When both Russia and China for their own strategic purposes are investing in Pakistan and Pakistan expecting that Af-Pak region is likely to turn into a Gold mine, how can USA be behind, it will sooner or later be wooing Pakistan. This is perhaps the opinion of establishment in Pakistan about the visit of US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
India Visit
Although US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman who on the last day of her visit to India before moving to Pakistan stated that ; Washington has “no interest” in going back to the days hyphenating India and Pakistan, and that her trip to Islamabad is only for “specific and narrow purpose”, but lets not overlook the fact that its been really long since any US senior official has done so, They have been deliberately avoiding visiting India and Pakistan in tandem.
In order to justify the importance that India holds for USA she insisted on numerous occasions that her Pakistan visit is for a “particular set of reasons” and is not meant to once again rebuild a broader relationship with the country. She also mentioned it very categorically that ;
“We (the US) don’t see ourselves building our broad relationship with Pakistan and we have no interest in returning to the days of a hyphenated India, Pakistan. That’s not where we are, that’s not where we are going to be.”
Change in Stance on Pakistan's soil.
Ostensibly, the Pakistani establishment would not have liked this and so once in Pakistan, as a seasoned Politician cum Diplomat she wrote after meeting the Pakistan Foreign minister;
“ I met Pakistan Foreign minister today and discussed about Afghanistan’s future and long standing US-Pakistan relationship”.
She further emphasised “The United States and Pakistan have a long history of security cooperation and deep personal relationships between our military leaders, both of which are essential components of our counterterrorism efforts," She also assured that there is a possibility that the US President Joe Biden may soon give a call to the Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.
In order to calm down the hardening of stance, The US visiting dignitary while replying to a question about a bill presented in September by 22 Republican senators targeting Pakistan, Sherman said, “We get hundreds of bills; thousands of people are behind them but we are well aware of Pakistan’s concerns and are closely looking at the situation”.
Mariana Baabar the Pakistani journalist while discussing about the visit said : Pakistan has sent a crystal clear message to the US that it was committed to forging a broad-based, long-term and sustainable relationship, anchored in economic cooperation, regional connectivity, and peace in the region.
The Mood in Pakistan is upbeat.
Given the current situation in this region, there is no doubt that Pakistan holds an advantage over India and as a result the feeling in Pakistan is upbeat.
India on the other hand is still facing terrorist attacks in Valley, Afghanistan has been captured by Pakistan- rather gifted by USA, may be as a parting gift for being a long term ally and China fomenting trouble on its Eastern Borders.
The situation in which India finds today is primarily an outcome of the fact that - We seldom think of retaining initiative.
We had seized the initiative Post surgical strikes and also when article 370 was abrogated but we let it go.
And now that we are reacting we must do so with an aim to once again seize the initiative, at the soonest.
India Must Seize the Initiative.
As brought out clearly by Wendy Sherman (on the issue of Bill targeting Pakistan presented by Senators) that thousands of Bills are presented in US parliament, hinting that Biden Govt may blunt the damage and so the Bill is not going to serve any purpose, and Pakistan once again is likely to walk off unscathed as it has been doing all these years ; running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.
India in order to safe guard its own interests, must make sure that Biden who is already facing flak for the disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan and allowing Taliban to capture the whole of Afghanistan, must not be able to grant any concessions to Pakistan. India must deploy all the resources at its disposal to ensure that Biden is compelled to review the Pakistan’s role in the Taliban take over, as demanded in the Bill.
We, in India must not get carried away by the few praises and niceties shared by visiting US dignitaries about the Relationship but instead focus on the deliverables. The same Lady who talked of importance of India, had recently spoken about imposing sanctions on the purchase of S 400 Missile systems that India is likely to get from Russia, She said ; It is dangerous and not in anybody’s security interest.”
As if, its US which will NOW decide what is Good for our security.
The situation as it exists today is ; All the countries are playing with cards close to their chest , keeping all options open.
Even countries like China, Russia , Qatar, Pakistan who have helped Taliban take over have not recognized them. So the point is what are they waiting for ? Even the US despite having faced lot of flak on its Afghanistan policy does not seem to be clear as to where it wants to go from here.
Hence strategy is to meanwhile keep both India and Pakistan happy and wait as to how things unfold.
The Political parties in US might be engaged in accusing each other for this fiasco and they may not be able to chalk out a strategy but they must realize that without Pakistan’s double game in Afghanistan, there was no way Taliban could have revived and gained strength to reoccupy Afghanistan.
At the same time Pakistan feels that US can do little to Pakistan and with Russia and China at its back the entire Af-Pak region is soon going to transform into a trade, transit and economic goldmine and UNCLE SAM will come crawling back because they cannot afford, not to have a toe hold in the region, and for that to happen, they would need Pakistan.
They strongly believe that with China and Russia getting into the game, USA will sooner or later reach out to Pakistan. Therefore, this India-Pakistan visit by Ms Sherman, in tandem, was an attempt to reach out to Pakistan and convey to Pakistan that both are equally important to them.
Conclusion.
Pakistan may appear to be very satisfied with the overall outcome and also be very optimistic about the future but it is missing to see three important aspects;
One. Perhaps it is missing to examine that geo political situation has undergone a drastic change and as USA is now out of Afghanistan it is in a position to dump Pakistan, leaving Counter terrorism to regional players and providing assistance to them and literally squeeze Pakistan.
Two. The investments can come in this region and it can become a gold mine only when there is stability and peace. When Taliban regime is still not being recognized, then even the regional players like Russia and China will be reluctant to put their money in this region. So, without the money coming in Pakistan’s entire Taliban project will be jeopardized.
Three. No Nation or for that matter any geographical region has ever progressed without the availability of appropriate skilled human resource and the requisite Institutions. China and Russia may pump in money and develop roads and bridges, but the moot point is What purpose it is going to serve? Taliban and its allies can not be expected to produce Engineers, technicians, doctors, Managers and create Institutions to derive any benefit from the infrastructure suitably. They can only produce Jehadis. Moreover, after number of Chinese technicians already having got killed in terror attacks many Chinese investors are now reportedly reluctant to throw in money into projects . Pakistanis' dream that Chinese will pitch in atleast to protect their CPEC investments even if there is turmoil in this region may also be far fetched as Chinese are not dumb fools.
So , this happiness and confidence in Pakistan may be short lived . Lets see How Pakistan once again is able to get out of this situation created by them?.