakistan has virtually become a Chinese vassal, to an extent , a Pakistani General recently accepted that he has been paid by Chinese to crush Baloch movement and Iranian conspiracies against CPEC( China-Pakistan Economic Corridor).
In view of the fact that Cease Fire agreement and Disnegagement compromise, have come about almost simulatneously, it would not be wrong to construe that the agreement has been pushed by others. The back-channel diplomacy was at play was evident from a series of steps that took place before. On February 2, Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa talked about mutual respect and peaceful coexistence and days after that India allowed Pakistan’s PM to use its airspace while visiting Srilanka. The two sides while signing the agreemnet reiterated their commitment to the old cease fire agreemnt of 2003 and the need for peaceful coexistence.
I will not be surprised, if in a few months time India-Pakistan will resume talks, which will go a long way in helping Pakistan to ease situation at home and get out of the Grey List. India on the other hand is not likely to gain anything from all this.
Conclusion.
We already have made numerous goof ups in past ; referring the J&K issue to the UN, declaring cease fire in J&K in 1948, humiliating defeat in 1962, Giving up HajiPir Pass at Tashkent, not settling the J&K issue once for all in 1972, there is a limit to such strategic goof ups.
Disengaging or signing a Peace agreement is not wrong unless it is signed with some strategic objectives to achieve, but if it is signed purely with an aim to buy peace then the past experiences, if at all they are any indicator, in my opinion they are, then such agreements and concessions will never help and can prove to be disastrous, because these discounts have allowed enemy to buy time and it will strike at a more opportune time. And surprisingly, we are allowing him to do so, again and again.
We Indians, even after fighting numerous wars and facing proxy war for last three decades seem to have no strategy to deal with our inimical neighbors, and to project India as a power. We therefore live from crisis to crisis; sometimes China fingers us and sometimes Pakistan, We are Even unable to truly exercise power and influence the behavior of our neighbors, which are being used for anti India activities by China and Pakistan. We are being pushed in from all sides and we have got into a habit of projecting ourselves as an aggrieved nation.