The great German statesman Bismarck had aptly remarked, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise learns from the mistakes of others.” 

So in that sense, General Naravane has rightly commented;

We should be ready for a Conventional war and learn lessons from the Ukraine war.

However, we can only be ready and prepare ourselves provided we derive Right lessons from this ongoing Russia – Ukraine war and execute them EARNESTLY.

At no stage we Indians must forget that We Have Two Rogue Nations as Neighbours To Deal With. Though war is the last option adopted by Nations after all other measures have failed to achieve the Foreign policy objective but it still remains a potent option for a rogue state/ ruler and this fact must never be lost sight of, that we have two such Rogue states adjoining us. The Indian military therefore must be prepared to fight a two front war and also keep in mind that Pakistan is not likely to remain weak forever and we may in future have to face a resurgent Pakistan. If we undermine these lessons as enumerated below , we may find oursleves in a tight spot.

One. The War Has Finally Changed the Mindset. This war thankfully has changed the mindset of many security experts serving and retired who have been writing and speaking that the current geo political situation does not allow a conventional war to take place. Last year also we were on the verge of a conventional war with China, but as it ended in disengagement through negotiations, this further lent to this mindset.

The Invasion by Russia has brought back the reality of conventional war. The military commanders are aware as to how this mindset has impacted the training and planning aspects over the years and they must address those at the earliest.

Two. You are alone. UNO, USA and no other country or Alliance will help you out when you are attacked. Yes, they may provide you weapon systems and financial help and also impose sanctions on the invader but that also depends on many factors. For instance, if China attacks India, China may not face the same kind of stringent sanctions as Russia is facing now. So, if the invader has done his homework well and insulated his economy from initial shock, the current geo – political situation emboldens rogue nations to take such steps as has been taken by Russia. 

Three.

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The sanctions imposed on Russia as an aftermath of invasion on Ukraine and India’s stand on the issue has put USA in a dilemma.

Ostensibly this cannot be hidden from US law makers and its security experts that the sanctions imposed on Russia and its weapon manufacturing companies will have an adverse impact on India’s defense capabilities as almost 50% of India's def hardware is imported from Russia and there are numerous other Joint ventures related to defense equipment which will be severely impacted.

The US decision makers would have also appreciated that sanctions on Russia will seriously imperil India’s operational efficiency which faces military threat from a much stronger enemy China with whom India had a bloody skirmish just a year ago at Galwan.

In addition to above they must also be conscious of the fact that over last two decades India has emerged as an undeclared Frontline state of US against its long term enemy China and is also an important member of Quad which is an important Anti China alliance.

The fact that USA did not impose any sanctions under CAATSA (COUNTERING AMERICA’S ADVERSARIES THROUGH SANCTIONS ACT) on India after it deployed S400 Air Def system imported from Russia whereas it did so against China and also against Turkey is a testimony that US treats India differently and it is quite possible that it may turn a Nelson’s eye towards India again on fulfilling its crucial military needs from Russia.

Biden , the US President must appreciate that a stronger India will be to its advanatge and if India needs US assistance, US can not undermine the fact that it also needs India on its side to deal with China in Indo - Pacific Region. 

But I think the above may only be possible if the war ends at the earliest and it does not lead to unprecedented levels of destruction and loss of civilian lives.

 India in last 70 years during many international conflicts not only stuck to strategic autonomy but it also stood for values without taking sides.

It did not make nuclear weapons despite being capable of it and despite its neighbors going nuclear because it felt nuclear weapons were dangerous for humanity. It firmly stood for nuclear disarmament. Finally when pushed to a corner by the powers it turned nuclear, but the powers never reacted to in the manner they reacted to Iran and Iraq. Because they felt that India is a responsible power and it stood for Values all these years.

It stood firmly against Apartheid and boycotted South Africa for many decades and also stood for Palestinians state hood. It went in for a war when Pakistani army was causing atrocities on innocent civilians of East Pakistan, dropped food for Srilankan Tamils who were fighting for Sri lankans fighting for their democratic rights in NE Region of Srilanka.

Times When Values were Compromised ;

Once when Chinese captured Tibet and it suffered.

And second time was when USSR, in 1979 moved its powerful army into Afghanistan, it could capture the land but could not subjugate its people. India once again stood with USSR.

The end result was USSR got disintegrated and India suffered immensely because of the rise in fundamentalism in the subcontinent. 

One is free to derive lessons from it.

Ukraine Crisis provides Opportunity To Take a Moral Stand.

Once again Ukrainian crisis has divided the world into two groups ; one with Russia and the other with Ukraine.

The longer the war continues the difficult it will become for Russia and it will then surely unleash all its military power to save itself from embarrassment. This will cause more destruction and more deaths of civilians.

Russia's powerful army may capture whole of Ukraine, like it captured Afghanistan but can it govern without the local support. ; like it happened in Afghanistan it may happen again , Russia may get a real boot on its back side by the people and this time Putin may be ousted as a disgraced leader and its people may suffer immense miseries due to the economic sanctions.

If India at that point of time changes its stance, it would be too late and too little.

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Now that India has avoided going against Russia publicly and abstained from voting in UN Security council on the proposal brought by US, its implications will surely be felt on many aspects. However, what would be the intensity of those will only depend on How things unfold in due course of time.

Notwithstanding the above, the following may feel the heat ;

1. Fissures in Quad. When other members of quad ; Japan, USA and Australia have unequivocally criticized Russia’s invasion, India is the only member which has avoided doing this. It must be noted that USA , Japan, Australia have already signed bilateral security agreements leaving India aside. India has also kept itself away from the sanctions imposed on Russia. So, this leaves India alone to face belligerent China both in Indian Ocean and on its land borders. India might be having its own reasons for not criticisng Russia but there is all likelihood that this may result in a rift in Quad. However, things would become clear once the next round of Quad meeting takes. Moreover, we must also need to remember that the members of Quad also need India as much as India needs Quad. 
2. Strategic Relationship with USA. The successive Govts right from the time India conducted nuclear tests nurtured a strategic relationship with US which in recent years brought the two largest democracies closer whose relations traditionally have remained estranged. USA was fast emerging as one of the major suppliers of sophisticated weapons but if this war prolongs and India remains firm with the same stance, it is quite likely that the relations may nose dive.
3. No one can miss a point why Putin called up Mr Modi just a few hours after meeting Pakistan’s PM who was on a Two day Tour to Russia. In recent times Russia and Pakistan are cosing up and Russia has declared that it does not have any inhibitions in supplying weapon systems to Pakistan. They have also signed a few bilateral agreements regarding developing an Oil pipeline. So, Putin has perhaps given clear indication.
4. India’s Make in India Programme may suffer a setback as it cannot become a success unless India has access to better technology. Can China and Russia provide that ?.
5. The sanctions imposed on Russia will have a severe impact on India’s economy, as well. Oil prices can shake up many aspects of our economy.
6. Russia accounts for almost 49% of our arms imports, although it has dropped significantly but over the years this has evolved into joint research , development and production. Thus there are many joint ventures that are underway ; development of stealth frigate, joint production of light utility helicopters, leasing of nuclear submarine, provisioning of 20000 assualt rifles etc , in view of wide array of sanctions imposed by USA , many of these may suffer setback.

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