Restoring Peace in war torn Afghanistan seems to be one of the most complex problems, and, despite thousands being displaced, killed, injured and Afghanistan has turned into a rubble, one cannot see light at the other end of the tunnel.
The treacherous nature of the insurgency, the divided and ineffective Afghan government, clash of interests amongst different stake holders ; China, Pakistan, Iran, Taliban, USA, Russia, India, Afghan Govt , the tribal Afghan society are all contributing towards making it a complex issue.
USA has already suffered huge casualties and it appears in no mood to continue deploying its troops. Thus it decided to have an agreement with Taliban whom it bombed out of Kabul Post 9/11. It has been one year since the United States and Taliban signed a landmark agreement leading to a political settlement between Kabul and the Islamic insurgents.
Under the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban deal, the U.S. forces were to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021, while the Taliban have to provide security guarantees, cease support of al-Qaida, and deny safe haven to foreign terrorists. The deal also aimed to pave the way for a permanent ceasefire and direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghan leadership. However, the February 2020 Doha agreement and the subsequent negotiations have failed to bring
It would be naïve to believe that US Govt was not aware of the dangerous path it is treading as any withdrawal can set the whole region on fire like Syria. Hence, the fate of the so-called peace deal, hangs in balance as to how Taliban sticks to the terms and conditions of the deal. The number of attacks in and around the Afghan capital over the past year leaves no one in doubt about the Taliban’s intentions.
Pakistan is the Key Player.
As regards Pakistan, an important stake holder in this war, USA has tried everything Post 9/11 ; From making Pakistan an ally in fighting Taliban amounting to running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, threats about sending Pakistan to the “stone age” to raising it to the status of “non-NATO ally,” accusing its prime intelligence agency of supporting the Haqqani terrorist network,” cutting down its aid but nothing has worked.
From the age of SEATO and CENTO to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the emergence of the Taliban, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 2020 Taliban-U.S. pact, U.S.-Pakistan relations have although taken many twists and turns but the core object of this love-hate relationship has always stayed the same ;-
- India’s security concerns & Challenges
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What does the Backside of Retreating Chinese SOLDIERS Indicate?
"The difference between a mountain and a mole hill is your perspective."said Al Neuharth an American businessman, author, and columnist and the founder of USA Today,
So my effort is Not to make the pull back of Chinese ; a mole hill into a mountain but to point out as to how this is likely to be percieved by people and by various Governments around.
As Joan of Arc had once said : All battles are first won or lost, in the mind.. if you have lost it in mind you will surely lose it on ground.
so, Perception or How one percieves a situation becomes important and can make a difference between victory and loss.
The Govts world over have been resorting to various means to manipulate the people’s perception in their favours.
The disengagement process thus can also be percieved differently.
China was in a habit of nibbling area inch by inch, feet by feet, mile by mile. It did it in Mongolia, with Vietnam, in South China sea and had been doing it with Bharat since 1950s and surprisingly was getting away without any reprisal.
However, few soldiers at Galwan changed the trend.
- India’s security concerns & Challenges
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Our Biggest Security Concern is the Lack of Strategic Sense
There is no other Nation in the history of human civilization which has been taken by surprise by its adversaries so often & with such remarkable regularity. We were taken by surprise in 1947 by the tribals from Pakistan & lost half of Kashmir, thereafter the Chinese surprised us in 1962 & took away Aksai Chin. In 1965, the Pakis once again surprised us, In 1989-90 we were surprised by the uprising in Kashmir and then started the long saga of surprises; the Kargil intrusion, highjack, bomb explosions and fidayeens. And then as recent as last year, the Chinese once again surpised us in Ladakh as they had come fully prepared.
What Does Military Mean to Civic Polity.
The Indian army because of its apolitical nature has often been confined to the cantonments & is therefore known to the civil society only through the electronic media and Hindi movies.
Our responses against both our inimical neighbours have been knee jerk and without any long term vision and considerations. They have been purely based on some vague idealistic utopian ideas ;
You can not change your neighbours / One has to learn to live with them/ Avoid behaving like a Big Bully brother / China is not our enemy but just a Competitor/ Peaceful coexistence/ Noninterference in each others affairs/ India has never conquered foreign territories but has won hearts…..
Little realisng that only an economically developed and militarily powerful country can sell its culture, a weak nation can not. (The Clash of Civilisations By Samuel Huntington). Asoka, the Great sold Buddhism to the World when he became the Emperor after the Battle of Kalinga and the Cholas could spread Indian culture to South East Asian nations because they were powerful Kings, and had strong navy.
Stephen Cohen in his book, Emerging Power: India says, “No other country has ever engaged in as lengthy wide ranging and intensive discussions as India did before it crossed various nuclear thresholds. This was when its neighbor with whom it had fought a war had become nuclear in 1967.
It is primarily these reasons as to why India has been taken by surprise repatedly and so often right from 1947, if we do not take the medieval history into account.
and so what happened in Ladakh again is part of the same long saga.
The reasons as to why Bharat decided to pull back from strategic heights that it occupied a few months ago are difficult to be explained.
May be we are still adopting the same old policies of Not antagonsiing our neighbors and so to attain peace we once again Compromised and agreed to withdraw troops from the Strategic heights that we had captured in response to Chinese intrusion into our territory.