A few years ago, India's External Minister articulated in his book "The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World" that the global order is in a state of transformation. He observed that the world, once predominantly unipolar following the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now displaying clear signs of evolving into a multipolar landscape. China has ascended as the world's second-largest economy and a significant military force, while middle powers such as Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil are assuming influential roles in shaping this new global order.
This transition from unipolarity to multipolarity has generated a fluid and dynamic international geopolitical environment. Even NATO countries have at times diverged from the United States' decisions. Regional powers like India, Japan, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and South Korea have expanded their influence within their respective regions and on the global stage. Numerous associations and groupings, such as BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN, have emerged where the USA's presence is not even as an observer.
In response, the US initiated the QUAD as a countermeasure against China but had to adjust its objectives under pressure from India. More recently, the US faced challenges garnering support for its sanctions against Russia, reflecting a shift in global dynamics.
However, contrary to what India's Foreign Minister wrote ; China's strategy is now focused on securing a position in the global order alongside the USA, potentially creating a bipolar world. Two recent events exemplify this approach:
- The recent BRIC Nations summit in Johannesburg saw China taking centre stage. It successfully advocated for the expansion of the bloc to include six new member countries, namely Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This move strengthens China's position within the group and provides an alternative to Western-dominated forums like the G-20.
- President Xi planning to skip the G20 Summit scheduled in India is also an indicator of China's strategy of distancing from Western-led institutions. This economic bloc has traditionally been dominated by the United States and its allies. China by Skipping the summit and enlarging other groups will thereby not only undermine New Delhi’s efforts to establish itself as a Global player but is also sending signals that China is not willing to play a second fiddle role anymore.
Amidst this power rivalry, smaller nations, as observed in South Asia wherein China and India are jostling for space, countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, often have to resort to balancing act . While India is not a small nation, But China's ambitions for a Bipolar world may place India in a delicate position.