So as expected Pakistan has lived up to its reputation of NOT ALLOWING any PM ever since its independence to complete one full tenure.

The two nations ;India and Pakistan started their journey together but look where is one left today and where the other has reached.

Both of us had similar problems but thanks to our founding fathers who ensured that India does not go back into the abyss from where it emerged after 800 years of slavery.

Imran Khan since coming to power in 2018 had towed a hard line view on USA and on the eve of Taliban capturing Afghanistan declared them as Freedom Fighters. So, it won’t be surprising that the Pak army which wanted to keep the relations with US going even after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, would not have been very happy with all this.

Imran Khan just a day prior to the vote of confidence had given a hint of it. He said that the establishment has given him few choices ; Resign, dissolve the assembly and hold elections. We all understand what establishment in Pakistan implies.

USA has apparently adopted a hands off policy regarding Pakistan and despite all the hulla gulla , Biden did not bother to call Imran even once since his taking over as US President.

Notwithstanding the above, Although the recent events post Taliban take over and India emerging an unofficial frontline state for USA in this region to checkmate China, might give this feeling that Pakistan has lost its strategic importance.

But, it should never be construed that USA has no interest left in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although, it claims that what Pakistan could do in Afghanistan is now being achieved through Quatar, but Pakistan’s strategic importance as a nuclear weapon state, a neighbor of China and its influence in Afghanistan and thereafter its reach to Central Asian republics and Iran can never be undermined. It is also an important member of OIC.

In view of the above, Imran Khan’s going, may rather be in the interest of USA as the next PM likely to be Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz Sharif may be more receptive to US interests in the region.

This old bonhomie between USA and Pakistan that existed a decade ago may not be possible anymore. However, even normalization of relations will benefit Pakistan as it may help him to wriggle out of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) dragnet and also mitigating its economic problems.

Gen Bajwa, the Pak army Chief, in his recent statement gave a hint, when he said ; Pakistan wants good relations with US but not at the cost of others. This clearly indicates that Pakistan has learnt its lessons well and hence it will now avoid placing all the apples in one basket.

But has it learnt to avoid taking a confrontational approach with India and wind up terrorist infrastructure; only time will tell.

Notwithstanding the above, one can never take away this uncanny ability of Pakistan establishment to exploit the geo-political situation to its advantage and be able to run with the hare and hunt with the hound.

After the Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics of the Biden administration, Daleep Singh, threatened India with ‘consequences’ for purchasing oil from Russia and setting up an alternate payment mechanism to circumvent US sanctions, it was expected that the tempers would run high.

So, not surprised when few supporters of the current Indian Govt ; The Hindu Sena went over board and defaced the US embassy name plate.

In the previous article; India tying itself in knots, I had just said the same. If the war continues for longer, India, given the stand it has taken, will find itself in a precarious situation. https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-security-concerns-challenges-3/ukraine-crisis-india-tying-itself-in-knots

Although many Foreign ministers of Quad countries and other nations including Russia and China have come and gone but India’s stand has remained unchanged and instead of towing the US line, it has increased its imports of Russian oil.

So, once again its time to ask following questions;

What kind of support would we expect from rest of the world incase a few years from now we face threat from China. Remember China threat has not gone.

On what grounds would we be appealing to the world community then?

What would happen in case in future China and resurgent Pakistan demand execution of UN resolution on Kashmir or jointly carry out a military operation against India?.

On what grounds would we be appealing to the world community then?

Will a poor and pauper Russia be in a position to extend help to India against China?

Do we realize how many border related problems we have with our neighbors.

How do we expect a rule based Indian Ocean region when we ourselves do not support such regimes elsewhere.

All these questions will have to be answered some day and we may find it difficult then to get international support particularly when we have border related disputes with almost all our neighbours ; Kashmir is still one of the most contentious issues lying pending.

These are the questions that are related to Values as well as our Security.

Unfortunately now, it appears that the Supporters of the Govt are dictating the foreign policy of India. It is Russia and Ukraine that are fighting, but far away in India we also stand divided; there are die hard Putin supporters as well as Detractors who feel he is a cruel DICTATOR.

Initially when the conflict started and India abstained itself from UN Voting the action taken by the Govt had to be justified by the party in power. and so A narrative was created that projected Ukraine and USA as villains and Putin as helpless.

The IT Cells of the Govt have done a good job on social media ; they made the Indians to believe that Ukraine is responsible for this war as it wanted to join NATO and Russia had no choice but to fight. Little realizing that in future if China does the same to us on the issue of Quad as Russians have done to Ukraine on the issue of NATO, what would be our stand then. They also fabricated stories like Ukraine voted against India in UN Security Council on the issue of Nuclear tests and on Kashmir.

Hence, the general perception in India is that Russia is a true friend of India and USA, a power seeker that has never helped India. The examples quoted are ;

One. During 1971 when USA tried coercing India by sending its 7^th fleet in Bay of Bengal.

Two. US continued supplying sophisticated war machinery to Pakistan which Pakistan repeatedly used against India in wars . 1965 is a sure example of that.

Read more ...

The current Srilankan Govt is known to have a soft corner for China and China has immensely benefited from them. However, now that Srilanka is in deep economic turmoil ; some due to its own creation and some can be attributed to Covid, it is now doing a balancing act and empathising with Indian security concerns. How long will the empathy remains is to be seen Ultimately like in domestic politics even in International politics WHAT PAYS IS YOUR NUISANCE VALUE. 

for more reading https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-plans-power-project-sri-lanka-chinas-shelved-83734800

Also read ; https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-security-concerns-challenges-3/the-srilankan-crisis-will-it-help-chinese-to-further-entrench-themselves

The unannounced visit of Chinese foreign minister to India for two days is seen by many that China is now keen to have normal ties with India, because this is the first visit by a high level Chinese Government official after the relations had strained due to China’s intrusion in Ladakh.

However, in my opinion this visit was not for that purpose, as the final outcome of the visit has shown ; Both have agreed to disagree on the LAC issue as India wants peace on the borders whereas China is once again insisting on long term perspective.

You cannot expect Chinese to be so naïve, not to understand the Govt’s mood particularly after what their Foreign Minsiter did in Pakistan at the OIC meet.

Wang after issuing a controversial remark on Kashmir at the OIC meet in Pakistan , went to Afghanistan and after the India visit he has gone to Nepal and has inked many agreements related to development projects with the Nepal Govt.

All this is an indicator of following ;

One. They are trying to bracket us with other South Asian nations as USA used to bracket India with Pakistan till a few years ago. Every US Govt official who came on a visit to India paid a visit to Pakistan also or vice versa. So, in that sense India is fast losing its status in South Asia. For China we are like any other South Asian country.

Two. Supporting Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir and speaking about it loud and clear during the meet is an indicator that China does not care whether you like it or not. Wang, China’s Foreign Minister came here on a visit within a few days of issuing a statement on Kashmir, wherein he supported Pakistan’s views, vindicates my view point; They do not care for our concerns and also have the cheek to come and talk to us. 

Now what should we be doing ?

Firstly, How does it matter if someone wants to bracket us with Pakistan.

But can the peace come because we wish for PEACE - Close our eyes and chant OM SHANTI or we need to build conditions that can bring peace on our borders. The more we look inwards, the more we will be hemmed in from all sides.

Peace does not happen automatically one has to strive hard to build peace. Hence if China wishes to bracket us with Pakistan or treats us like anyother South Asian Country then we must create conditions that it gives the importance we Indians deserve.