Although Russia and India signed a flurry of trade and arms deals during President Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently, including the production of Kalashnikov assault rifles. But it is unlikely that their relations will ever be of the same level as they existed prior to USSR’s disintegration.

Almost around the same dates, US organized a virtual summit of almost 100 Democratic Nations including some of them where democracy is being stifled, in order to redeem its leadership status that got dented post Afghanistan debacle. But, whether the summit will ultimately live up to its worthy mission, only time will tell for instance; European Union is slightly reluctant about the return of U.S. global leadership and it wishes to build its independent relations that are not tied up with USA. 

The geo political environment has undergone a change and we need to understand the relationship not only with Russia but also with other nations including China in that context.

The two countries India and Russia despite the old relations, their trade has not crossed 10 billion dollars whereas, with China with whom India has fought a war and has a border dispute that recently led to a skirmish on the border, the trade has crossed 100 billion dollar mark this year.

During the recent meet the two countries (Russia and India) having set a very modest target ; to boost annual trade to $30 billion by 2025 is an indicator that the private sector is not very enthusiastic with trade and business with Russia as it is with China.

Two. The Growing India-US relations are an irritant that has loomed large over Delhi-Moscow ties. Mr Modi even held a big rally for Donald Trump in 2020 when he visited India.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chose to speak openly when India joined Quad – and said that the Quad is an attempt by West “To engage India in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies.

Three. China's deteriorating ties with the US also appear to have pushed Beijing and Moscow closer. Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the US-led West also seeks to dominate the region.

Four. Russia and China openly supported the Taliban regime and the Russian Foreign Minister did not even include India in the talks. He invited Pakistan, China, USA, Iran etc including Taliban representatives but not India. Although, their Security Advisor was recently present at the meeting organized by Dobhal on Afghanistan but prima facie Russia’s goals in Afghanistan are largely aligned with China and Pakistan and that leaves India with very little influence in the region.

International Politics; My Country First.

The rise of “my country first” politics in the world’s advanced industrial democracies has had a spillover into the international sphere.

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Pakistan has launched a global campaign to garner support for the Taliban government in Afghanistan, its senior officials including the Foreign Minister and PM are making all out efforts to ensure that Taiban Govt gets the world’s recognition.

The gist of Pakistan’s message is that failure to engage with the Taliban will lead to humanitarian disaster and also security consequences. In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly last weekend, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “There is only one way to go. We must strengthen and stabilize the current government, for the sake of the people of Afghanistan.”

So, at one hand they are resorting to Emotional selling of Taliban to the Western world and on the other hand issuing a threat as well. This has been Pakistan's old trick.

It is quite likely that West particularly USA may soon under some pretext, start the aid to Taliban Govt, like it has been dealing with Pakistan for last so many years. Pakistan , having been a Blue eyed boy of the Western world, knows; which side of the Bread is to be buttered.

Instead of focusing on what US does or does not do, we all must do our job and that is to tell the world, the naked truth about Pakistan and its Jehadi factory because ;

One, it’s a question of our saftety and security.

Secondly, its quite likely that many in the Western world may not be aware of the truth as foreign policy issues are never an Election agenda. 

lastly, Many in west believe that Indians have a long history of rivalry with Pakistan and so they cannot take India’s accusations on face value.

Therefore, instead of pointing fingers towards Pakistan we need to raise questions and allow people to find their answers and come to the conclusion themselves .

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Although the leaders of four nations in 2007 conceptualized the Quad, but could not formalize it, till 2017, as the Chinese threat could not be visualized then. So once China started pursuing its foreign policy objectives a little more aggressively and bulldozing its way in South China sea that the world woke to up to the threat imposed by the Red Dragon.

As regards India, it also felt the need after Chinese entered Ladakh region and threatened India at Dokhlam.  In addition to this, India now finds itself being challenged by China in its own backyard as China has either replaced or soon going to replace India as the largest trading partner of Bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka etc and has a much stronger Naval fleet, atleast in numbers than what India possesses. China in last 20-30 years has modernized and equipped its armed forces to such a level that its hard for India to challenge China militarily, all by itself. Although on land it may be able to do so but surely in waters it cannot, China is churning out ships in hundreds and even US cannot match that speed.

All this has not happened over night , but this realistaion that India needs to act on it has dawned in last few years, as all this while, the Indian policy makers were gleefully happy trying to resolve Border dispute with China diplomatically.  

Despite China nibbling India's territory inch by inch, it is still reluctant to name China and ally itself with a Group whose sole agenda is Anti China, perhaps because it has a roaring business relations with China worth 77 billion dollars and it also does not wish to antagonize Russia. China today, despite all the border tensions, is the largest trading partner of India.

