With US forces largely gone from the battlefield and Biden’s tactics of fighting the Taliban without Boots on Ground has enabled Taliban to capture more than half the number of districts, out of 421 in Afghanistan. The US Def secy has to concede that strategic momentum is with Taliban and intelligence sleuths of USA have predicted that the capture of Kabul is, if not weeks than just a few months away. The Taliban are largely dictating when and where they will fight the government forces with multi-pronged thrusts and the authorities are struggling to halt that movement.

One day the militants are on the verge of capturing a provincial capital in the northwest, and the next day they are encircling Kandahar in the south -- all this while dissipating Afghan armed forces, seizing valuable border crossings and population centers. The strategy appears to be -- exhausting the country's overstretched air force and army, and depriving Kabul of much needed revenue and finally force them to crumble.

Taliban used a simple tactics, Rapid movement and surround the provincial capitals and population centers bypassing the over stretched afghan forces, 

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US President Biden’s determination to pull out its troops from Afghanistan and China’s refusal to restructure Pakistan’s debt of 3 billion dollars has left debt ridden Pakistan in real doldrums like a proverbial Hindi proverb ; DHOBI KA KUTTA NA GHAR KA NAA GHAT KA.

Although in recent years, Pakistan has only been calling China - its all weather friend and avoided to confess its ties with USA, but its armed forces always had close relations with US Generals with whom they had fought Jehad against erstwhile USSR in Afghanistan, when they operated hand in glove. And even as late as till Osama was killed the two armies operated in close cooperation. The bonhomie had died once Osama was found in Pakistan residing just adjacent to its military academy.

Despite the decision of pulling out troops, the US, may still be interested in Afghanistan and what happens in Central Asia, but that engagement may no more be via Pakistan, and that relationship may surely be coming to an end, unless something crops up or Pakistan offers USA a big carrot which it can not refuse.

This may leave Pakistan absolutely without any strategic importance for West. This China card may also fail now as India has after many years found its importance in the strategic map of USA. This leaves Pakistan , a weak Pakistan, virtually becoming a vassal state of China. This must be making Pakistan think tank really nervous. 

So, one may say that as US strategic interest is shifting, Pakistan may still be wanting to hang on to the old relationship. Hence, it will not be wrong to assume that the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi now must be trying to have two friends instead of just one, which means that it earnestly wants to hold on to the US that seems to be disengaging strategically.

Some media reports claim that a military base was offered by Pakistan to US to keep this relationship going but this idea is suspect as Pakistan would then be antagonizing both ; Taliban whom it nurtured for decades to take over Afghanistan and can not afford to annoy them now and China- its all weather friend which will not be happy if Pakistan gives away a military base to USA.

There is far more at stake and the situation is much different from 2001 when Pakistan had allowed the US to use its airspace and bases. Furthermore, with the recent flare-up in Palestine, Islamabad would have to be doubly cautious about what it offers to the US.

With its economic crisis intensifying after China has refused to provide debt relief and declined to restructure the 3 billion dollar liabilities, Pakistan has very little maneuverability left now.

Its time for Pakistani strategists and military establishment to put on their thinking hats and pull something out.

The US decision to finally withdraw from Afghanistan has placed Pakistan in a catch 22 situation. It neither can afford to break relations from US and nor can afford to antagonize its friends and allies who do not want US presence anymore in Afghanistan.

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