If Gorbachev’s Perestroika and Glasnost were to be blamed for the breakup of USSR, then Putin’s obsession is likely to lead Russians to a greater disaster.

Putin, since acquiring power amended the constitution that made him a virtual dictator. He systematically created an image of a super man; not only in Russia but even in  India , he had supporters.

Like any seasoned dictator Putin’s main goals were;

One, he wants to maintain his Absolute power.

Two. He wanted Russia to regain the status that the Soviet Union lost with the end of the Cold War.

So, he and his supporters probably felt and propagated that he’s the only person capable to achieve this grandiose aim.

Such leaders are often surrounded by sycophants who don’t have the courage to provide correct professional advice.

So, This dream of regaining the lost status was sold to the masses like few Indian politicians sell the idea of Akhand Bharat right upto Gandhar.

Sadly, the gullible people believed in this idea and this propelled Russia to invade Ukraine.

Dream Still Distant.

However, the dream of capturing Ukraine is still, as far as it was, when Putin’s forces started the campaign 45 days ago.

In these 45 days Russians have lost thousands of soldiers , lost few generals, its flagship Moscova has sunk and with crippling economic sanctions, Putin has very little to show to its people, rather he has brought misery to his people.

Dan Slater, professor of political science at the University of Michigan says; “At least for now, Putin is ushering in every outcome that he wanted to avoid;

He hasn’t divided NATO; he’s rather united NATO.

He hasn’t made NATO move away from enlargement; he’s made NATO more likely to enlarge.

He hasn’t reduced the street protests against him—in both Ukraine and Russia—he has increased street protests.

He hasn’t helped the Russian economy; he’s devastating the Russian economy.

He hasn’t made Russia a more respected player globally; he’s made it a rogue state in the world.

Literally, everything Putin wanted to accomplish, right now he’s achieving the opposite”.

Professor further says; “Dictators come in all shapes and sizes. Some come from ruling parties, some come from a military background, some come from the world of business and entertainment. Some are charismatic and some are not charismatic. In Putin’s case, we’re looking at a dictator whose roots are deep within the security sector, the state apparatus. His vision of the world is based on a worldview internal to the Russian State. His perception seems to be that whatever makes the Russian State great is the proper thing to be done, no matter the human cost “.

Indicators from History

If we look into the history of the nations we would notice that all such leaders who tried selling this idea of regaining the lost status; Greater Germany (The Third Reich)by Hitler, Great Roman Empire by Mussolini, Great Soviet Union by Putin and tried changing the maps have only brought disaster to their people.

But masses are gullible, they tend to become Emotional and do not learn from History. They continue to remain irrational and firm belief that their popular leader is very powerful, will demolish the world order and regain the lost glory of their country.

So with hardly anything to show, how would Putin retain power ?

One, Now that he has been pushed to a wall, he may use weapons of mass destruction; chemical or nuclear to achieve his objectives. But that will only precipitate his problems and bring more misery to his own people. So, most likely is that he will keep using this as a Threat. 

Two. He carries out reckless bombings in cities and towns killing civilians inorder to intimidate civilians and carve out a territory or a Corridor within Ukraine to show its people that his objectives have been met.

The Gullible masses need to be careful as they often get carried away by the grandiose aims of these dictators who ultimately lead them to misery.

We had just yesterday, Mr Mohan Bhagwat, RSS leader trying selling the similar idea of AKHAND BHARAT, this time he has gone further and included Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Srilanka, Tibet and has even given the time line – 15 years from now for the creation of AKHAND BHARAT. .

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Friday met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken here ahead of a crucial meeting of Quad foreign ministers and reviewed the bilateral ties, saying progress in different domains of Indo-US relations was positive.

We in India have a tendency to look down upon and mock at everything that originates from Pakistan and have a stereotyped image of it , as depicted above.

However, We are least qualified to be mocking at it because India does not have a National security Policy as yet, despite having faced numerous wars and separatist movements all over the country. As a result we have been resorting to adhocism when it comes to responding to various security challenges that the Nation has been / is facing.

The polity in subcontinent, by nature, is status quoist , that includes even Pakistan. It carries out reforms only when it faces a crisis. India carried out few military reforms after facing a humiliating defeat in 1962, thereafter Post Kargil and it started its economic reforms in 1991 when it became bankrupt.

So, given the fact that Pakistan has achieved this feat and announced its Security Policy, it should be studied carefully and critically examined. If we do not do so, Pakistan is one enemy which if succeeds, will not give us a SECOND CHANCE and an opportunity to reform.

Salient aspects of Pakistan’s Security Policy and What Pakistan’s Big wigs spoke.

