India has been consistently one of the largest weapon importers, whereas China in this same time frame has emerged as the second largest manufacturer of weapons. It manufactures now more war ships per year than even US.

But this is changing , as being claimed , we have just signed a deal with Phillipines for exporting Brahmos , manufactured as a joint venture with Russians and India’s arms exports from 200 million dollars in 2016 have gone up to 154 billion dollars courtesy this deal with Phillipines.

It now clealry appears that there is more interest now by the Govt in ensuring that India becomes an exporter of weapons and in that sense the Def Expo 2022 held in Gujarat in Oct with the theme ‘ Only India’ may help India in emerging as a weapon exporter. There is also by the MOD a great amount of emphasis on the consumer i.e armed forces to buy certain items manufactured within India and from time to time they have been releasing the list of items that need to be procured locally. In addition to above, in times to come if right environment is provided the Defence corridors in Coimbatore and another one in UP may go a long way in enabling India to manufacture High tech weapon systems.

So far so good, however, manufacturing the weapon systems is not easy and can not be compared with manufacturing and selling of cars , Because ;

One. Weapon systems are high technology complex systems that become obsolete very fast and by the time the manufacturer gets one into the market after spending colossal amount of money and time on research work and development the adversary might come out with a system with better technology or your adversary might have bought that from the market.  For instance,

1. It took almost 25000 crores to develop MBT Arjun, Over a period of 3 decades and it has only helped Indian army to equip barely 4-5 regiments. As a result, during this period, inorder to fill the gap as the Pakis had acquired better tanks, we had to import T 90 Tanks which ultimately became the MBT of Indian army and we named it BHISHMA.
2. The same happened with INSAS rifle.    In 1998, the first INSAS rifles were displayed at the Republic Day parade with lot of fanfare. But, barely 14 years later, in 2015 the Indian government had to replace many INSAS rifles with AK-47s, after it found that the complaints could no longer be shoved under the carpet. During the 1999 Kargil War there were complaints of jamming & the magazine of the rifle cracking due to the cold. There was also a problem of oil being sprayed into the eye of the operator. Some injuries during firing practice were also reported. Similar complaints were also received from the Nepalese Army. In August 2005, after they lost 43 soldiers in a clash with Maoists, a Nepalese Army spokesman called the rifle substandard. As expected, The Indian embassy, immediately released a statement rejecting the complaint and attributed it to improper use, it also offered training for the rifle’s correct use. In November 2014, the CRPF requested to drop the INSAS as their standard rifle due to problems with reliability. So, finally when the complaints and criticism became too much for the Govt , two decades later, The Govt is now  planning with the help of Russians to manufacture new assault rifles for the Indian army. This implies, that the money spent on R & D of INSAS has gone down the drain as you are importing the technology and that must have also come with a cost. How could a product so well planned with the scientists calling it a wonderful weapon 15 years back , turned into a liability? Have our R& D facilities improved now?

Two. Weapon systems are not like soaps which can be sold to anyone within the country and outside , The weapon manufacturer has to sell the product only to the armed forces ; own or foreign.  As a result, the private companies which have been roped into development of weapon systems have to be helped extensively by the Govt ; right from the Research stage to marketing. The Companies and the Govt have to put in colossal amount of money in their development. That’s why, Arms transfers become an important foreign policy tool and a crucial dimension of world politics. Conventional arms transfers usually carry with them a number of military commitments that may have long‐term implications. The exports of weapon systems do not happen in isolation, these are tripartite arrangements – Govt to Govt and the manufacturer.  Hence, with corruption widely rampant in the country, right from making dams and roads to issue of contracts, it is worth seeing as to how Indian Govts conduct this business and holds the hands of Adanis/ Amabanis/TATAs and sign weapon deals with foreign countries, manufactured by private companies.

Three. The quality of weapon systems and military equipment have to match the international standards and those standards have to be achieved at a fast pace. Any adverse report from the consumer will have very serious implications on the entire reputation. What if the Indian air force does not find the aircraft manufactured by an Indian company suitable for use, like the Nepalese army did not like the INSAS? What if the Night vision devices manufactured in India are not of the better quality as being used by Terrorists?

