The speed with which Taliban has occupied territory and important cities one after the other, it has left many bewildered . The way things have unfolded in these few months, it is now amply clear that ;
One. Its an invasion by Pakistan and Pakistan regulars are involved in this like they were involved in 1947-48 when tribals attacked Kashmir at the behest of Pakis.
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The gradual shift in the balance of power from West to the East and USA, the sole superpower, no more interested in acting like a Monitor and prefers to work with Regional powers, has enhanced the competition among the major Regional powers. China meanwhile has systematically got into a position of Power to challenge USA atleast in Asia Pacific. It has armed forces numerically many times more than what India possesses. It has also developed its alliances all over in Indian Ocean, Pacific ocean and even as far as Africa and Latin America. It has signed Most Favoured Nation agreements with almost 150 nations.
Using its economic clout China has virtually woven a web around India. China is probably using the same strategy here in South Asia as was used by USA in Latin America. It considered Latin America as its back yard. The U.S. sought to secure its "backyard even if that meant extending support to dictators and despots. From 1870 onward, as the United States emerged as a major world power, the Monroe Doctrine would be used to justify a long series of U.S. interventions in Latin America. So, China, an emerging Superpower is also probably safe guarding its back yard in South Asia, with whatever means possible. It wishes to convey to all; Not A Fly Can Move Without Its Permission In This Region.
It would, therefore because of India’s size, its International status, its liberal and democratic society would be wary of it. Viewing from that perspective, China is likely to remain not just a competitor for India but a Rival state, so, any attempt by India to get closer to US and these naval exercises with USA and other Western Powers in Indian Ocean are going to be viewed as a threat by Chinese to its back yard.
As India’s economic and military profile grows wider, it would naturally face a range of intrastate and interstate security challenges, which it has to manage. The Energy security to sustain its growth, the security of its sea trading lanes, ports and security of even its allies and friends will have to be thought of. For instance Bhutan is a close ally of India with which India has a security accord, similarly with further growth it will have to bear the responsibility of security of smaller nations to stand firm against Chinese bullying.
In view of the above, the rivalry between India and China to enhance their influence , is likely to create problems for smaller countries of South Asia ; Nepal, Srilanka and Bangladesh which have traditionally been enjoying good relations with India. This tussle for influence will be fought not only in Himalayas but also in neighboring countries, implying that both the rivals are likely to deepen their involvement in these nations’ domestic politics.
If we look at these nations one by one we find that this rivalry as of now puts India in a much disadvantageous position vis a vis China and also puts these smaller countries in a precarious situation. India can now no more claim to be an unchallenged South Asian Power.
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Although South East Asia is becoming a major battle ground for India-China, US- China rivalry, with several small South Asian states been caught up in the strategic competition. However, it appears that USA is fast losing the field to China, not only in South Aisa but also in Central Asia. And the reasons are not difficult to find.
On 25 May Foreign Ministers of ASEAN nations gathered to have their first virtual meeting with Biden’s US Secy of State Bilken but due to some tech glitches it could not take place and thereafter within a week , all of them flew to China, got a red carpet welcome there and got a chance to meet individually with the Chinese foreign minister.
This sums up the whole story ; China is on a mission and Biden is confused with his priorities. Although Biden came with lot of good will and people hoped he would not be as erratic as his predecessor was but it appears he is utterly confused , lacks focus and so the goodwill is fast receding.
Add a commentSecularism is an Anathema.
It appears that the road to become a Secular country is always fraught with risks, particularly for a Muslim country .
The irony is, if Indians themselves are questioning its validity then how can one have any hope on these muslim nations of the subcontinent.
Despite the fact that in recent years Bangladesh has had a reasonably Good Govt which has helped the country tide over its many economic problems and decimated the Jamait E Islami responsible for the atrocities committed in 1970-71 with the help of Pakistani army, the fundamentalists keep organising themselves under different banners.
Now it is Hefazat –e-Islam Bangladesh, a hardline Islamist Group which staged violent protests against Mr Modi during his visit to Bangladesh in March and attacked Hindus there. The Bangladesh Govt which had been till now treating them with kid gloves, acted tough and arrested many of its cadre, which resulted in the break up of the core committee.
Hefazat-e-Islam has ample clout and can mobilize thousands in the streets to rally against secularism. In recent years, it successfully pressured Government into removing stories and poems by non-Muslim writers from school textbooks and into shifting the statue of Lady Justice away from the front of the Supreme Court. Hefazat-e-Islam was formed in 2010, comprising the teachers of several madrasas . It advocates the same which other islamist groups usually do.
It is to be seen as to how long the Govt of Bangladesh be able to keep its fundamentalists quiet.
This idea of Secularism, appears to be an anathema for all fundamentalists - be it Muslims or Hindu hardliners of the subcontinent. Its surprising that when the world has made such tremendous progress in the field of Information Technology and Space Tech and has virtually become a global village there are millions in the subcontinent who still prefer to look at things from the prism of religion.
The rise of fundamentalism in its neighbourhood, India must realise will only compound its security concerns.
Add a commentRestoring Peace in war torn Afghanistan is surely one of the most complex problems, as its not about finding solutions but because the parties involved in the dispute have little concern for lives. They can not think beyond their religion. So, despite thousands being displaced, killed, injured and Afghanistan turned into a rubble, one can still not see light at the other end of the tunnel.
After United States and Taliban signed a landmark agreement in Feb20 leading to a political settlement between Kabul and the Islamic insurgents wherein, it was decided tthat the U.S. forces were to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021, The new US President has now given strong indictaions that he would withdraw his forces by Oct21.
However, despite the agreement the peace has been elusive and Afghanistan has seen a horrifically violent few weeks. Nearly 400 security forces and civilians have been killed in April, according to New York Times, since November 2020. Nearly 200 people were killed during the first week of May alone, including students killed near their school recently in the worst attack in 2021 so far.
This violence is clearly an indicator to the various stake holders of what is in store and what Taliban is capable of, once the US leaves.
It would be naïve to believe that US Govt is not aware of the dangerous path it is treading as any withdrawal can set the whole region on fire like Syria and the increase in violence in and around the Afghan capital over the past year leaves no one in doubt about the Taliban’s intentions.
USA’s Justification.
Add a commentOur journey as a modern nation statestarted in 1947 with the historic speech byPandit Jawaharlal Nehru, with 95% illiteracy, barely any industry and transport system, armed forces that were divided due to partition lacking equipment was largely in disarray, if there were guns- then the dial sights were taken away by Pakistanis, making the guns ineffective, if there were files- maps were taken way by Pakistanis, if there were battalions, half the men had gone away to Pakistan and so on.