India Trying to take Centerstage.

Nearly three months after the Taliban takeover of Kabul, India has finally woken up and is trying to assert itself.  India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval will host meeting of NSAs of neighbouring countries on November 10 to discuss Afghanistan’s future and how to deal with threats to security emanating from developments there..

This meeting has come as a pleasant surprise because the troika PCR(Pakistan-China-Russia) was all this while neglecting India and keeping it away from anything to do with Afghanistan, despite the fact that right from 2000- till Pakistan captured Kabul in 2021 with the help of its proxy –Taliban, India had played a big role in the development of Afghanistan. New Delhi had been involved in the construction of key infrastructure projects in the country including the parliament building and the Salma dam investing $3 billion in various reconstruction activities.

What will it Achieve.

This meeting will surely achieve following ;

The meeting will affirm that India has a legitimate security interest in Afghanistan.

It will thwart Pakistan’s evil designs to exclude India.

Although it is too early to claim this But it’s a first assertive step to push yourself at the centerstage in bringing a holistic solution to the Afghanistan’s imbroglio.

This would place Beijing in a precarious situation because its non-participation will send a negative signal, and its presence may not please Pakistan.

The presence of NSAs or their equivalents from (CIS) Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Iran and Russia will dent Pakistan’s propaganda that India is a Game spoiler and is working against the peace process in Kabul. The presence of so many NSAs will give credence to India’s fears from Radical Islam., rather, Each country participating in the meet  has similar  fears of radical Islam. Most of the former Soviet Republics have little to do with political Islam and have secular governments. Many of them face threats at home from radical groups and want to make sure that these groups do not cross into their countries. The majority of the CIS states are on the same page with India, Russia and Iran on Afghanistan.

Conclusion.

This meet is being organised at a time when ISIS-K has given some solid jolts to Taliban by striking in Kabul ,indicating that Taliban is not yet in a position of control and remains vulnerable even in Kabul . With many such groups jostling for power in Afghanistan the concern of all these NSAs meeting at Delhi is genuine and similar.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s absence will expose its duplicity but Pakistan has been Running with the hare and hunting with the hound for far too long and may be Insha allah its high time that it is punished by the world for Its Duplicity on Terrorism.

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State-run Xinhua news agency of China reported that a new law related to management of borders has been passed. It said ;

The law, would become operational from January 1 next year, and it stipulates that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the People's Republic of China are sacred and inviolable".

The state shall take measures to safeguard territorial integrity and land boundaries and guard against and combat any act that undermines territorial sovereignty and land boundaries.

The law also stipulates that the state shall take measures to strengthen border defence, support economic and social development as well as opening-up in border areas, improve public services and infrastructure in such areas, encourage and support people's life and work there, and promote coordination between border defence and social, economic development in border areas, it said.

China has already resolved the boundary disputes with 12 other neighbours, whereas it has kept India and its ally Bhutan on tenter hooks.

However, On October 14, China and Bhutan signed an MOU firming up a roadmap for expediting the boundary negotiations, to speed up the border talks and establishment of diplomatic ties.

This law has come amidst the tension on border and therefore is an indication that ;

One. This law will have far reaching implications on the ongoing Sino-India border dispute. China is going to harden its stance against India and offer a carrot to Bhutan so that the small land locked Bhutan either severs security ties with India or makes it redundant in order to maintain its territorial integrity and please its more aggressive neighbor ; China.

Two. The Sino-Indian border is not likely to remain peaceful in near term and incursions into Indian Territory will be used by Chinese to arm twist Indian Govt whenever needed.

Three. It is also an indicator of the Chinese Govt’s resolve towards defending its borders and developing border regions. It also makes sure that No leader in future would be able to make compromises without its political implications.

Two years back Trump, the thenPresident of USA, invited India to play an active role in Afghanistan and even mocked Modi for his silence on this matter, thereafter, in 2021,  India was not even invited by Russia to attend a meeting that was to decide the fate of Afghanistan.

Barely a month had gone after that meeting , Kabul was captured by Pakistan’s proxy Taliban. During this Blitzkrieg of Taliban, when every Nation had closed down their embassies in Kabul and escaped to safe havens, there were only two embassies which were functional ; Russian and Chinese.

India allowed itself to be a Non player in this drama played in its neighbourhood, despite its own security concerns.

Although the troika; Pakistan, China and Russia (PCR) was able to ensure Taliban victory but garnering world support in its favour is becoming little difficult. And so since then they are devising newer techniques and strategies to legitimize the Taliban regime.

