In 1949, after Chinese took over Tibet and thereafter started claiming more land inside Indian territory the then Indian Govt thought that by waiting and watching and through diplomatic means they will be able to resolve the problem. But it did not happen in that way and finally India suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Chinese in 1962. It took 13 years for that to happen. We are once again waiting and watching the events in Afghanistan.

Our dealings with Pakistan have also been along similar lines. We waited for Pakistan to reciprocate our Good will gestures  - signed Indus water sharing treaty, signed Tashkent agreement and returned all captured territory including Hajipir Pass, let them off the hook again by signing Simla agreement and returned PWs, Went dancing to Lahore with a troupe in 1999 and did not go beyond LC and capture important features during Kargil war to guarantee safety of the Leh Highway for ever.

I think we have behaved worse than Prithviraj Chauhan.

Despite all these good will gestures Pakistan relentlessly pursued with devotion - a policy of bleeding and dismembering India. Pakistan is a small country vis a vis India and so India could deploy all the resources at its disposal against Pakistan and defeat them. How long the God can be kind to Indians ?

However the situation has now changed.

One. Pakistan now has a trained force of thousands of battle hardened Jehadis led by Taliban who can cause heavy damage. They may not be good at conventional warfare but their ability to wage guerilla warfare cannot be undermined.

Secondly. No one is interested in Nation Building. Pakistan is not interested in creating a Nation state in Afghanistan, it is interested in having a safe backyard which will provide it a Strategic depth and an armed militant force which can tire India and get them Kashmir.

Third. Back to Square One. After fighting terrorism for more than three decades India is once again back to square one. Because USA and Pakistan are now hell bent to prove that Taliban is not a terror group but a Political party of locals , sons of soil who just want to establish Islamic rule.

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The world is aware that Pakistan’s establishment that includes its Govt, military , its ISI and Beuraucracy are all hand in glove with hundreds of terror organizations but surprisingly the US report on terror still does not make a mention that Pakistan is a terrorist nation. UNO has declared number of Pakistan based organizations and individuals as terrorists and has banned them but all of them are freely operating from Pakistan’’s soil and Pakistan is still being rewarded and not declared as a Terrorist nation.

There is nothing in this article that is not in public domain and not known to the world leaders.  Lets examine this Pakistan based terror network which the world leaders find it difficult to see.

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There is a rapid change in the geo-political and resultant security environment in the world. With USA not willing to play Global Policing role, any more, the importance of regional powers and regional alliances has grown.

The security situation is not only fluid but has become a little complex, the Rashtriya Rakshamantri recently emphasized during the launch of Def start up challenge 5. He further emphasized that ; considering these fast changes India has to focus on self reliant def manufacturing industry.

As No Nation can ever emerge as a strong player in armament which is weak in manufacturing, the Make in India vision becomes important.

Defense manufacturing and acquisition of weapon systems is a complex process and India which is one of the largest importer of weapon systems despite making huge noises for last 7 decades about indigenization of weapon systems will have to take concrete steps rather than relying on rhetorics.

Notwithsatnding the above, the current Govt has shown reasonable urgency and focus on this aspect and has taken few steps ;

One. To support defence modernisation, in the budget 2021-22 the defence capital outlay has been increased by 18.75% from the preceding year. This is the highest ever increment in the last 15 years.

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The US retreat and subsequent invasion of Afghanistan and its capture by Pakistan using its proxy Taliban has not only exposed the inability of the world to comprehend the multi dimensions of the ongoing religious war but has also emboldened hundreds of Islamic organizations and also vindicated Pakistan’s policy of using terror Groups as a tool of foreign policy.

Many other States have Indulged in Proxy War

Although almost all the States have at some time or the other waged a proxy war. President Dwight D Eisenhower once called proxy wars ‘the cheapest insurance in the world’, while former Pakistani President Zia-ul- Haq deemed them necessary to ‘keep the pot boiling’ has proved to be an irresistible strategic allurement for nations and Pakistan has virtually succeeded in this.

