UN Meeting with Taliban Delegation at Doha.

The third session of the  Doha Meetings was hosted and managed by the United Nations, on 30Jun to 01 Jul.

The primary agenda in the initial  Doha meetings was the international community’s engagement with the Taliban. This was crucial due to the Taliban’s acquisition of power through illegitimate and unlawful means, their status as a terrorist group, and numerous human rights violations. Any tolerance towards such a regime posed significant risks, as it emboldens other terrorist groups and also the Taliban to commit further crimes.

However, by the end of first round of Doha meetings , it was felt that without Taliban’s presence, the International community can do little to mitigate the problem. So, in the second round Taliban was invited but it did not participate as they felt that the discussions will be around human rights particularly women rights etc.

So, bringing the Taliban to the table became the primary aim and it needed some balancing acts on the part of international community.

Reporters claimed that during the meeting issues related to human rights and women rights were discussed but to ensure that the talks remain conclusive Pakistan, China , Russia and Iran intervened and did not allow western reps to cross the red line.

An Afghan delegate shared how Rina Amiri, the US Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights, proposed the formation of a special group on human rights, which was opposed by several envoys, including Iran, Pakistan, China and Russia.

In addition the issues related to combating drugs, developing private sector and bossting trade, developing means for livelihood, and lifting sanctions on the Afghan central bank were also discussed.

The Taliban spokes person Zabibullah Mujahid was upbeat on the outcome of talks and said that the talks were held as per the agenda set by Taliban.

One of the main conditions set by Taliban was — that only they represent Afghanistan and no one else — was accepted and the UN did not invite any other Afghan group to the meeting. However, a number of special envoys held a special session with several members of Afghan civil society on July 2 to hear their concerns.

To avoid the impression that it provided the Taliban a global platform and legitimacy despite its human rights violations and support to terrorism, the U.N. has to work with the Taliban government to obtain commitments without compromising on these major issues towards a roadmap for securing human rights, which are not necessarily against Islamic teachings. One of the ways that can be achieved is through involving the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), which also participated in Doha III, to intercede with the Taliban on human rights. 

The Pakistan Govt and Taliban emissaries had a closed-door meeting post talks and nothing much is known about the talks. Surely Pakistan delegation must have raised the issue of Terror havens provided to Teherik e Taliban in Afghanistan.

What is disheartening is that India whose security is closely connected to situation in Afghanistan and had invested in many projects there is not part of Doha talks and Pakistan, China are.

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SCO Meet in Kazakhstan

The 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit was held on 04 Jul in Astana, Kazakhstan .

There are 10 members of SCO including the newly inducted Belarus , three observer states and 14 dialogue partners.

The SCO originated from the "Shanghai Five," formed in 1996, consisting of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

It was created to address concerns about extremist religious groups and ethnic tensions following the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.

SCO was established on 15th June 2001, in Shanghai, adding Uzbekistan as a sixth member.

India became the member of SCO in 2017 along with Pakistan.

The SCO is one of the few international organisations focused on security issues and primarily consists of Asian members. 

Russia and China view it as an alternative to the "Western" international order and are positioning themselves against US influence, alongside the BRICS grouping and seeking to counterbalance US influence.

And within the SCO, Russia and China balance out each other’s influence by including India, Pakistan.

The SCO represents 40% of the world's population, and member countries contribute approximately over USD 23 trillion to global GDP.

 SCO membership allows India to enhance cooperation with Central Asian countries, Facilitates communication with major regional actors on common security issues.

The Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) is an important structure within the SCO which has helped countries like India with intelligence analysis, and sharing information on terrorist movements and drug trafficking.

SCO membership enhances regional engagement, challenges in managing bilateral ties remain, influencing India's participation and stance on initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

India faces challenges in the SCO including balancing ties with China and Russia, ensuring economic benefits, maintaining strategic autonomy, and increasing bilateral trade with SCO countries.

Key Highlights of SCO Summit 2024

The External Affairs Minister delivered the Prime Minister's message highlighting the need to respect each other’s’ sovereignty and territorial integrity, perhaps pointing a finger at China. This is straight from the principles of Panchsheel which have been decried both by Minister of external affairs and PM, Modi.

The 24^th SCO Summit in Astana adopted the Astana Declaration and approved 25 strategic agreements on energy, security, trade, finance, and information security. 

 India’s External Affairs Minister met the Chinese Foreign Minister on the margins of the SCO Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. Both ministers emphasised the need for "complete disengagement" of troops and restoring peace along the  and also to expedite efforts through diplomatic and military channels to resolve remaining issues in Eastern Ladakh.

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Making it Difficult for China to flood EU Market with its Cheap EVs.

The European Union has raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, to protect the bloc's motor industry.

The new tariffs on individual manufactures range from 17.4% to 37.6%, which is in addition to 10% duty that was already in place for all electric cars imported from China.