Sometimes they claim that this Taliban regime is different from the previous one and when they find that its real face is getting exposed they appeal recognition for Taliban for the peace in the subcontinent and when nothing has worked they are now demanding funds to meet the humanitarian crisis.

The recent meet organised by this troika in Moscow which was attended by India and the Taliban Dy PM also was once again an attempt to somehow legitimise the Taliban regime even if it was in the guise of Humanitarian crisis.

The Humanitarian crisis is a facade behind which lies  their evil design to legitmise the Taliban regime. 

Does India realise this that sharing table with Taliban amounts to that ?

Was the PCR not aware that once US withdraws and Taliban is allowed to capture Afghanistan there will surely be a crisis?

Why did the troika support such a regime which does not have the means to Govern and is a terror organization which will cause innumerable miseries to the minorities who do not believe in the Sunni Islam.

The Shia hazras are escaping, the Hindus and Sikhs are running away and their places of worship are being vandalized in Afghanistan. Recently , on 5^th Oct some 15 terrorists entered Gurdwara and tied up the guards. The Hindu and Sikh community are in a dire situation and have to practically make a choice between options of "converting to Sunni Islam or run away" from Afghanistan, . Already hundreds of them have reached India.

And surprisingly the troika(PCR) is hell bent to legitimize this cruel Regime.

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It was in 2013 that a 21 day standoff between India and China in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector(DOB) in eastern Ladakh took place, thereafter the next year, the two sides were locked in another standoff in the Chumar sector of Ladakh, then, in 2017, the two countries were involved in a  tense standoff in the Doklam region , when Chinese troops started constructing a road and then the Ladakh standoff in 2020.

It appears as if Chinese are observing some sort of ritual every 2-3 years.

These standoffs obviously point a finger at the utility of the peace agreement of 1993 and 1996. 

What has changed in last 15 years that China has to resort to all these intrusions.

Is India only responsible to carry the burden of these Agreements ?

If perception of LAC is the major issue of difference then should China not honour India's percpetion.

Why the Intrusions ?

Although, these skirmishes are not new and they have a long history but now the Chinese  come prepared for a long haul. But why now, when peace agreements have been signed barely 15 years ago.

One. Is it part of some change in Chinese foreign policy ? (China has been on the diplomatic offensive against many countries; Australia, Philippines etc).

Second, Are they trying to deflect attention of their people from issues inside the country, which have had an adverse impact on the country’s economy ?.

As regards its aggressive policy in South China Sea, one can easily find a reason, But, why against India, where most of the strategic experts and successive Govts considered them to be just a Competitor instead of an enemy or a rival.

If we place ourselves in their position, we would be easily able to comprehend the reasons ;

One. 80 percent of China's energy imports and 39.5 percent of China's total trade passes through the South China Sea. China is a net importer of oil and all its ports are along South China Sea. The world’s 85% trade takes place through seas and so any country whose economic interest grows beyond its frontiers has to make sure that its sea lanes are protected.

Two. In order to avoid being solely dependent on sea routes and as China is a net importer of oil which comes from West Asia, A secured land route from Pakistan is therefore very important. Hence the link from Gwadar port through POK becomes important for China. so, it must ensure , given the bottle necks it passes through, are adequately guarded.

Three. So, all these smaller nations Like Bangladesh, Mynmmar , Srilanka are important as they provide access to Indian Ocean and Pakistan becomes strategically important for its land route to China.

Four. India is the only country in this region that is big enough in terms of resources and size to challenge China. Hence, These small states around India also become important so that India’s influence beyond its shores is marginalized and it is unable to challenge.

So, now the pattern becomes clearer.

First surround India through a string of ports which provide China access to Indian Ocean, so as to reduce India’s dominance in Indian Ocean. There after , marginalise its influence in this region using its deep pockets by buying the poor neighbours to virtual submission. Three, develop a highway to connect everyone, four finally target India’s soft belly ; its long inhospitable borders and keep it busy guarding them.

In these last 20 years or so, China has systematically executed this plan and it is unlikely that it will loosen its grip now and let India regain its position in South Asia. SARRC is virtually dead now.

It’s a catch 22 situation for India, either it lets China into it and lose its supremacy or let this association die its natural death.

China has achieved its political objective by occupying strategically important places to safeguard its interest and proving its hegemony over India by undermining its regional status and also secured the 1959 claim line, without firing a bullet and without any bloodshed, primarily because we could not foresee this happening.

China therefore does not have any motivation or reason to go for war.

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