During the entire course of transition of power in Afghanistan, last month, the two embassies that remained operational were; Chinese and Russian. Pakistan is happy that it has placed a Govt in Kabul whose strings are firmly in its hands. The world may overlook that but for India it means trouble. The ISI has created scores of Jehadi tanzeems (groups) who apparently look to be different but they are all hand in glove and are firmly controlled by ISI. They can be rightly termed as Pakistani deep assets which serve its foreign policy objectives.

China and Pakistan together are likely to fill that vacant space in Afghanistan and also in Central Asia and Russia is also trying to hook on to this congregation.

India is now frantically looking around to salvage the situation as recent developments in Afghanistan impinges on its security. But as a matter of fact it's not only Afghanistan that's a cause of concern but our lackadisical approach towards our security as a whole, which is now troubling us.

Aggressive China a Cause of Concern.

A belligerent China, on the other hand, has now announced new maritime rules in order to control the entry of foreign vessels in what Beijing calls “Chinese territorial waters”. The move is expected to have far-reaching consequences for passage of vessels, both commercial and military, in the disputed South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. It will take effect from 1st September.

Australia and China post covid have got into a trade war wherein China has imposed ban on many items that it imported from Australia.

Srilanka an Indian ocean island has gone into an economic turmoil which is likely to further drive this island nation into Chinese lap.

China is fast catching up as the largest trading partner of Bangladesh and Srilanka replacing India. China is also fast emerging as the major bilateral donor to these countries including Nepal .

China and India are engaged in a tug of war as far as influence in Maldives is concerned which can always shift in favour of China with the change in power in Maldives.

In 2019, Bangladesh gave China access to two of its largest ports—Chittagong and Mongla, China already accounts for around 70% of arms imports between 2010–2019, it has entered into crucial sectors of Bangladesh like communication, defence manufacturing and infrastructure development.

SriLanka has already leased out a sea port to China which is being used by Chinese navy.

Myanmar has already provided China a few ports.

China has consistently shown keen interest in engaging with South Asian countries as it provides them an entry to the Indian Ocean as well as it helps to strategically constrain India.  

Russia Redefining its Strategic Interests: Getting Closer to Pakistan

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The long wait.

Last year feburary Air Marshal Philip Rajkumar (Retd), an 80 years old airforce pilot became the oldest man to fly the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas. When spoken to, he expressed his delight , Not because the retired IAF officer, was the oldest man to fly the Tejas But because he had seen the aircraft mature into a full-fledged operational fighter from the days of the drawing board. As a test pilot, he was in the Tejas hot seat for the fighter’s first 98 flights as the program director of the project way back in 90s.

It was in 1983 that the Government of India, then led by Indira Gandhi, rolled out a project to build a new LCA as a replacement for the Russian MiG-21s. The plan was to carry out the first flight of the new aircraft by 1994. However, the first prototype of LCA flew only in 2001. It was at the time that the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee named the LCA “Tejas”. In December 2013, the Tejas got Initial Operational Clearance and, in 2019, the IAF was given the first aircraft with Final Operational Clearance.

This tells us as to how lengthy, tedious and frustrating is the route to develop and manufacture a sophisticated war machinery indigenously. This is the story of almost all military equipment that India tried manufacturing locally ; the Arjun TANK,the Prithvi, Agni , Akash missiles, the Pinakas, etc .They have taken a long time to reach the customer and sadly the world did not wait for them and by the time they get inducted the technology gets obsolete and the customer once again puts up a fresh demand LIST, after all, the enemies that he has to fight have already moved ahead and are equipping themselves with the latest.

Now that the Cabinet Committee on Security approved a Rs 48,000-crore deal for 83 Tejas, which include 73 Mark 1A versionsNAND 10X mK 1, which will be provided by the Govt managed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Implying each aircraft is costing almost 500 crores. This is over and above thousands of crores already spent on its Development.

It is hell of a lot of money and so as a tax payer, it is our responsibility to evaluate and examine as to how our money is being spent by the Govt and whether the tall claims made by the Govt and its officials meet our security needs. More over, why does Govt owned factories take so much time that may lead to cost escalation and even then no action is taken against the erring manufacturer. Unless the tax payer starts objecting to this gross mismangement , the Govt owned manufacturer will have no concern for the Quality and Schedule of supply.

We must remember that gone are the days when wars were fought in a battle field of few sq kms or on borders, and the citizens could go on doing their job unconcerned about what is happening on the front. With improvement in technology , Today's armed conflicts look quite different: city centers and residential areas can become battle fields. Wars can now move into the lives, cities and homes of ordinary people in a more vicious way than ever before, and impact our livelihoods and occupations.

In view of the above, as regards the Airforce, we as tax payers need to understand following ;

1. What are the Capabilities of IAF and What are the Grey Areas.

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In the last article titled ; " India’s difficult neighbourhood "( https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-difficult-neighourhood )the looming economic crisis in Srilanka was discussed. The following was highlighted ; .

“With the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation in Srilanka worsened, largely due to the significant loss of tourism earning, taken together; diminishing foreign exchange reserves, the debts, the circumstances have put Sri Lanka in a vulnerable position. The bggest worry was that Sri Lanka cannot address its problems as merely a domestic political issue. Tackling Sri Lanka’s external sector vulnerabilities, including the shortage of foreign currency, will require support from external parties, whether China, India, the United States, or even international organizations such as the IMF or World Bank. Thus far, Sri Lanka has excessively relied on China to tackle its external sector vulnerabilities while economic relations with India seem to remain stagnant. At the same time, Sri Lanka tries not to irritate India. Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka is now struggling hard to balance between China, India, and domestic nationalists, all the while trying to save the country from a potential economic crisis. Thus far, it does not look easy”.

The Economic Crisis led to Declaration of Emergency

Barely two months have passed since we wrote this and the Govt of Srilanka has now declared an emergency. Sri Lanka’s Parliament on Monday (September 6) approved a national emergency. The government said the emergency was required to check soaring prices of food and hoarding of essentials by a “food mafia”. As expected the Opposition called this action to be taken “in bad faith, with an ulterior motive of stifling the fundamental rights of the people and a move towards authoritarianism.

In Parliament, Opposition members argued that there was no need for an emergency, as other legislation were available to check hoarding and cap food prices.

The Vicious Circle.

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Appears that Indian External Affairs Ministry and the Military are working in Silos

This is not the first time that the External Affairs Ministry of the Govt of India did not bother to take the opinion of the military or if it all it took the view, it did not care for it and the Nation has to pay a heavy price for it.

One instance was way back in 90s when the Govt of India eager to have peace at its borders signed an Agreement with China. The 1993 agreement, that created the LAC(Line of Actual Control), signed by the two countries to maintain peace and tranquillity did not define where the line lies. As a result China in last few years has moved the LAC as India understood it after 1993 to well inside Indian territory. This ranges from 1.5km in some places to 4.5km in others. And as it has been happening since last 50 years, China has offered a legal argument to justify its new positions on the ground. It says ; The Line was not defined.

And why did it happen because the then external affairs ministry did not pay heed to the army advise which was insisting that the Line must be called as Line of Existing Control so that the positions could be frozen and there is no change hereafter. But the external affairs ministry wizards did not pay heed.

Once again it has happened , on the issue of Taliban.

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