This could raise the price of EVs across the EU, making them less affordable for European consumers.

The move is also a major blow for Beijing, which is already in a trade war with Washington. The EU is the largest overseas market for China’s EV industry and the country is counting on high-tech products to help revive its flagging economy.

The increased tariffs are not likely to be imposed until later this year.

It is not just Chinese brands that are affected by the move. Western firms that make cars in China have also come under scrutiny by EU.

The EU’s decision may seem to be insignificant compared to a recent US move to raise its total tariffs to 100%, but it could be far more consequential. Chinese EVs are a relatively rare sight on US roads but much more common in the EU.

The number of EVs sold by Chinese brands across the EU rose to almost 8% last year of the total EV market in 2019.

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Red Sea Crisis

Since November, last year the Houthi militias in Yemen have repeatedly attacked cargo ships in the Red Sea, making the vital marine route connecting Asia with Europe through the Suez Canal unsafe. The Cargo ships, as a result are now taking the longer route around Africa’s southern tip through Cape of Good Hope, thereby increasing fuel expenditure, shipment costs and delivery times, further straining global trade already impacted by three directional attack; Pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and a global economic slowdown.

The Red Sea, which caters for 30 per cent of the world’s container traffic, is therefore, undergoing an unprecedented shipping crisis. By the end of March 2024, maritime activity through the Suez Canal and Bab El-Mandeb Strait had decreased by 50 per cent, while navigation via the Cape of Good Hope had doubled.

Ships are re-routing thousands of miles around Africa’s Horn to avoid the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have escalated, including a recent incident where a vessel was sunk by a sea drone.

The crisis has broad implications, not only for the shipping industry but also for the environment and global economy. 

Danish shipping giant Maersk reports that the Red Sea situation is causing widespread industry disruptions. Diversions and higher sailing speeds have led to burning an additional 13.6 million tonnes of fuel since mid-December, equating to the emissions of nine million cars. Maersk has leased 125,000 additional containers to meet capacity needs amidst the crisis. This has also put pressure on the availability of Containers impacting the trade and business of many countries including India, Bangladesh etc. Sabri Aminuddin, Route Development Manager, South Asia remarked “As container availability dwindles, businesses in South Asia may experience delays in shipments, increased freight costs, and potential disruptions to the supply chain. Navigating these challenges will require a strategic and adaptive approach from stakeholders in the shipping sector to mitigate the potential economic repercussions in the coming months.

Even here China is likely to have a last laugh as it is a world leader in exports and manufacturing, and accounts for more than 95% of shipping-container production, according to the Federal Maritime Commission. dominates the Container market.

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Sri Lanka obliges China

India’s neighbouring island nation, Sri Lanka, has decided to lift a ban on the visit of foreign research ships at its ports from 2025. The ban was imposed in 2023 after strong security concerns raised by India and the United States following frequent docking requests from hi-tech Chinese surveillance vessels. The decision was conveyed by Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Ali Sabry. Sabry said his government cannot have different rules for different countries and only block China.

One by one ; Nepal, Bangladesh, Srilanka, Maldives are queuing up behind China.

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Riots erupted in Paris on sunday as thousands of leftists and Rightists clashed following a decisive first-round victory of Leftists over the far-right in snap parliamentary elections. 

Police reinforcements flooded the streets, where clashes broke out between law enforcement and rioters carrying flares. All of this was happening as the Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony was just 25 days away.

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US Firing from India’s Shoulders.

A seven-member US Congress delegation while on a visit to India from 16-20 June 2024 met Dalai Lama at Dharam shala. The bi-partisan delegation was led by Rep. Michael McCaul, Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Committee. This delegation is one of the most high-powered delegations from the US in recent years as Pelosi , the erstwhile Speaker of US Congress who has been at the forefront of challenging Beijing, and had earlier visited Taiwan in August 2022 was also present.

Although the US Delegation claims that the visit was aligned with Washington’s long-standing support for Tibetans and their cultural and religious practices, which have faced repression in China, but as it never happened earlier, one can therefore assume that US is just posturing itself, after a bipartisan bill that was passed this month by the U.S. House of Representatives aiming to push Beijing to hold talks with Tibetan leaders, stalled since 2010, to secure a negotiated agreement on Tibet and spur China to tackle Tibetan aspirations on historical, cultural, religious and linguistic identity.

Beijing as anticipated has already started planning for the appointment of Dalai Lama , after the demise of current Dalai Lama in order to strengthen its control over Tibet,. China’s spokesperson said that it has the right to approve a successor, of Dalai Lama, the current Dalai Lama said only the Tibetan people can make that call, and his successor could be found in India.

It appears that US is firing from India’s shoulders and it should not surprise anyone that this is just a step to arm twist China and the day the US and China sign a trade deal, all these noises of Tibetan rights will fade away and India may have to face the consequences of all this.

