Japan and Australia have RECENTLY signed an agreement to cooperate closely on defence as a step to bolster security ties against the backdrop of China's rising military and economic might in the Pacific region.

The Australian PM while emphasizing the need of the agreement said ;

The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), Japan's first with any country, will allow the Australian and Japanese militaries to work seamlessly with each other on defence and humanitarian operations.

Morrison further said. “Our special strategic partnership is stronger than it has ever been, reflecting our shared values, our commitment to democracy and human rights and our common interests in a free, open and resilient Indo-Pacific region.”

A few months ago Australia , UK and USA had signed a similar security agreement called AUKUS . The three countries in September ’21 formed a defence alliance, inorder to confront strategic tensions in the Pacific where China-US rivalry is growing.

What are its Implications?

All these treaties have come up with an aim to check China’s belligerence in Pacific Ocean.

But the basic question that arises is ; Is n’t this a duplication when there is already Quad in place?

It is important to note that Quad which has four members ; USA , Japan, Australia and India.

However, Its members have now signed bilateral security agreements with each other leaving India high and dry.

Perhaps this is done keeping India’s reservations on the Objectives of Quad. India did not want Quad to be focused against any country. As a result in the objectives of Quad the member nations avoided naming China.

However, the major concern of all the members was primarily; China’s growing belligerence.

Do these treaties leave India in NO WHERE to Go position, in case of a crisis?

Despite the fact that Chinese for last many years have been bullying India, despite the fact that in last 20-30 years China has modernized and equipped its armed forces to such a level that its hard for India to challenge China militarily, all by itself. Although on land it may still be able to do so but surely in waters it cannot, China is churning out warships in hundreds and even US cannot match that speed.

Despite the fact that India now finds itself being challenged by China in its own backyard as China has either replaced or soon going to replace India as the largest trading partner of Bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka etc.

Despite the fact that China has been occupying India’s territory and has now in last few years have even established camps on our side of LAC. We have had 14 rounds of talks and they all ended in stale mate.

Despite the fact that the erstwhile CDS ; Gen Rawat had warned of fighting a war on two and half fronts and India’s inability to do so on multiple fronts.

India is still reluctant to take China head on and sign a defense pact or name China, is really intriguing.

What is stopping us then?

We do not wish to ally ourselves with a Group whose sole agenda is Anti China - Implying we still prefer to be Non Aligned.

Or, is it because India has a roaring trade relationship with China worth almost 100 billion dollars and despite all the border tensions, China is the largest trading partner of India.

Or, We do not wish to antagonize our ally like Russia who is now friend of China but is anti west.

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If one looks with a different perspective, one would notice that since the capture of Afghanistan by Taliban, that was assisted by Pakistan , the region has become a headache for Pakistan rather than for rest of the world. The US withdrawal has created a huge challenge for Taliban as well as Pakistan. This has happened because ;

One.  Pakistan Generals expected that once USA withdraws and Taliban captures Afghanistan , they along with Russia and China and may be Biden, a friend of Pakistan would be able to get the Taliban regime recognized  and the funds would start flowing in, they had expected that after the capture, they all will be able to go to the Bank laughing. But this did not happen.  Although China has released some funds but that’s not going to be enough to meet the needs of a country which has been ravaged by war for more than 40 years. Moreover, no nation would like to invest without the regime being recognized by the Global community. This must have surely become an irritant between Taliban and Pakistan and this irritant will further drive a wedge between Pakistan and Taliban and its other associate groups. No wonder Pakistan in order to control things at its western borders must be diverting lot of money to help Taliban , that it gets from world community for other purposes like ; fighting corona etc.

Two. The attacks by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) on Taliban and by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on Pakistani forces across the border have increased. The two groups have claimed number of attacks, in recent months including suicide and targeted attacks — all pointing to the existence of robust terrorist infrastructure in the Af-Pak region. Although Taliban denies that ISKP has a “serious” presence in Afghanistan but Pakistan claims that the TTP is operating from Afghanistan and it is hand in glove with ruling Taliban. Since the Doha Agreement of February 2020, the TTP network upped the ante and merged at least 12 major groups in August, under Noor Wali Mehsud.

