President Biden’s “Over the Horizon” Strategy ; Will it work for US

The US President in order to justify the retreat from Afghanistan declared a New policy of military intervention. He said ; as the terrorism has spread to newer areas and not restricted to only Afghanistan, they can be fought using Over the Horizon capabilities without Boots on ground. This implies for a layman that the US now intends fighting without the help of ground troops using Drones, fighter aircrafts etc.

This US policy is likely to have numerous future implications, not only for USA but also for the rest of the world and so, cannot be just wished away as it has come from the US President, himself.

One. If US proclaims that it will not use Ground troops in any eventuality and will employ only Over the Horizon capabilities, it implies that its allies in South East Asia are likely to be left confused and devoid of any reliable support. What will happen in case China plans to invade Taiwan? What if China in order to push its claims in South China Sea starts taking punitive action against Philippines etc? What if China starts suppressing the legitimate rights and interests of smaller states’ in the South China sea and elsewhere, and forcibly denies their exclusive sovereign rights and jurisdiction in their maritime zones? Leave aside military support, with this proclamation there is now no moral support also left with such small states that are vulnerable to Bullying by China.

Two. Whether, It was Iraq, Syria, Or Afghanistan, US military has used its air force including its UAVs extensively for command, control, communications, int, svl , recce and carried out thousands of drone attacks in Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq , so, is it not pertinent to ask ; Did it incapacitate the Jehadis, the ISIS, the Taliban, Afghanistan and Haqqani network operating in Pakistan or in Syria or in Iraq. In Syria the use of air power only helped the Syrian President Assad.

It may not be wrong to state here that after Osama was eliminated in 2011, it prima facie appears that US thereafter used only its drones and air power to dominate the area instead of using its Ground troops. And this can be substantiated by the fact that US suffered approx 2000 casualties till 2012 and thereafter in next 8 years till 2020 barely 200. This is a huge huge difference clearly indicating that after 2012, USA might have stopped using its Ground troops for area domination and for Ground operations. So this implies that Biden might have just made a formal announcement but it was in vogue since 2012.

As a result, Nine years of respite that Taliban got, were enough to resurrect and reorganize itself and strike with unbelievable speed and capture whole of Afghanistan.

This vindicates the point that over reliance on air power cannot serve the purpose. Yes, the Drones are accurate and are effective and so are able to save precious lives of the soldiers on ground but to over rely on them and believe that they will be able to attack targets and achieve National security objectives is just a myth. A US General said ; Without Boots on ground neither the ground can be captured nor defended.

Three. When Mr Biden says ; “I simply do not believe that the safety and security of USA is enhanced by continuing to deploy troops and spending billions in Afghanistan”. This clearly indicates that he has foregone the traditional US leadership role and is no more concerned about the threat that these terrorists impose on the global peace and harmony. It appears after a gap of almost 85 years the world is getting into an era that had helped emergence of Hitler in mid 1930s. The world powers then fed up of fighting did not bother to the rise of Hitler even when he launched offensive against some European countries and by the time they started reacting Hitler had turned into a monster. Only time can tell who turns into a monster as a result of this indifference now.

Four. Does it really mean that Ground troops will lose their relevance ? The answer is simply No. When cavalry was introduced the military scholars wrote the epitaph of infantry but soon realized that without the support of infantry the cavalry is vulnerable, the same happened with the introduction of Tanks and Airforce. Had US not put the Boots on Ground, they could not have eliminated Osama Bin Laden also. The HUMINT factor is extremely important while fighting a conventional or a non conventional war and that can come only when one has Boots on Ground.

Five. This policy is a problem from the point of view of operations as well as strategy . It makes your enemy so much emboldened to advance their agenda and at the same time leaves your allies in doubt.

Six. As the country’s economy grows it is bound to have an impact on its trade and commerce relations with countries outside, which will further influence its decisions on security of its own trading routes as well as security of many nations with whom it has trading relations. Therefore a country of the size of USA, world's largest economy, having a GDP of 21500.00 Billion US Dollars cannot afford to look inwards and adopt Biden’s policy. It is almost certain that whole lot of terror organizations have now found a safe haven here in Afghanistan after this country of the size of 6,52,860 sqkms has been placed at the disposal of Taliban and its other allies. Whether, one recognizes Taliban or not it would make little difference. As these hundreds of terror organizations operating hand in glove will always find reasons and targets to harm US interests. How many embassies US can shut ? How many commercial ships it can send under Naval protection ?, how many citizens it can stop from touring ?

Seven. This obsession with reliance on air power may cross all moral limits and as a result it may lead to use of air power indiscriminately, resulting loss of life of innocents, for instance in Afghanistan recently few women and children were killed in a Drone attack who were mistaken for ISIS terrorists . This may lead to lot of collateral damage as well.

Lastly, as this Policy announcement has come from the Political Head ; the US President, it will not be easy for future Presidents to overrule this, till another big disaster of the magnitude of 9/11 or Pearl Harbour does not take place. In this sense it would not be wrong to compare Pearl harbour attack with 9/11. So, by looking inwards, US is likely to harm its own interests.

In view of the above, this Biden’s Policy of - No Boots on Ground is likely to cause more harm to US interests than do any good and may further create confusion amongst its allies and friends. US withdrawal might be complete, but can it afford to wind up its interests and if not then what would it do? Rely on its allies, and if allies have a doubt on US policies, then? No one loves to ally with a partner who is a reluctant supporter and does not stand by its friends in the times of crisis.

Therefore this Policy decision may also have an adverse impact on its leadership image that US has enjoyed for last seven decades.

The war in Afghanistan is not over but has thrown up many new challenges. Barry Pavel a senior vice president and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council rightly said ;

United States now has a lot of work to do to shore up its alliances in the wake of the poorly executed withdrawal. This, too, will require new efforts if the United States seeks to navigate this dangerous new era in a way that protects American security and prosperity”.

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Our journey as a modern nation statestarted in 1947 with the historic speech byPandit Jawaharlal Nehru, with 95% illiteracy, barely any industry and transport system, armed forces that were divided due to partition lacking equipment was largely in disarray, if there were guns- then the dial sights were taken away by Pakistanis, making the guns ineffective, if there were files- maps were taken way by Pakistanis, if there were battalions, half the men had gone away to Pakistan and so on.


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