Need For an Alliance

The pandemic has also helped China to expand its influence to regions which were once under US sway. Undoubtedly, China in last few years has been challenging USA’s influence in many regions, but the pandemic has catapulted China to a superpower league, wherein it has replaced USA from number one position, in many areas.

There are two ways of beating your rival, one is by developing your own competencies and through a fair competition defeating him. But there is another way often taken by rascals and that is PULL YOUR RIVAL DOWN and then occupy his position.  The pandemic has just enabled China to do that ; pulled down USA.

Now one can argue endlessly whether China used virus as a weapon or its spread was a genuine mistake but the data and the events that have unfolded in 2020-21 will not lie.

 US and China who were battling for influence in Latin America till recently, the pandemic has helped China immensely to gain a Very strong foothold in USA’s backyard and USA will have to do something extraordinary now to regain its lost status in Latin America. 

A Feb21 report in Times says that ; As countries in the region grapple with a cascade of challenges to their developing economies, they increasingly look not to the North but to the East i.e. China

The report says that ; China has now emerged as the top trading partner of South American countries

When the world was grappling with covid , By late October’20, China had provided over 179 billion masks, 1.73 billion protective suits and 543 million testing kits to 150 countries and seven international organizations around the globe. The vaccine itself is now being increasingly used by all for geo political purposes. China is using it to further its influence in various regions. It is using vaccines to build bridges where it feels most valuable. In September’20, Brazil’s agreed to buy 60 million doses of vaccines from China, Peru’s President Francisco Sagasti announced the purchase of 38 million vaccine doses from state-run Chinese firm, Mexico had also signed an advance-purchase agreement with another Chinese developer,  Pakistan’s Foreign Minister also revealed that China agreed to provide his nation with half a million doses of vaccine free of charge.

Admiral Craig S. Faller, who leads the U.S. military’s Southern Command, told a video meeting with members of the Defense Writers Group in December that China is actively making “deals to try to get the vaccine deployed and employed” around the globe.

One can easily assess the importance of this humanitarian aid. This is not simple geopolitics, but an indicator of the emerging world order.  The countries were jostling with eachother to realign their strategic relationship. While all countries were looking inwards focusing on domestic corona virus problems, China was looking outward and pushing its agenda agressively. 

 

Quad Summit ; Salient Aspects.

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Now that US has withdrawn from Afghanistan literally turning a blind eye towards Pakistan’s invasion and  its occupation of Afghanistan by its stooge Taliban,, its time to evaluate Biden’s speech of 31 Aug, because this speech gives an indicator of what US is upto and how Pakistan has placed itself  in this region.

  1. While congratulating his military, intelligence and diplomatic staff for organising this withdrawal of 1,20,000 personnels successfully Biden mentioned that they made this possible knowing that ISIS-K terrorists, sworn enemies of the Taliban are lurking around.

Comments ; The Afghan Govt kept shouting its lungs out that Pakistani regulars are helping Taliban but this man made no efforts to save the Govt that was recognised by the world but was so keen to share intelligence with Taliban about the whereabouts of ISIS-K. This clearly indicates that He is outrightly and blatantly supporting Pakistan and India is likely to soon face the heat in Kashmir and Biden Govt Officials will be lecturing India on human rights violations in Kashmir. It will also not be surprising if Pakistan is out of the Grey list of FATF(Financial Action Task Force ) and funds would start flowing to Afghanistan Govt for resurrection of Afghan economy.

  1. Biden emphasised that ; Although We don’t take Taliban by their words alone but by their actions. And we have leverage to make sure those commitments are met.

Comments. How has he so confidently stated that He has a leverage over Taliban. What has he done that he enjoys that leverage? This confidence has come from Pakistan whom he has rewarded with entire Afghanistan.

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.

The manner in which Taliban has occupied political power in Afghanistan as a result of invasion by Pakistan regulars is a clear indication that war against terrorism is a war devoid of any values and the world pays only lip service to it.

It is just not possible for any armed group of irregulars to have captured such a sizeable area on its own when for last 20 years it was hammered by a powerful army.

The Afghan ministers kept shouting their lungs out that Pakistan army is helping the Taliban fighters but it made no difference to the US administration rather it ensured that the elected Afghan Govt, recognised by the whole world is compeletely wiped off.

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Our journey as a modern nation statestarted in 1947 with the historic speech byPandit Jawaharlal Nehru, with 95% illiteracy, barely any industry and transport system, armed forces that were divided due to partition lacking equipment was largely in disarray, if there were guns- then the dial sights were taken away by Pakistanis, making the guns ineffective, if there were files- maps were taken way by Pakistanis, if there were battalions, half the men had gone away to Pakistan and so on.


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