Instead of banking on US or west, India must continue to provide open support to Tibetan Govt in exile and should not support ONE CHINA POLICY.

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Mizo CM stands firm

Mizoram chief minister Lalduhoma on 06 Jul displayed his inability to send back forcibly Zo ethnic people from Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). According to an official from the state home department, close to 2,000 Zo ethnic individuals from Bangladesh have sought refuge in Mizoram since 2022. They began seeking sanctuary in November 2022 after the Bangladesh army started its operations against the Kuki-Chin National Army (KNA), an insurgent group.

The Election Commission of Pakistan a few days ago released the official results of the elections held in Pakistan, confirming not only a major political upset but also indicating that Political stability in Pakistan would still remain a distant dream.

The independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), who was not only barred from contesting elections, his party was also banned, won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party has won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own.

The National Assembly of Pakistan has 336 members out of which there are 266 general seats whose members are elected by  first past the post voting system. 70 Seats are reserved, out of which 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for Non-Muslims. The reserved seats are filled by proportional representation, that is based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province. Independents cannot claim reserved seats and will have to either form their own party or else join some party within a few days. Inorder, to form a Govt, a party would need 133 seats.

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI ) was forced to field its candidates as Independents after a controversial Supreme court’s decision that stripped them of their electoral symbol in the run-up to the elections; Khan was also barred from politics for five years following convictions.

However, the election results have shown that Pakistan’s polity is hugely divided — the PTI (Independents) won 93 of 266 contestable seats at the national level, the PML-N 75 seats, the PPP 54 seats and MQM 17 seats, as a result none is near the half way mark. PTI candidates who fought with a handicap are way ahead of PML and PPP is an indicator that had they been allowed to contest elections in a fair manner they would have perhaps beaten the rest hands down.

In view of this setback to the Pakistan military establishment, it was natural that the PML , PPP and other small parties will be huddled up by the army to form a Govt, thus keeping Imran’s party members out of the run.

So, in a surprise move, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz on 13 feb nominated its president Shehbaz Sharif as the prime ministerial candidate of Pakistan instead of the party supremo and three-time PM , Elder brother of Shehbaz – Nawaz Sharif. This was perhaps done , keeping in mind that Nawaz return has not galvanised the voter, as it had won merely 75 seats, and this may also keep the entire opposition together.

Whatso ever the establishment may do to keep Imran out, the wide spread sentiment would surely be that ; those rejected by the people are being allowed through rigging to form the Govt.

Imran Khan led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's Central Information Secretary Raoof Hasan said that Imran's "mandate has been stolen in the dark of the night, This is striking at the very essence of democratic principles and norms. Forces of dark must be stopped and power must pass on to those whom people have chosen as their leaders”.

Already there are wide spread protests in Balochistan against the outcome of results, and have demanded that the blockade would continue until the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) ordered a recount in all those constituencies where massive alleged rigging has taken place in the province.

Days Ahead.

Even if the PML-N, PPP and others are able to form a coalition government in Islamabad, with the help of army, the PTI will still be in a strong position to disrupt its functioning; through street protests, court cases challenging the electoral results and inside the parliament with its sizable presence, inside. The army establishment will surely try its best to check the PTI’s agitational politics in order to help the coalition Govt to function.

However, in my opinion this time, it will be very difficult for military to contain PTI. The military has already done what it could do; they tried killing Imran, they barred him and his party from contesting elections, they threatened his party members, but even then, they have not succeeded in destroying him.

This time the establishment lacks not only the popular mandate, but also doesn’t have the clarity on responsibilities within the coalition government and the establishment. It would surely not be an easy task for the military establishment to find a political solution to limit the deep anger of the PTI’s large base of support.

In the last few months, due to the IMF bailout package Pakistan has been able to find some economic stability, this is likely to end in March, and in order to ensure that this stability remains, Pakistan Govt has to take certain steps to manage $25-$30 billion of annual external debt obligations. 

Therefore, it is likely that army may concede some space and release Imran Khan in order to contain protests against the new political order.

Notwithstanding the above, Pakistan is likely to continue to witness political wrangling, machinations and instability in the near term, The Pak army is stuck with lots of arrows stuck all around its body now, which is Good for India ; An unstable Pakistan is Good for India's security.

A few years ago, India's External Minister articulated in his book "The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World" that the global order is in a state of transformation. He observed that the world, once predominantly unipolar following the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now displaying clear signs of evolving into a multipolar landscape. China has ascended as the world's second-largest economy and a significant military force, while middle powers such as Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil are assuming influential roles in shaping this new global order.

This transition from unipolarity to multipolarity has generated a fluid and dynamic international geopolitical environment. Even NATO countries have at times diverged from the United States' decisions. Regional powers like India, Japan, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and South Korea have expanded their influence within their respective regions and on the global stage. Numerous associations and groupings, such as BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN, have emerged where the USA's presence is not even as an observer.