Four. The budget allocated for R& D is meager – Rs 300 crore. The countries seriously engaged in exporting of weapon systems spend huge sums of money, almost 2-5 % of their GDP.  Even Turkey spends more than us. Its to be seen as to how Adanis, Mahindras, Ambanis, TATAs, Bharat Forge and L&T along with PSUs like HAL, BEL etc give our Navy and Air Force the technology edge over our adversaries. In the absence of any worth while R & D ability to fully design and manufacture any significant combat weapon platform without the support of foreign suppliers for critical components, the excitement displayed appears to be without substance and comparable to same jingoism as being displayed earlier when MBT Arjun and INSAS were initially introduced. So, although one may feel delighted that now C 295 trasport aircraft will be anufactured in India , in collaboration with Airbus France but the fact is its Engine, avionics, etc will be imported and they will be assembled here.

Five. For R & D, for design , manufacture and marketing there has to be an Eco system. Though defence manufacturing has been open to private sector participation for well over a decade, but there was no level playing field and the PSUs  continued to enjoy a commanding role . However, with Govt easing the procedures , things may become better.

Conclusion

As they say, The proof of the pudding is in the eating, hence, one has to wait for the pudding to become palatable.

So, till then, when we may appreciate the current Govt for all the steps that it has taken to make National Security a high priority issue, we also must be aware that there has always been a tendency of the Govts to push the armed forces and compel them to accept sub standard military equipment in the guise of ATMNIRBHARTA.

They did it with Arjun, INSAS and even the Flying Coffins –MIG 21s continued  to serve at the cost of lives of many gallant Pilots and so there is enough reason to look at this new found excitement skeptically ..

When Hambantota port was leased out to China by the Srilankan Govt, it was obvious that sooner or later, China will use it for its naval warships . Now that the Chinese surveillance ship Yuan Wang 5 was docked at the Srilankan port, the fears that many had, have proved right.

The surveillance vessel is being used by Chinese military to track satellite, rocket and intercontinental ballistic missile launches. When the port is less than about 160 kilometers from mainland India, it is natural that even the missile firing range in Odisha can be within its range.

 In the South China Sea, China uses maritime militias ; they are like Non State actors, inorder to threaten any activity deemed inimical to Chinese sovereign interests. The Chinese policy in the Indian Ocean also appears to be a typical replica of what they did in South China sea ; a gradual and relentless encroachment to expand China’s tactical space outside its sphere of natural influence. The approach may not necessarily appear to be a threat initially to regional powers, but it gradually would undermine their capacity to compete with China. 

India’s worry now is if it does not react, China would use this ship’s visit as a precedence for future and soon we would find more Chinese warships docking in Sri Lanka frequently, citing variety of reasons. It’s a problem that has no easy answers, but India needs to act.

What is China up to?

For some it may appear that the Chinese are just imposing their military supremacy in the region, which every nation does.

Few may suggest that China is not a rival state but is just a competitor and it should be treated as one.

But in both cases we are missing to see what China is trying to achieve through these activities.

This was the same mistake that all successive Govts have been doing, since 1950, after Chinese took over Tibet. We preferred to keep quite, since then. We kept quite on Taiwan issue also, claiming it to be their internal issue, we despite the humiliating defeat in 1962 and numerous anti India activities did not pursue the Tibetan issue, in its right earnest, we once again preferred to be quite after the Galwan violence and rather withdrew our troops from the strategic heights that we captured, and on top that despite the Chinese occupying land across the LAC, we stated that ; NA KOI AAYA THA NAA KOYI AAYA HAI . In addition to above, we have time and again been lackadaisical in our approach towards China, signed a Peace agreement calling it The Line of Actual Control, thereby allowing China to keep changing it, we decided to dismantle in 2018 the designated Mountain Strike Corps(MSC) and when the crisis happened, in 2020, we hurriedly converted 1 Corps to a MSC (which had its operational role elsewhere) , this is sheer adhocism.

16 rounds of negotiation have taken place, since Galwan happened and the Chinese have not budged. Many veterans who are in media and also now Subramanian Swamy a Rajya Sabha member from the ruling party, have said that they are still occupying land on our side of LAC.

So, the successive Indian Govts including the current one have either tried to look the other way, preferred to wait and watch hoping that through diplomatic means the problem would be resolved or ……dissipated the scarce resources, thinking that this will will dissuade Chinese from intruding.

 In my opinion,  the Chinese are gradually forcing us to Disperse our scarce resources and dissipating them, scattering them all over, right from Indian Ocean to Bay of Bengal, Arabian sea and on a frontier of almost 3500 kms, making it difficult for us to challenge them in future. In 2013 they intruded in DBO sector, then Dokhlam and then Ladakh and now a ship appears in Srilanka. If we keep reacting and scattering our resources all along the wide frontage, we would be making their task easier.

