The conference of foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) that has started from today in Pakistan will not only see the participation of 48 islamic nations but also China, whose Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been invited as the Guest of Honour by Pakistan.

Pakistan has also invited the redundant All India Hurriyat Conference leaders to attend the OIC meet. Their attendance has never served any purpose and so it will be of little consequence even now, even if they are allowed. India is too big a country to bother about it.

Although the agenda of the meeting is Building partnerships for Unity Justice and Development, but Pakistan Govt which is facing a political and economic turmoil at its home is surely going to use this opportunity to score a few brownie points to avoid cutting a sorry figure. And one of them is as usual Kashmir.

Unfortunately for Pakistan, the Islamic world has its own challenges with each muslim nation pursuing its own foreign policy objectives that suits their interest. Morocco, Indonesia, Syria, Iraq etc have not shown any interest in Kashmir issue and in running down India on this issue ever. As a result even if a resolution is passed like several have been on past occasions, India will continue to tread its own path. India has had traditionally cordial relations with most of the Muslim nations and that has always been a thorn for Pakistan.

The OIC meets are of little strategic importance, yes for Pakistan the meet may be of great consequence as it serves its domestic needs particularly when Imran Khan has to face a No Confidence Motion soon.

The recent actions on the geo political front ; the capture of Afghanistan by Taliban with the overt support of Pakistan, the Chinese belligerence in South China sea and in Ladakh region, growing ineffectiveness of UNO, and now the invasion by Russia in Ukraine, are fast turning the world unruly and disorderly.

Ostensibly all these events are going to have an impact on every country including India and its neighbours and therefore we must understand its implications.

1. . The telephonic call of US Secy of State Mr Antony Blinken to his Indian counterpart Mr Jaishanker, and stressing on a “strong collective response to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” is going to place India in a Catch 22 situation.

A. India has off late become an important member of Quad led by USA in order to ward OFF the emerging threat from belligerent and powerful China. Not supporting USA may disturb this recent bonhomie.

B. Inorder to offset dependence on Russian equipment , India had started looking towards USA. Not supporting USA may put an end to this newly developed relationship.

C. On the other hand is Russia which has never hurt India’s interests and stood firm and has also been a major weapon supplier of India.

D. The Russians despite the pressure have supplied S400 sophisticated missile system and as per US laws , US may take punitive action against India.

E. Although India imports barely 2 percent of its crude oil needs from Russia and six percent of refined oil, but Russia being one of the largest exporters, any sanctions on its oil export may push the prices. This will further enhance India’s problems as it imports 85% of its oil needs. Secondly, Will India then oblige Russia by importing more oil ?

2. In view of this precarious situation THAT India finds itself in, It needs to take following into account ;

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In 2015, the Syrian President Al Assad was close to losing control over the country to the Opposition rebels armed with sophisticated weaponry - including anti-aircraft stinger missiles. However, Within a short period of six months, Russian fighter aircrafts carried out 9000 sorties and bombarded rebels’ positions relentlessly and halted the rebels.

But in the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Russian air force, which is many times powerful than Ukrainian Airforce, is still not seen in the numbers that was expected and that is baffling many security experts. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, United States intelligence had predicted a blistering air assault by vast Russian air power that its military assembled in order to dominate Ukraine’s skies. Their officials had estimated that Russia had potentially readied hundreds of the thousands of aircraft in its air force for a Ukraine mission

Usually, every military before the army’s land campaign commences its airforce tries to achieve Air Dominance so that its ground troops are not vulnerable to enemy’s air attacks. However, since this war began on 24 feb the Russians have avoided using its air force which is many times superior to ukraininan air force. (Refer Chart above).

Dr Mauro Gilli, a senior researcher at the Swiss Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH-Zurich)says “ Russia has refrained from deploying jet fighters and bombers to strike targets in Ukraine,” he further states that “Ukrainian air defences have not been completely neutralized and Ukraine still has degrees of capacity to detect, acquire and engage Russian aircraft in the air…Instead, Ukrainian air force fighter jets are still carrying out low-level, defensive counter-air and ground-attack sorties”.

Another security expert says that “Ukrainian troops with surface-to-air rockets are able to threaten Russian aircraft and create risks for Russian pilots trying to support ground forces.

Another US General says that - While the Russians have been underperforming, Ukraine’s military has been exceeding expectations so far and as every day it goes on, there’s a cost and the risk goes up. And they’re not doing that and it just is really hard to explain for any realistic reason.”

This has peculiar behavior of Russians has left many analysts and officials questioning if there’s something wrong with one of the world’s most powerful air powers. 

Explanations.

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The Blitzkrieg by Taliban supported by Pakistan’s army to capture Afghanistan and the badly managed retreat of forces by US from Afghanistan last year has brought the world to a situation where Bullies are going berserk.

Russian President Putin emboldened from what had happened a year back in Afghanistan, has blatantly disregarded the sovereignty of Ukraine and has challenged the International community.

When I wrote the following in my article ; US President Biden’s “Over the Horizon” Strategy ; Will it work for US ,a few months ago, I was not knowing that I will be proved right so soon, I wrote ;

“This Biden’s Policy of - No Boots on Ground is likely to cause more harm to US interests than do any good and may further create confusion amongst its allies and friends. US withdrawal might be complete, but can it afford to wind up its interests everywhere and if not then what would it do? Rely on its allies, and if allies have a doubt on US policies, then? No one loves to ally with a partner who is a reluctant supporter and does not stand by its friends in the times of crisis. This Policy decision may also have an adverse impact on its leadership image that US has enjoyed for last seven decades “.

“ The war in Afghanistan is not over and it has thrown up many new challenges” said Barry Pavel a senior vice president and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council , he further stated ;

“United States now has a lot of work to do, to shore up its alliances in the wake of the poorly executed withdrawal. This, too, will require new efforts if the United States seeks to navigate this dangerous new era in a way that protects American security and prosperity”.

So, there was no doubt that the badly planned retreat by US Leadership had emboldened other rogue states and rulers to do what Pakistan and Taliban did in Afghanistan and get away lightly.

So, what Russia has done now is , it has not only challenged the international community but has once again encouraged other bullies like China and has put the fate of Taiwan and other littoral states at peril.

Putin after a year of this above rout in Afghanistan has perhaps taken a calculated risk. He might have thought of taking an advantage of weak US Leadership and division in EU to sort out its security challenges.

A Nation can live through the Economic sanctions as Indians have done after the nuclear tests and Iran has done so for many years, so shall the Russians. The economic sanctions are No solution and No deterrence.

This inaction or indifference on the part of International community on these two occasions ; Afghanistan and Ukraine will surely encourage many such rogue nations to change the borders.

US President Biden has although warned of "consequences" for Russia and said the world would "hold Russia accountable" for its actions and this would cause catastrophic loss of life and human suffering".

Whether the peace returns or the stake holders go to war, we can with certainty state that ; It all started from Pakistan and Afghanistan, when Taliban supported by Pakistan captured Afghanistan and US army resorted to badly planned Retreat, thereby emboldening the rogue rulers.