The Election Commission of Pakistan a few days ago released the official results of the elections held in Pakistan, confirming not only a major political upset but also indicating that Political stability in Pakistan would still remain a distant dream.
The independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), who was not only barred from contesting elections, his party was also banned, won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party has won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own.
The National Assembly of Pakistan has 336 members out of which there are 266 general seats whose members are elected by first past the post voting system. 70 Seats are reserved, out of which 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for Non-Muslims. The reserved seats are filled by proportional representation, that is based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province. Independents cannot claim reserved seats and will have to either form their own party or else join some party within a few days. Inorder, to form a Govt, a party would need 133 seats.
Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI ) was forced to field its candidates as Independents after a controversial Supreme court’s decision that stripped them of their electoral symbol in the run-up to the elections; Khan was also barred from politics for five years following convictions.
However, the election results have shown that Pakistan’s polity is hugely divided — the PTI (Independents) won 93 of 266 contestable seats at the national level, the PML-N 75 seats, the PPP 54 seats and MQM 17 seats, as a result none is near the half way mark. PTI candidates who fought with a handicap are way ahead of PML and PPP is an indicator that had they been allowed to contest elections in a fair manner they would have perhaps beaten the rest hands down.
In view of this setback to the Pakistan military establishment, it was natural that the PML , PPP and other small parties will be huddled up by the army to form a Govt, thus keeping Imran’s party members out of the run.
So, in a surprise move, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz on 13 feb nominated its president Shehbaz Sharif as the prime ministerial candidate of Pakistan instead of the party supremo and three-time PM , Elder brother of Shehbaz – Nawaz Sharif. This was perhaps done , keeping in mind that Nawaz return has not galvanised the voter, as it had won merely 75 seats, and this may also keep the entire opposition together.
Whatso ever the establishment may do to keep Imran out, the wide spread sentiment would surely be that ; those rejected by the people are being allowed through rigging to form the Govt.
Imran Khan led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's Central Information Secretary Raoof Hasan said that Imran's "mandate has been stolen in the dark of the night, This is striking at the very essence of democratic principles and norms. Forces of dark must be stopped and power must pass on to those whom people have chosen as their leaders”.
Already there are wide spread protests in Balochistan against the outcome of results, and have demanded that the blockade would continue until the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) ordered a recount in all those constituencies where massive alleged rigging has taken place in the province.
Days Ahead.
Even if the PML-N, PPP and others are able to form a coalition government in Islamabad, with the help of army, the PTI will still be in a strong position to disrupt its functioning; through street protests, court cases challenging the electoral results and inside the parliament with its sizable presence, inside. The army establishment will surely try its best to check the PTI’s agitational politics in order to help the coalition Govt to function.
However, in my opinion this time, it will be very difficult for military to contain PTI. The military has already done what it could do; they tried killing Imran, they barred him and his party from contesting elections, they threatened his party members, but even then, they have not succeeded in destroying him.
This time the establishment lacks not only the popular mandate, but also doesn’t have the clarity on responsibilities within the coalition government and the establishment. It would surely not be an easy task for the military establishment to find a political solution to limit the deep anger of the PTI’s large base of support.
In the last few months, due to the IMF bailout package Pakistan has been able to find some economic stability, this is likely to end in March, and in order to ensure that this stability remains, Pakistan Govt has to take certain steps to manage $25-$30 billion of annual external debt obligations.
Therefore, it is likely that army may concede some space and release Imran Khan in order to contain protests against the new political order.
Notwithstanding the above, Pakistan is likely to continue to witness political wrangling, machinations and instability in the near term, The Pak army is stuck with lots of arrows stuck all around its body now, which is Good for India ; An unstable Pakistan is Good for India's security.