It was in 2013 that a 21 day standoff between India and China in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector(DOB) in eastern Ladakh took place, thereafter the next year, the two sides were locked in another standoff in the Chumar sector of Ladakh, then, in 2017, the two countries were involved in a tense standoff in the Doklam region , when Chinese troops started constructing a road and then the Ladakh standoff in 2020.
It appears as if Chinese are observing some sort of ritual every 2-3 years.
These standoffs obviously point a finger at the utility of the peace agreement of 1993 and 1996.
What has changed in last 15 years that China has to resort to all these intrusions.
Is India only responsible to carry the burden of these Agreements ?
If perception of LAC is the major issue of difference then should China not honour India's percpetion.
Why the Intrusions ?
Although, these skirmishes are not new and they have a long history but now the Chinese come prepared for a long haul. But why now, when peace agreements have been signed barely 15 years ago.
One. Is it part of some change in Chinese foreign policy ? (China has been on the diplomatic offensive against many countries; Australia, Philippines etc).
Second, Are they trying to deflect attention of their people from issues inside the country, which have had an adverse impact on the country’s economy ?.
As regards its aggressive policy in South China Sea, one can easily find a reason, But, why against India, where most of the strategic experts and successive Govts considered them to be just a Competitor instead of an enemy or a rival.
If we place ourselves in their position, we would be easily able to comprehend the reasons ;
One. 80 percent of China's energy imports and 39.5 percent of China's total trade passes through the South China Sea. China is a net importer of oil and all its ports are along South China Sea. The world’s 85% trade takes place through seas and so any country whose economic interest grows beyond its frontiers has to make sure that its sea lanes are protected.
Two. In order to avoid being solely dependent on sea routes and as China is a net importer of oil which comes from West Asia, A secured land route from Pakistan is therefore very important. Hence the link from Gwadar port through POK becomes important for China. so, it must ensure , given the bottle necks it passes through, are adequately guarded.
Three. So, all these smaller nations Like Bangladesh, Mynmmar , Srilanka are important as they provide access to Indian Ocean and Pakistan becomes strategically important for its land route to China.
Four. India is the only country in this region that is big enough in terms of resources and size to challenge China. Hence, These small states around India also become important so that India’s influence beyond its shores is marginalized and it is unable to challenge.
So, now the pattern becomes clearer.
First surround India through a string of ports which provide China access to Indian Ocean, so as to reduce India’s dominance in Indian Ocean. There after , marginalise its influence in this region using its deep pockets by buying the poor neighbours to virtual submission. Three, develop a highway to connect everyone, four finally target India’s soft belly ; its long inhospitable borders and keep it busy guarding them.
In these last 20 years or so, China has systematically executed this plan and it is unlikely that it will loosen its grip now and let India regain its position in South Asia. SARRC is virtually dead now.
It’s a catch 22 situation for India, either it lets China into it and lose its supremacy or let this association die its natural death.
China has achieved its political objective by occupying strategically important places to safeguard its interest and proving its hegemony over India by undermining its regional status and also secured the 1959 claim line, without firing a bullet and without any bloodshed, primarily because we could not foresee this happening.
China therefore does not have any motivation or reason to go for war.
China has already achieved its Objectives , where as, India which was taken by surprise and lost territory in Depsang and North of Pangong Tso is nursing its injuries. Although it has a valid reason to go in for a war to regain the lost territory, but it just does not have the capabilities to do so.
If anyone got time, it would be interesting going through the articles written by our security and Foreign Policy experts who always preferred to call China as the Competitor and were not willing to accept China as a rival. All of them were happy with India wining hearts and minds of Afghans and investing in its infrastructure development; building libraries, parliament, roads and bridges and today with Afghanistan under the belt of Pakistan which is basically China’s proxy, the strangulation of India is almost complete. Battery of senior security and foreign policy experts advertently or inadvertently did not envisage this eventuality; capture of Afghanistan by China’s proxy - Pakistan.
Since India secured the dominating heights on the Kailash Range, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had been persistent that disengagement must begin with our withdrawal from the Kailash Range because India had ‘altered the status quo’. Therefore , when one looks at the withdrawal of Indian army from Kailash range that it captured in Aug20 without any reciprocal action from the Chinese side (Depsang area), it clearly appears that India even after 70 years has not learnt to use its military force for the projection of power and it somehow loves to negotiate from a position of disadvanatge.