1. New National Security Policy would act as an umbrella document, to be used as a guideline for Pakistan`s foreign, international and defence related policies.
2. The Policy document is meant for a period of five years from 2022 – 2026 but will be reviewed every year. PM Khan is projecting this Policy document as the country’s first ever strategy paper that would spell out the National security vision and guidelines for the attainment of National Goals.
3. The full 110-page NSP document would remain classified. However, a shorter nearly 50-page version is being published. Critical analysis of the state of affairs in various sectors is contained in the main document, and the implementation framework and the indicators developed for monitoring and evaluating the progress made towards the policy’s execution are not being included in the public version.
4. The document has sections on national cohesion, economy, defence, internal security , foreign policy and human security. Yes one may still find lots of gaps related to its implementation. But one can not deny that it is an important document which may if not lost to political whims and fancies will have a profound impact on the future of Pakistan.
5. The document has highlighted the need of Economic security and rather emphasized this as the central theme of the new national security policy and so underlined the need for peace in the region and cordial relations with the countries in the region. PM Khan said “ it was not possible for a country to remain secure for long if its economy was not stable. If you have to go to the International Monetary Fund at regular intervals, it means you security will be [adversely] affected”. 
6. The new policy also emphasized on “zero-tolerance” for any groups involved in terrorist activities on Pakistani soil. It said Pakistan will adopt a four-pronged policy of engagement: separating reconcilables from irreconcilables; cutting off recruitment; constricting financial sources; and pursuing targeted socio-economic policies to address governance-related concerns in regions where violent sub-nationalist elements operate.
7. The policy also underlines that extremism and radicalisation on the basis of ethnicity or religion pose a challenge to Pakistan and therefore inculcating interfaith and inter-sectarian harmony and societal tolerance in all its forms will be prioritized. PM Khan explained that the National Security Policy 2022-2026 centers on the government’s vision, which believes that the security of Pakistan rests in the security of its citizens. He during the debate on Policy further emphasizing the need of social cohesion said ; Any national security approach must priorities national cohesion and the prosperity of people while guaranteeing fundamental rights and social justice without discrimination,
8. The Policy, PM Khan during a Press brief also emphasized on the need of the rule of law. He said Rule of Law is important for prosperity and progress and strong presence of the rule of law is the prime reason behind the progress of any country . stressed the need for enforcement of law and compliance with contracts. 
   “One of the main reasons there is minimal foreign investment in Pakistan is that they [investors] do not trust Pakistan’s judicial system,” he said, adding that these companies and investors instead sought arbitration in international courts.
9. An official dealing with the Policy said “We are not seeking hostility with India for the next 100 years. The new policy seeks peace with immediate neighbours.”
10. Kashmir has once again been emphasized upon, although not as the core issue of conflict but as an issue for which Pakistan will always be committed to provide moral and financial support.
11. The policy is aimed at addressing three critical economic challenges, external imbalance, socio-economic inequalities, and geographic disparities between developed and under-developed regions of Pakistan.
12. When asked about the message it sends to India, its NSA said: “it tells India to do the right thing and jump on the bandwagon to benefit from regional connectivity to uplift our peoples. It also tells India, if you don’t want to do the right thing, it will be a loss to the entire region, but most of all India.”

Analysis.

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The 19th SAARC Summit was to have been held in Islamabad in November 2016 but was called off after India pulled out after the Uri terror attack that was blamed on Pakistan-based terrorists. Since then, come the winters , every year Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, blames India, as a ritual, for the postponement of the Annual summit of SAARC nations.

So, this year also, as expected, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi used the opportunity for India bashing. Qureshi while describing SAARC as an “important forum” blamed India for making this forum dysfunctional. He further added that : “Because of India’s obstinacy, this forum is suffering. If India does not want to come [for the Saarc Summit], then new means are available. I reiterate our invitation to all SAARC members and Pakistan is willing to host the 19th SAARC Summit in Islamabad. If India doesn’t want to come, they can attend virtually.  but they shouldn’t stop others. They should let others come and not affect this forum.”

Although Pakistan by capturing Afghanistan with the help of Taliban has achieved its geo strategic objective but its International image has suffered a huge set back. And now forget about diplomats and ministers visiting Pakistan for a summit even cricket teams are apprehensive of playing cricket in Pakistan.

Even if we leave Pakistan’s dwindling international status and focus on SAARC, we would notice that it is of little consequence for India and is now not a forum for any cooperation. Although it could play an important role in bringing prosperity and growth in the entire region but for reasons, as enumerated below, it lost the direction ;

One. SAARC summit cannot be held if even one member decides not to attend and as India had raised the ante and refused to do business as usual after Uri terror attack, it is now unlikely that India will be able to come down from that position till Pakistan does not take action against terror groups operating from Pakistan. So till India climbs down from that Position it is unlikely that a summit can be held in Pakistan.

Two. For any regional organization to be successful, every member state of that organization has to have an international perspective in spite of the responsibility of its members towards their national interests and sovereignty. However, the South Asian Nations are still suffering from that colonial era hang over of Ultra Nationalism. A noted Indian journalist Mr Pran Chopra once remarked ; ‘Excessive nationalism among members is one of the major obstacles in SAARC’s slow progress.’

Three. Although,SAARC charter excludes bilateral and contentious issues from any discussion. But almost every state in the region has problems in its bilateral relations with India ; Nepal has on the water distribution of Mahakali River and disputed border regions like Kalapani, Lipulekh, etc, Bangladesh had river water sharing issue and Pakistan has many problems with India. Hence achieving mutual trust and cooperation is a difficult task . The smaller nations feel India will use this forum to extend its dominance and India’s fear is that these small nations may gang up against India and form an alliance against India.

Four. Earlier foreign states like the USA had pursued its strategic interests by encouraging the mutual distrust and animosity among the states of the South Asian region it is now China’s turn. The US had previously used Pakistan as a spearhead to reduce India’s influence in the region and now China is doing the same. China has set up its own alternative to SAARC by launching the China-South Asia Emergency Supplies Reserve and Poverty Alleviation and Cooperative Development Centre, which includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The five countries are also all participants in the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Chinese Foreign Minister had also hosted a virtual meeting of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in April this year to cooperate on Covid-19 vaccination and poverty alleviation in South Asian states. Taliban Govt in Afghanistan has already approached China for the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the BRI’s flagship project, to Afghanistan.

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