However, these Proxies used by Pakistan are for a different purpose and motivation; they all are striving for establishment of Islamic rule through Islamic Shariat. The foot soldiers are indoctrinated at Madrasas by Maulanas located in Pakistan and sent to fight for Islam. They are challenging the global community in the guise of Religious freedom and destroying others religious freedom.

Essential Features of Proxy War

The proxy war has no clear boundaries, leads to conflicts between communities, encourages foreign interventions and grants legitimacy to violence and its difficult to prove. In this conflict non-state actors become a major force .  Everywhere, be it Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq , Afghanistan this use of Proxies has led to a potential increase in the engagement of proxy strategies by states.

The Support for a proxy often leads other states to back their own favored horse, which worsens the overall conflict. For instance ; Lebanon, Syria and now Afghanistan where too many nations get involved and start meddling in and supporting their own horses/ factions. This, in turn, also increases the independence of the proxies as they could threaten to turn to other powers if they felt unsupported.

So, even if Pakistan due to its deteriorating economic situation may in future want to stop sponsoring proxies, it will not be able to shut the doors for all the terror groups that thrive on its soil. There is now a huge huge eco system that manages these hundreds of Jehadi groups, and if it tries to do that, it will be at its own peril.  

Can The Sponsorer distance himself from the Proxy?

If the sponsoring state believes its proxy is no longer a useful military tool—because the proxy has shown itself to be an ineffective fighting force for the main military aim the state sponsorer—the sponsorer is likely to draw down its investment. In Kashmir many such Tanzeems who could not deliver fell out of favour of ISI.

However, Pakistan over a period of 40 years has acquired the ability of creating numerous proxy groups and Taliban has now emerged as a formidable Proxy group. It is also possible that the proxies may get disinterested and abandon their sponsors, refuse to continue receiving support from them, or distance themselves particularly when the relationship has shown itself no longer beneficial to the proxy or, more importantly, the war/ sponsorship appears to be a barrier to key goals the proxy wants to pursue,

This can be a possibility in India because India is  amongst the top economies of the world and provides numerous opportunities of growth. It is also a vibrant democracy which does not stifle any ones voice/ opposition. The manner in which millions of Afghans tried escaping after the Taliban take over is an indication that even amongst the Muslims there is a large percentage of population who aspires to live in freedom and grow economically.

Hence, if the Communal environment remains healthy in India and it continues to grow economically the chances are that the local proxies may break that relation. For instance in Kashmir, where the locals are no more interested in fighting and as a result Pakistan has to create Proxies from within its own population. The LET, JEM etc are largely drawing its men from Pakistan and not from Kashmir.

The Unique Features of Religious war against India.

Pakistan over a period of 40 years fighting Russians, Americans and Indians using its proxies has created an eco system which has certain unique features. These have to be identified while preparing a strategy to deal with this Proxy war.

One. Choking is Impossible. There is no dearth of funds, with the Proxies and choking them is not going to serve any purpose. They can sustain themselves by generating enough funds using fake currency, through hawala market, through drug trade . One may make transfer of funds difficult but to choke them is going to be impossible, so hurting them economically may not be a sole solution, yes it can be a part of a holistic solution. However, Pakistan as a Sponsorer can be choked by International community and compelled to take action against these proxies. Moreover with Afghanistan now in its bag, opium trade is likely to flourish.

Two. Human Resource will never be a problem. These Proxy groups draw their soldiers and leaders from a society which is not interested in producing Engineers, Doctors, Managers and scholars and they have little interest in setting up industries and business enterprises. Their sole purpose is to spread Islamic Sharia rule. They come from Madrasas and streets of Pakistan where modern education has little importance. Jehad itself has become an occupation. Therefore, there will never be any shortage of human resource to them. Astonishingly, even educated scholars have joined their ranks for the spread of Islam.

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