In response, the US initiated the QUAD as a countermeasure against China but had to adjust its objectives under pressure from India. More recently, the US faced challenges garnering support for its sanctions against Russia, reflecting a shift in global dynamics.

However, contrary to what India's Foreign Minister wrote ; China's strategy is now focused on securing a position in the global order alongside the USA, potentially creating a bipolar world. Two recent events exemplify this approach:

1. The recent BRIC Nations summit in Johannesburg saw China taking centre stage. It successfully advocated for the expansion of the bloc to include six new member countries, namely Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This move strengthens China's position within the group and provides an alternative to Western-dominated forums like the G-20.
2. President Xi planning to skip the G20 Summit scheduled in India is also an indicator of China's strategy of distancing from Western-led institutions. This economic bloc has traditionally been dominated by the United States and its allies. China by Skipping the summit and enlarging other groups will thereby not only undermine New Delhi’s efforts to establish itself as a Global player but is also sending signals that China is not willing to play a second fiddle role anymore.

Amidst this power rivalry, smaller nations, as observed in South Asia wherein China and India are jostling for space, countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, often have to resort to balancing act . While India is not a small nation, But China's ambitions for a Bipolar world may place India in a delicate position.

When the Chief of Russia’s mercenary group, that is fighting in Ukraine and comprising of retired soldiers from elite regiments of Russia’s army in an audio message challenged Putin,it reminded me of an old adage ; Snake biting its own tale.

The Chief of the mercenary group called Wagner Group officialy called PMC Wagner that was nurtured by Putin himself said ;

“We are going onwards and we will go to the end. We will destroy everything that stands in our way."

This is perhaps the most audacious challenge to President Vladimir Putin since the start of the offensive in Ukraine last year.

The issue at hand is not what Wagner group can achieve or can not achieve, but more important is the lesson that it carries particularly for our own Rightists in India who have been eulogising Putin as he appeared to have been aspiring for what the rightists back home in India dream ; Akhand USSR and Akhand Bharat respectively.

Coincidentally , Savarkar was an admirer of Hitler and Mussolini and so it was not surprising that the Savarkars’ followers admired Putin.

Putin and the Indian rightists have the same Dreams.

Like any seasoned dictator Putin’s main goals were;

One, He wanted to maintain his Absolute power and this he achieved by bringing constitutional amendments.

Two. He wanted Russia to regain the status that the Soviet Union lost with the end of the Cold War. So, he and his supporters propagated that he’s the only person capable to achieve this grandiose aim.

This is exactly what Mr Modi and his supporters are trying to achieve. They are also selling this dream of Akhand Bharat right upto Gandhar. They have now even placed the Akhand Bharat mural in the New Parliament building , at the cost of irking the neighbours ; Nepal and Pakistan.

Sadly, the gullible Russians believed in this idea and this propelled Putin to invade Ukraine.

The Dream Becoming a Nightmare.

Despite a long war extending to more than a year , Putin’s forces could not capture Ukraine and in the bargain lost thousands of soldiers , lost few generals, its flagship Moscova had sunk and its economy crippled due to sanctions.

The Dream of capturing Ukraine which looked distant a year ago has now turned into a Nightmare, wherein Russians may now be fighting their own countrymen.

Putin now has very little to show to its people, rather he has brought misery to his people.

Its interesting to go through what Dan Slater, professor of political science at the University of Michigan had said; “At least for now, Putin is ushering in every outcome that he wanted to avoid;

• He hasn’t divided NATO; he’s rather united NATO.
• He hasn’t made NATO move away from enlargement; he’s made NATO more likely to enlarge.
• He hasn’t reduced the street protests against him—in both Ukraine and Russia—he has increased street protests.and now even his own darling force, nurtured by him ; The Wagner Group has revolted against him
• He hasn’t helped the Russian economy; he’s devastating the Russian economy.
• He hasn’t made Russia a more respected player globally; he’s made it a rogue state in the world.
• Literally, everything Putin wanted to accomplish, right now he’s achieving the opposite”.

Lessons from History.

Mussolini wanted “Akhand Italy” ; To regain the lost status of Great Roman empire that extended beyond Italy,

Hitler wanted Akhand Germany – that included many other independent Nations (Austria, parts of Poland etc) , Putin wanted Akhand USSR –  includes many independent nations that broke away in 1991 and now our own Govt wants Akhand Bharat.

The consequences are right in front of us, its now for the people to take a call. I am of the opinion that such dreams are UNREALISTIC and are sold by the Autocrats and Dictators to dupe the masses and lead them to misery. History is full of such examples that - whenever a Nation tried pursuing these unrealistic dreams it destroys itself and brings misery to its own people.

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