EVERY WHERE in the country, on 26 Jul Kargil Vijay Diwas was celebrated, we remembered the young heroes who had fought gallantly and made the supreme sacrifice. And why not they deserve this RESPECT AND HONOUR, THEY HAVE EARNED IT.

But today I am going to dwell on a serious issue now.

For a student of Military history, if we leave aside 1947-48 , we were taken by surprise in 1962 by Chinese and they took away a sizeable chunk, in 1965 once again Pakistan took us by surprise both in Gujarat as well as in Kashmir by sending hundreds of infiltrators, thereafter we were taken by surprise by the civil uprising in Kashmir wherein hundreds of civilians were on streets shouting their lungs out azadi azadi, thereafter started a long saga of surprises, then came Kargil where once again Pakistan took us by surprise, and then came Ladakh in 2020-21 when once again Chinese took us by surprise and Galwan happened.

For more on this Listen to video ; https://youtu.be/iW99m7U5wHY?si=T0QxdQPndux4qOOi

In the pursuit of grabbing headlines on social media, governing with a hypernationalistic agenda can have far-reaching consequences, as exemplified by the recent events , India- Maldives.

The strategic importance of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean has turned it into a battleground for influence between India and China, leading to a dangerous situation with potential repercussions on not only India- Maldives relations but in entire South Asia.

The geostrategic significance of the Maldives has fueled a power struggle between India and China, both vying for a foothold in the region. India has traditionally enjoyed cordial relations with the Island nation, having thwarted a coup in the Maldives in 1989. The political landscape saw former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih maintaining close ties with India, while the current President, Muizzu, found favor with China. Solih's opponent, Male Mayor Mohamed Muizzu ( current President) signalled a shift towards China, raising concerns about the possibility of anti-India sentiment gaining traction.

The anti-India campaign in Maldives gained momentum unexpectedly, with a targeted disruption during an International Day of Yoga event organized by the Indian High Commission in 2022. This orchestrated incident, reportedly supported by hardliner groups and the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), provided Muizzu with an opportunity to exploit anti-India sentiments in the run-up to the crucial elections in September 2023.

Parallelisms can be drawn to domestic issues, such as the rise of hardline elements supporting leaders like Mr. Modi in India. Muizzu capitalized on an 'Indian Out Campaign,' advocating for the removal of Indian troops from Maldives, a sentiment that resonated with certain factions in the country. China, recognizing an opening, seized the opportunity to advance its interests through infrastructure and connectivity projects.

Political posturing in India, particularly related to the Lakshadweep islands, became a target for criticism in the Maldives. This, in turn, led to calls for boycotting the Maldives by Indian celebrities and travel companies, exacerbating the diplomatic rift. So, the fallout extended beyond politics, affecting tourism ties between India and the Maldives

The Maldives controversy coincided with President Muizzu's visit to China, emphasizing the delicate diplomatic balance at play. The situation underscores several crucial points:

1. Hypernationalism's Pitfalls: Excessive nationalism, particularly that is based on RELIGION, whether in India or the Maldives, does not serve the interests of any nation ; both within and outside. It can lead to tensions and conflicts detrimental to all parties involved.In this case, it is China’s gain. 
2. The Domino Effect: Newton's third law applies not only to physical objects but also to politics ; Within and International. Hyper nationalism in one country triggers reactions elsewhere, as witnessed in the strained relations between India and the Maldives. Mr Modi's visit to Bangladesh few years back had lead to desecration of Hindu temples there.
3. Secularism as Strength: India's strength lies in its secular values, not religious fundamentalism. A departure from secularism could lead to internal as well as External challenges and diminish India's influence in the South Asian region. SAARC is already dead now. What is happening within the country today is getting telecasted allover and that is likely to have Newton's effect.
4. Government's Role: The government's focus on social media optics over substantive governance, is a cause of concern, as highlighted by Arun Shourie. He had said - "Indian Govt is increasingly not acting like a Govt but A WhatsApp Group", . The undue concern over perception management on whats app is like a media channel being concerned about its TRP. A more measured and strategic approach is essential to navigate complex international relations.

In conclusion, the Maldives incident serves as a cautionary tale against the perils of hypernationalism, emphasizing the need for countries to pursue balanced and diplomatic approaches to foster stable international relations.

The Army, in a post on X on Friday, conveyed its deepest condolences over the demise of Naib Subedar Giriraj Prasad Yadav. It stated, “A Naib Subedar of the Indian Army has made the supreme sacrifice in the bona fide line of duty within the operational area of the Dibang Sector of Arunachal Pradesh. General Manoj Pande, #COAS, and All Ranks of #IndianArmy salute the supreme sacrifice of Naib Subedar Giriraj Prasad Yadav, who laid down his life in the line of duty in #Dibang Sector, and offer deepest condolences to the bereaved family.”

However, the precise cause of his death remains undisclosed. It's notable that when the Army attributes a sacrifice to the "bona fide line of duty" in a specific operational area like the Dibang Sector of Arunachal Pradesh, it typically implies enemy action. Otherwise, if it were an accident, the Army would have surely provided clarification. This lack of transparency not only fails to serve the nation but also risks demoralizing both the soldiers and their families by not adequately recognizing their sacrifices.

Naib Subedar Yadav's sacrifice is just one example among many instances where crucial information has been withheld. Earlier this year, during an award ceremony at the Western Command, known as the investiture ceremony, deeds between September 2021 and November 2022 were honored. These actions, following the Galwan incident, hint at border skirmishes, as evidenced by citations indicating attacks on Indian Army posts by the Chinese. However, such information was swiftly removed from social media platforms by Army authorities.