Earlier the land border opposite China, was manned by few thousand troops, it is now being guarded by almost 3-4 times more troops and in addition more number of artillery guns, fighter aircrafts and so on. We may still not be eye ball to eye ball situation like on LC with Pakistan but there is now a similar situation.

The LC between India and Pakistan is thousand kms long and it requires enormous number of troops and equipment to guard it and deter Pakistan from trying any adventurism, so imagine how many would be required to guard the LAC extending to almost 3500 kms, particularly when the fear is that it can be intruded from anywhere.

With the initiative to encroach and intrude into Indian territory lies with China, it can make the LAC active as per its wish in any of the three sectors ; The Eastern sector which spans Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, the Middle sector in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and the Western sector in Ladakh and We will be reacting each time the Chinese troops are sited, like it happened in Dokhlam and then in Ladakh.

The deployment on LC and use of militants enabled Pakistan to extend the war front, deep into India’s territory and now China is also doing the same.

However, the rate at which China is manufacturing attack aircrafts and warships,( it has even surpassed USA), it is unlikely that a conventional approach can ever help us countering the threat imposed by China, on such a wide front ; extending from Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and then to Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean and Arabian sea, both economically as well as militarily.

We would need colossal amount of resources to do that.

More so, when, in another 5-10 years almost half of Indian army would be comprising of Agniveers whose impact on the operational particularly the offensive capabilities of Indian armed forces cannot be rightfully assessed now, dissipating resources may be detrimental to our security. However, If it does have an impact then this would further compound the problems.

Many security experts like Brig Bhonsle of Security Risks Group, in his article have expressed the similar opinion. He said “For all practical purposes the LAC has been converted into the line of control or LOC with Pakistan, but without the customary exchange of artillery, mortar and small arms fire, at least for now. The permanent deployment of men and material along this long frontier, that too, in that treacherous terrain is going to be economically challenging.”

 China has gone so far ahead of India technologically, militarily and economically that India is now going to find difficult to face this challenge, if it allows its resources to be dissipated along this huge frontage, And if it does so, it would only be playing into Chinese hands.

In view of the above, we need to be innovative and create a situation that China is not able to compel us to dissipate our resources.

This can be achieved only when we start thinking with a view to strike back rather than from a defensive frame of mind. The whole approach to a game changes when one team plays to win and the other plays to avoid losing. For instance, in 2013 when we upgraded a landing strip for the Super Hercules Indian Airforce transport plane to land at DBO.

Right now, our entire approach is based on Defending and avoiding to create an unpleasant situation. If China can achieve what it has by docking a Ship at Srilankan port, we also need to think what we can do to achieve the same. This tactics of organizing Dalai Lama’s visit to Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh is now outdated and will not fetch any result.

 A realization, its high time, must come that every inch of such a huge frontage cannot be defended by scattering resources ; aircrafts, warships, guns and troops all along the 4000 km frontage, we must make an endeavor to keep our resources concentrated and compel enemy to dissipate its resources. And this can only happen, if we develop a credible capability to strike at the point of our choosing.

                                          After more than four months of gap, The 16th round of high-level military talks held between India and China ended on …17 Jul22. The gap between the 15th and 16th round of corps commander-level talks has been the longest ever since the standoff at Ladakh began in May 2020.

Although the situation in eastern Ladakh figured prominently in talks between External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Bali on July 7, but the border talks held by the Army Generals resulted in nothing.

The reports say that - The focus was on resolving outstanding issues in the remaining friction points along the LAC in eastern Ladakh.

The reports also claim that the aim was to cool tensions at friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh in the backdrop of outstanding problems at Patrol Point-15 near Kongka La, Depsang Bulge in Daulet Beg Oldi ( DBO) sector and Charding Nullah Junction (CNJ) in Demchok sector being a sticking point in the ongoing negotiations.

Notwithstanding the above, as was expected, both sides after the talks stated that the talks were "constructive and forward-looking" .

For a layman it is really confusing as to –

What are those Friction points and what are those outstanding problems when PM says ; Koi Aaya hi Nahin .

The retired military experts with media claim that Chinese have occupied land across LAC in DBO sector region.

And now it has further enhanced the credibility of this report when Subramanian Swamy who has a reputation of being blunt and exposing many tainted ministers in the past , raised this same issue.