It is therefore impractical, particularly, when facing an enemy which is almost 2-3 times superior to India in terms of military equipment, to think that the negotiations alone will take us anywhere ;
|
Army |
China |
India |
|
manpower |
21,83,000 |
14,44,000 |
|
Self propelled artillery |
3,800 |
235 |
|
towed artillery |
3,600 |
4,060 |
|
rocket projectors |
2,650 |
266 |
|
AirForce |
China |
India |
|
Fighter aircrafts |
1,232 |
538 |
|
Navy |
China |
India |
|
aircraft carriers |
2 |
1 |
|
destroyers |
36 |
10 |
|
frigates |
52 |
13 |
|
submarines |
74 |
16 |
This kind of supremacy enjoyed by China can not be matched by India for atleast two decades particularly when China is producing aircrafts and naval ships at a rate more than even USA.
Today, most of India’s best fighter aircrafts must have been deployed to face the challenge from China and 1/3 of its fighting land force must be poised to deal with the Chinese along 4000 kms long border. The Indians will not be able to thin out its western front and Line of Control any further for Pakis and Jehadis to take advantage.
In addition to above, India in order to achieve some strategic independence in geo political arena, is now left with no reliable ally or friend. It has to, deal with this formidable enemy, all by himself
We have reached this state mainly because of following reasons ;
One. All the Govts since independence including the current one have only one point agenda and that is to maintain Civilian supremacy over own military. This enabled civilian babus and Mantris, having no idea of military matters, occupying decision making positions.
Two. No sincere effort being made to indigenize the def manufacturing .
Three. Our inability to learn projecting power through the use of military force.
As a result, for at least next decade or may be more, India is not likely to fill this gap and China will enjoy the supremacy over ; seas as well as air and land.
Should We be sitting on our haunches ?
So, should we be sitting and reacting to each intrusion into our territory and pleading China to withdraw through endless negotiations.
Can we do something to offset this Chinese game plan? Instead of just shutting media inorder to control political damage we need to do following on immediate basis ;
One. Instead of doing nothing that will only embolden China to grab territory inch by inch, we must use special forces in limited manner to attack Chinese positions which are across the LAC making it difficult for Chinese to sustain them logistically. Taking a cue from what Pakistanis have been doing with us all these years, and what we did in Bangladesh in 1971 using Mukti Vahini, we can use local Tibetans for this purpose. If China tries to up the ante and increase the level of escalation, it would take time as movement of troops and deployment of equipment in mountains is difficult, which will also give us enough time to take appropriate measures. As such Mountains offer great advantage to the defender and therefore we must compel the enemy to react.
Two. Give up this inhibition for Quality and focus on numbers also. One can deal with a few strong Honey bees but if there are hundreds of weak bees accompanied by few strong bees, it would become extremely difficult to deal with their stings. Lets, therefore, create a swarm of frigates, submarines and fighter aircrafts at a faster rate and deploy them against China, even if they are of low quality. Yes a suitable balance of Quality vs quantity has to be maintained. To be fair, even China does the same thing. The appropriate role of these low quality frigates, submarines, aircrafts can always be worked out.
Last but not the least, No Nation can become powerful militarily unless it has a strong manufacturing base. That it appears now, the Govt has learnt its lessons post the recent standoff. It has taken a series of steps to make India self reliant in defense manufacturing. Hopefully in next one decade we would be better off, if this political will continues. But till then China would have got the better of us and nibbled all tactically important ground around the LAC.
Conclusion.
The efforts being made today to make India self reliant in defense manufacturing will bear fruits perhaps in next 10-20 years, but can we as a Nation wait for so long and bear the hegemonistic attitude of Chinese, who will by then gobble up each tactically important area on the LAC.
In view of the above, use of local Tibetans along with Special forces against Chinese troops occupying positions across LAC assumes great importance. It would surely help in causing deterrence.
India used locals in Bangladesh and in Srilanka also to achieve the strategic objectives, even Nehruji allowed creation of 22 establishment post the 1962 debacle. The time has now come to deal with Chinese squarely. This shying away from responsibilities will not help India in fulfilling its aspirations. Pl also refer to ;
https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-security-concerns-challenges-3/india-s-difficult-neighourhood,