The recent actions on the geo political front ; the capture of Afghanistan by Taliban with the overt support of Pakistan, the Chinese belligerence in South China sea and in Ladakh region, growing ineffectiveness of UNO, and now the invasion by Russia in Ukraine, are fast turning the world unruly and disorderly.

Ostensibly all these events are going to have an impact on every country including India and its neighbours and therefore we must understand its implications.

1. . The telephonic call of US Secy of State Mr Antony Blinken to his Indian counterpart Mr Jaishanker, and stressing on a “strong collective response to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” is going to place India in a Catch 22 situation.

A. India has off late become an important member of Quad led by USA in order to ward OFF the emerging threat from belligerent and powerful China. Not supporting USA may disturb this recent bonhomie.

B. Inorder to offset dependence on Russian equipment , India had started looking towards USA. Not supporting USA may put an end to this newly developed relationship.

C. On the other hand is Russia which has never hurt India’s interests and stood firm and has also been a major weapon supplier of India.

D. The Russians despite the pressure have supplied S400 sophisticated missile system and as per US laws , US may take punitive action against India.

E. Although India imports barely 2 percent of its crude oil needs from Russia and six percent of refined oil, but Russia being one of the largest exporters, any sanctions on its oil export may push the prices. This will further enhance India’s problems as it imports 85% of its oil needs. Secondly, Will India then oblige Russia by importing more oil ?

2. In view of this precarious situation THAT India finds itself in, It needs to take following into account ;

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The Blitzkrieg by Taliban supported by Pakistan’s army to capture Afghanistan and the badly managed retreat of forces by US from Afghanistan last year has brought the world to a situation where Bullies are going berserk.

Russian President Putin emboldened from what had happened a year back in Afghanistan, has blatantly disregarded the sovereignty of Ukraine and has challenged the International community.

When I wrote the following in my article ; US President Biden’s “Over the Horizon” Strategy ; Will it work for US ,a few months ago, I was not knowing that I will be proved right so soon, I wrote ;

“This Biden’s Policy of - No Boots on Ground is likely to cause more harm to US interests than do any good and may further create confusion amongst its allies and friends. US withdrawal might be complete, but can it afford to wind up its interests everywhere and if not then what would it do? Rely on its allies, and if allies have a doubt on US policies, then? No one loves to ally with a partner who is a reluctant supporter and does not stand by its friends in the times of crisis. This Policy decision may also have an adverse impact on its leadership image that US has enjoyed for last seven decades “.

“ The war in Afghanistan is not over and it has thrown up many new challenges” said Barry Pavel a senior vice president and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council , he further stated ;

“United States now has a lot of work to do, to shore up its alliances in the wake of the poorly executed withdrawal. This, too, will require new efforts if the United States seeks to navigate this dangerous new era in a way that protects American security and prosperity”.

So, there was no doubt that the badly planned retreat by US Leadership had emboldened other rogue states and rulers to do what Pakistan and Taliban did in Afghanistan and get away lightly.

So, what Russia has done now is , it has not only challenged the international community but has once again encouraged other bullies like China and has put the fate of Taiwan and other littoral states at peril.

Putin after a year of this above rout in Afghanistan has perhaps taken a calculated risk. He might have thought of taking an advantage of weak US Leadership and division in EU to sort out its security challenges.

A Nation can live through the Economic sanctions as Indians have done after the nuclear tests and Iran has done so for many years, so shall the Russians. The economic sanctions are No solution and No deterrence.

This inaction or indifference on the part of International community on these two occasions ; Afghanistan and Ukraine will surely encourage many such rogue nations to change the borders.

US President Biden has although warned of "consequences" for Russia and said the world would "hold Russia accountable" for its actions and this would cause catastrophic loss of life and human suffering".

Whether the peace returns or the stake holders go to war, we can with certainty state that ; It all started from Pakistan and Afghanistan, when Taliban supported by Pakistan captured Afghanistan and US army resorted to badly planned Retreat, thereby emboldening the rogue rulers.

The Image shows the Areas under conflict in 2014.

Before we dwell into present crisis between Russia and Ukraine it is important we go back into history and try and find as to how Nations and its people reach a state where they have little control over the events and suffer innumerable miseries. Often the politicians prick the past wounds, do not let the people forget those wounds and cause more miseries.

Background.

Its important for all Indians to go through the Background and grasp its quintessential elements because they bear huge importance to our future as well. The scholars say that History often repeats itself.

WWI had radically altered the  European map, It led to the defeat of the Central powers ; Austria- Hungary, Germany, Bulgaria and the ottoman empire i.e Turkey. Meanwhile in 1917 Bolsheviks had acquired power in Russia which led to the founding of Soviet Union, which brought Ukraine also in its control.  

The allies who won the war such as France, UK, Belgium, Italy, Romania and Greece gained territory and new nation states were created out of the collapse. The impact of collapse of ottoman empire was felt all over world where muslims resided. including India where it led to Khilafat Movement against Britishers who dismantled the Caliphate of Ottoman empire.  

Ostensibly , all these societies who lost territories or were imposed restrictions under treaty of Versailles must have had grievances to settle. Thus gradually , this led to strong racial movement led by those who believed that a HISTORICAL WRONG has been done to them and so they encouraged nationalism that was based on irredentism (popular movements based on correcting perceived historical wrongs) and revanchism (a policy of seeking to retaliate, especially to recover lost territory ). . This process started in Italy under Mussolini and in Germany under Hitler.