He said “ The government is lying about the ongoing Indo-China border disputes. He claimed that whatever is being said about no one from China entering Indian territory, is all false. They (government) keep saying that there is no intrusion, that no-one has entered or exited, but it's not true. Either the army personnel deployed there are lying to them, or they themselves think that such kind of lies should be pushed forward for whatever reasons,"

In its annual report released November 3, last year the Department of Defense of US, said that “sometime in 2020”, China built a “large 100-home civilian village inside disputed territory between the Tibet Autonomous Region and Arunachal Pradesh. It also said China has been taking “incremental and tactical actions to press its claims at the LAC with India”.

It was in 2013 that a stand off between India and China took place in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector in eastern Ladakh, thereafter the next year, the two sides were once again locked in a two week stand off in the Chumar Sector of Ladakh, thereafter, in 2017, the two armies were back again facing each other in Dokhlam, when Chinese troops started constructing a road and then came the Ladakh standoff in 2020, that led to Galwan clash.

Although these skirmishes are not new as they have a long history but what is now increasingly becoming evident ; China is blatantly using every opportunity to belittle India diplomatically as well as Militarily.

India’s response on the other hand is meek ; despite the tension and boycott by other nations India attended the winter Olympics at China, its trade with China is increasing, despite losing gallant soldiers at Galwan, India withdrew the troops from strategic heights that our soldiers had captured in 2020 expecting a quid pro quo.

But till today despite numerous meetings Chinese have not relented.

Criticizing yester year leaders who did not have the fortune to lead a prosperous India and one of the world’s largest armies is easy, but what is STOPPING India now ; a fourth largest economy and one of the largest professional standing armed forces to make China listen.

When Xi Ping is now desperate to show off his strength to USA and Taiwan, India also must poke at least its little finger if not on LAC atleast in POK at a critical point that may hurt China’s interests.

If China can construct a Highway through POK ,  can deploy its armed forces in Gilgit region despite India’s objections,  occupies land across LAC and claims it as theirs, supports Pakistan in UNO to save terrorists, then Its high time the Indian Leadership breaks its silence.

And the first step would be to tell the people of India ; where exactly are the Chinese. Have they occupied land across LAC or not.

If people are not taken into confidence, then you are making them vulnerable to propaganda and the day lid opens up, it will not only hurt your integrity but also be very damaging for the entire Nation. 

The Leader must know the grave consequences of hiding the TRUTH because the ENEMY knows that you are hiding the information from your people.

Its high time we pay heed to what Lt Gen Ajay Shukla wrote in his article titled ;

" There’s a Chinese ‘storm’ coming. India needs to consider 5 factors to face this challenge".( https://theprint.in/opinion/theres-a-chinese-storm-coming-india-needs-to-consider-5-factors-to-face-this-challenge/939869/

And I would add one important consideration ; India must never shy away from displaying its annoyance, which some call ; nuisance value.

But that can only happen when the Leadership has ensured transparency.

                                  Till as late as 2019 , whenever a terror strike took place in India, the discussions on media used to be very predictable. Pakistani retired Generals  used to warn India of severe repercussions and boasted that in case they are pushed , they will not mind using their nuclear weapons. As a result, Many Indians also used to caution their fellow countrymen saying that - Pakistan is a rogue and irresponsible nation, if pushed to a wall, it may use nuclear weapons against India .

As a result we did nothing for almost 20 years.

Then came Mr Modi, with a rallying cry ; MODI HAI TO MUMKIN HAI. Two strikes against Pakistan one using land force and the other from air , he not only surprised the Pakis but also exposed their BLUFF.

Thereafter, the Pakis never boasted of their nuclear weapons and no arm chair military strategist warned us of Pakistan being irresponsible or crazy or mad.

All of a sudden Pakistan started behaving responsibly.

Perhaps because we had proved to them that we Indians can also become irrational, irresponsible and crazier than them.

This served our purpose as the external enemy now could not take us for granted, as we could do anything.

Putin is also using the same strategy of projecting himself as irrational and in my opinion the world could not catch on and in the bargain he has done so much of damage Not only to Ukraine but also the economies of many other nations.

Theory of Madman.

The madman theory is a political theory that  has been commonly associated with Mr Nixon, the US President, when he and hhisadministarion tried to make the leaders of hostile Communist block nations think he was irrational and volatile and could do anything, thus forcing those leaders to avoid provoking the United States, fearing an unpredictable American response.

Nixon utilized the madman strategy in his first term in the Oval Office to solve the problem of the Vietnam War. His aim was to appear to be irrational and unstable, so as to convince Russia that he was moments away from pulling the trigger that would lead to an all-out Nuclear War. If his tactic succeeded, Nixon hoped that Russia would pressure the Vietnamese to capitulating.

Let me explain with an example;

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