Emulating Taliban, the TTP has been positioning itself as a nationalist group against the “un-Islamic” Pakistan army and has demonstrated its prowess by attacking Pakistani forces at will, mostly across the tribal belt and in cities like Quetta and Islamabad.

Three. Pakistan Govt facing the heat arbitrarily closed the border crossings and also there are reports of meting out bad treatment to Afghan migrants at the borders, inaddition to above they are continuing to fence the border to separate Pashtuns. All of this including the inability to get diplomatic recognition to Taliban, and failing to get financial support for Taliban must have created fissures in relations between Pakistan and Taliban.

Four. In addition to above, the Baloch groups have also carried out numerous attacks on Pakistani forces during July-September. In 2021, three big attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan have further upset Pakistan’s efforts in bringing China into Afghanistan.

Five. The TTP attacks on the Pakistan army has compelled the Pakistan army to use force in the tribal belt and that must have surely strained its relations with the locals. And now With no foreign agencies to blame and the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, TTP attacks are an embarrassment for the Pakistan army. so Pakistan is being hemmed in from all sides.

Conclusion.

India must use all the means, that it has at its disposal, to ensure that Taliban does not get recognition and No funds are provided to them. The world peace and peace in India hinges upon this. A Strong Taliban would serve the purpose of Pakistani Generals.

Had US withdrawal been orderly, Pakistan would have surely by now got Biden's nod and Taliban regime would have been recognised. 

Lastly, as always, the calculations of Pakistani Generals went astray. They have a long history of trying their hands at misadventures. In 1947-48 they thought that a surprise tribal attack followed by Pak army would get them Kashmir, in 1965 they expected that by infiltrating large number of Pakistan army regulars into valley would lead to an uprising by Kashmiris which would make it difficult for Indian army to defend Kashmir but they failed on both the counts. Once again, in 1999 at Kargil they expected that the world community would come to their rescue and they will be able to place Kashmir on the top priority by occupying dominating heights across Line of Control, but once again they failed.

Although, Pakistan has been failing in its attempts but its Generals have not given up yet, they will continue to be deceitful and treacherous. They conveniently all these years fooled the West and may even be able to do it again.

India therefore must adhere to one policy as regards Pakistan, despite the pressure from West; BE A GOOD ENEMY.

No Talks, No trade, No Relations with Pakistan. Even if Pakistan gets doomed.

India must avoid at all costs the temptation of being a DOOBTEY KO TINKEY KA SAHARA.

A poor, weak, deprived, disheveled, messy Pakistan will always be Good for India’s security and a strong Pakistan will cause more pain.

As the events have unfolded in last few years , it is now very clear that this world is now neither bipolar, as in the Cold War, nor unipolar, as it was after the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor it is truly multi polar.

However, one can still not miss the point that there are two major powers the US and China, who are locked in a rivalry and the rest of the countries are realigning themselves to this reality. As the relationships today are more intertwined because of the economic interdependence , it is very unlikely that this may ever deteriorate into a full fledged conventional war. Notwithstanding the above there is likely to be an intense strategic competition and also mistrust.

Given the hegemonistic manner in which China is operating , there is little doubt that its security profile will expand and that would encompass India’s neighbourhood as well. After the fall of Afghanistan, captured by Pakistan, a proxy of China, it is certain that a China-dominated Asian security and economic order may become inimical to India’s interests .

It is therefore, essential that India takes effective measures in terms of security and integrating its neighbors economically.

This integration is only possible when India itself is self reliant and strong enough to instill confidence amongst its small neighbours. A weak India will not be able to withstand this challenge.

The risk of China-Pakistan collusive action and Pakistan’s increasing significance in China’s global strategy is real , albeit remote. However, it requires our military strategy to plan and develop credible force that can deal with a worst-case scenario of a two-front war.

However, the rate at which China is manufacturing attack aircrafts and warships ,( it has even surpassed USA), it is unlikely that a conventional approach can ever help us matching China in terms of equipment holding.

Hence the following needs to be done ;

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