Post WW I The German Empire was dissolved and a democratic government, known as the Weimar Republic was created. Italy, although was an ally of UK in WWI and had made some post-war territorial gains; but the, Italian nationalists charged with the greatness of Roman empire were angered that the promises made by UK and France before the war were not fulfilled in the peace settlement.

So, from 1922 onwards a Nationalist  movement led by Mussolini seized power in Italy and repressed socialist, left-wing and liberal forces, and pursued an aggressive foreign policy aimed at making Italy a world power and a promise to bring back the glory of ROMAN EMPIRE.

Thus Hitler who acquired power in 1933 and Mussolini espousing a desire to bring back the glory of their Past greatness and superiority inspired their population and led the world to a path of collision and WW II. Both of them first insisted on the cultural and racial superiority of their countrymen and started a modernization and rearmament process . This obviously led to violation of human rights of minorities and we now know what Germans did to jews. Once they felt strong they started invading neighboring countries with an aim to capture those areas which they believed were theirs in past and that finally led to WWII.

If WWI had an impact on Europe, the WWII changed the political alignment and social structure of the globe. The Soviet Union and the United States emerged as rival super powers setting the stage for the nearly half-century-long cold war. It also triggered a decolonization process of Africa and Asia. Most countries whose industries had been damaged moved towards their own economic recovery and this triggered a decolonization process of Africa and Asia.. The Allies established occupation administrations in Austria and Germany. The former became a neutral state, non-aligned with any political bloc. The latter was divided into western and eastern occupation zones controlled by the Western Allies and the Soviet Union.

Germany lost a quarter of its pre-war territory. Among the eastern territories, Silesia, Neumark and Pomerania were seized by Poland, and East Prussia was divided between Poland and the Soviet Union, The Soviet Union also took over the Polish provinces east of the Curzon line^,  north-east Romania, parts of eastern Finland, and the three Baltic states were merged into Soviet Union. Germany was divided into two independent states.  West Germany and the  East Germany were created within the borders of allied and soviet occupation zones. The rest of Europe was also divided , Most Eastern and Central European countries fell   into Soviet sphere, , which led to establishment of Communist-led regimes, with support of the Soviets. As a result, East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia , Albania became satellite soviet states. It also led to a bipolar world ; the NATO and Soviet led warsaw pact countries.

In early 80s when Gorbachev became the President of USSR , he inorder to improve the economically burdened USSR launched a series of reforms popularly called Glasnost and Prestoirika which basically meant ; openness and reconstruction.

These reforms gradually, when percolated into the system which was managed by an iron hand of Communists, it set a series of events both within USSR and also in East Europe. Gorbachev’s decision to loosen the Soviet repression on the countries of Eastern Europe created an independent, democratic momentum that led to the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, and thereafter it led to the overthrow of Communist rule throughout Eastern Europe.

After the demise of Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, many east European countries and the Baltic States which were part of Soviet Union demanded independence from Moscow. In many such states ethnic violence also erupted because people were divided by the artificial frontiers drawn after the Russian revolution, WWI and WWII.

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Riots in Kazakhastan.

In the first days of 2022, Kazakhstan FACED the most intense and violent protests in its 30-year history of independence. Although they started as small-scale protests in West Kazakhstan DUE TO a sudden increase in gas prcies , the events grew into large-scale looting and violence all over the country including the country’s largest city – Almaty.

Ostensibly Social media has a role to play for protest to grow in such dimensions.

The protesters had a diverse array of actors on the ground with protesters having no unified agenda nor leadership, they looted banks, shops and burnt public and private property.

Reasons.

Many theories are being extended ;

1. Poilitical rivalry between the ex President who is now the Chairman of Security Council and the current President. The current President wanting to strengthen his hold has now ousted the Chairman of the Council and also the PM.
2. Frustration brewing in the country due to unemployment (increased by 12 percent in 2021) and reduced incomes due to covid, corruption and in equal distribution of income. Covid has also disproportionately affected internal migrants, such as young men with low-income backgrounds who came to cities from rural areas in search of job opportunities. The protesters have been overwhelmingly young men
3. Tablikhis from Afghanistan and Pakistan are using this opportunity to spread fundamentalism. They have been trying to make inroads in Central Asia including in Kazakhstan. It is alleged to have played a role in creating such an atmosphere in Kazakhstan, known for its liberal and secular values. The group is banned across Central Asia, Iran and Russia but not in Pakistan. Pakistan backed the activities of the Tablighi Jamaat even after the recent ban on the group by Saudi Arabia.
4. Some are also asking for Political reforms in the country fed up of authoritative rule for last 30 years.

Impact.

1. The Russian Govt intervened using the protection clause of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian version of NATO, and moved its armed forces into Kazakhstan for damage control. This move can have potentially sweeping consequences for geopolitics in the region as There is a large Russian speaking population residing on borders between Russia and Kazakhstan. This may increase hostilities between the Kazakh- and Russian-speaking populations of the country.
2. Kazakhstan also matters to the United States, as it has become a significant country for American energy concerns, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron having invested tens of billions of dollars in western Kazakhstan.
3. Such political instability will also help the fundamentalists and Terror organizations from Afghanistan, Pakistan to exploit.
4. Presence of Russian forces in Kazakhstan may also lead to tensions between USA and Russia. The violations of Human rights by the Political powers may lead to a situation like it exists in Syria , wherein various actors are into the fray.