Despite China's public assertions regarding parts of Arunachal Pradesh and physical confrontations with Indian soldiers, detailed accounts have not been made public. While the bravery and steadfastness of Indian Army troops are commendable, it's imperative that such actions are communicated transparently to the nation.

Since the Galwan incident in 2020, numerous meetings between the two sides have occurred, yet the nature of these negotiations remains unclear, as to what are we negotiating, particularly when PM himself in an all-party meeting in 2020, said “no one had ever entered Indian territory and there was no one inside.” is surely not understood.

 Statements from various government officials offer conflicting perspectives, while the Foreign Minister characterizes relations as abnormal, and the Chief of Army Staff describes the situation as stable but sensitive.

It has been reported that a research paper was tabled at the annual Director Generals of Police Conference organised by the Intelligence Bureau, by a police officer, which indicated that we may have lost access to 26 out of the 65 Patrolling Points on the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. The paper obviously was not discussed at the conference, which was  attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah and the government made sure the paper was taken off the web site.

The overarching concern is straightforward: if the Govt is hiding information just to preserve its own MACHO image then my fear is that this will further embolden the enemy, because When the enemy knows that you are hiding information from your own people, He squeezes you further and all this shall back fire.

Transparency is not just a matter of accountability; it's essential for national security and stability because it prevents own people falling prey to enemy's psy ops (propaganda machine). However, the more one hides the more harm it causes to its own force.

Did Lal Bahadur Shastri hid information in 1965 when hundreds of Pakistani troops had infilterated into Indian territory. Did Nehru hid information when Chinese troops were ingressing into India's territory in 60s. Do we not know how brutally we punished Chinese in 1967 at Nathu La, Did Mrs Gandhi hid information. 

The security experts, world over have been trying to decipher and analyse the lessons that one can draw from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Almost 150 years ago the great German statesman Bismarck had remarked, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise learns from the mistakes of others.” 

So in that sense, General Naravane, the erstwhile Chief of Army Staff was right, when he said;

“We should be ready for a Conventional war and learn lessons from the Ukraine war”.

He had said this because many security experts have been advocating for decades that the current geo political situation does not allow a conventional war to take place and even if it takes place, it will be short and intense. The invasion by Russia has brought back the reality of conventional war. Hence this war waged by Russia has finally changed the mindset; It is Conventional and it is not short.

Notwithstanding the above, we can only be ready and prepare ourselves provided we derive right lessons from this ongoing Russia – Ukraine war and execute them.

We live with Dangerous Neighbours and We are alone. At no stage we must forget that we have two rogue nations as neighbours to deal with. Though war is the last option adopted by Nations when all other measures have failed to achieve the Foreign policy objective but it still remains a potent option for a rogue state/ ruler and this fact must never be lost sight of that we have two such states adjoining us. We must also keep in mind and keep ourselves ready for Pakistan is not likely to remain weak forever and we may in future have to face a resurgent Pakistan.

No other country or Alliance will come to our help if we are attacked. Yes, they may provide us weapon systems and financial help and also impose sanctions on the invader but that also depends on many factors. For instance, if China attacks India, China may not face the same kind of stringent sanctions as Russia is facing now.

So, if the invader has done his homework well and insulated his economy from initial shock, the current geo – political situation emboldens rogue nations to take such steps as has been taken by Russia.

Wars are not fought on battlefield today with few sq kms of frontage. Even urban areas, thousands of Kms in depth can face destruction, and now with technological advancement the wars are fought at various domains including psychological and cyber domain. If India has to face a conventional war now it will not be restricted to only border areas, unlike it happened in 1962, 1965, 1971 and in Kargil war. Now, even our cities, hospitals, schools located thousands of kms away from Border can be targeted and can come under enemy’s fire. Hence, besides being geared up administratively to control the destruction and sufferings in depth areas, we need to make our entire administrative set up strong enough to sustain itself against cyber-attack. Modern societies are hugely dependent on computer systems and the internet to manage the infrastructure that supports urban centres. A major cyber-attack can paralyse the whole administration and can cause great harm to a nation's security and capacity to defend itself.

Become a Porcupine. In view of the fact that wars today are fought in various domains, it is important for a country like India which has two rogue nations to deal with to become like a Porcupine.

The porcupines are basically rodents weighing barely 7 kgs are armed with spines or quills which protect them from predators. The quills, or spines, are almost 30,000 in number that are embedded in cluster in his skin. Although a single spike may not appear to be sharp but together in a cluster, they are so sharp that they get embedded in an attacker.

Hence, we may not be able to fill the Quality and Quantity gap with China any time sooner, but can surely integrate our resources like the Ukrainians have done and inflicted heavy losses on Putin’s forces. The Ukrainians because of the integration of surveillance systems, hand held anti-tank and anti-air craft weapon systems have been able to deter superior air force and powerful armoured columns. One Ukrainian soldier reportedly commented “If Russians have more tanks, we have more anti-tank weapons”.

They have shown how a small force, if appropriately employed and equipped with hand held weapon systems can still stop the powerful invader.

Therefore, taking a cue from Ukrainians, we can meanwhile attempt to become a PORCUPINE, develop spines/ quills in cluster; focusing on Quantity/ Numbers, integrating our surveillance systems, integrating our hand-held anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems and achieving ability to employ hard hitting mobile teams, developing teams for waging cyber-attack on enemy systems rather than merely focusing on Quality of weapon systems, this can happen in due course of time.

Once we develop these spines or quills and are able to deploy them in clusters, we can deter these two predators effectively.

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